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April 29, 2016

Sports Profit System has an NBA and an MLB pick tonight. The baseball selection was released yesterday.

1: Take LA Clippers +10.5 spread against Portland Trail Blazers for 3% of the bankroll.

The Los Angeles Clippers are being completely written off by everyone. The betting public is naturally 'reactive' as opposed to being one step ahead of the game. They often over-react to what they saw last and simply assume the same is going to happen again! They made their mind up that they are going to bet on Portland in this game and it almost doesn't matter what number Vegas sets, they're siding with the home side! To sharps however, every team has a price and every market has a tipping point. And while we believe the Blazers will win this game and move on to face the Warriors, we don't expect it to be a blowout. We believe this spread is inflated due to the current public percetion of these two sides and the value is on the underdog as they likely put up a better fight than most anticipate and keep this within single-digits.

The Clippers have had to deal with adversity all season long. They are a resilient and experienced group and one that doesn't go down without a fight! All their hardships this year as well as in recent seasons has instilled a determined character in them and while they are up against it now as far as progressing to the next round goes, this team still has a lot of pride and isn't ready to just lay down! It would surprise us if this was as one-sided a game as most anticipate. Now that LA has played a game without Chris Paul in the lineup, and a couple of extra days to prepare and come up with an altered game plan, we believe they'll have a better idea of how to keep it competitive. They actually put up a pretty good effort in the first half of Game 5 against these same Blazers before getting outplayed in the second half. Expect them to have a better 2nd half showing in this contest in what will likely result in staying with this generous point-spread.

Doc Rivers is an excellent coach and a great motivator! He'll be telling his team that they have nothing to lose and that no one is expecting them to win this game so they can play loose and free. He'll find a clever way of making that locker room see the positive in the situation as opposed to dwell on the obvious negative impact of not having two of their best players. This is a squad made up of veterans like Crawford, Pierce, Prigioni and many others that have ample post-season experience and know what it takes to perform in matchups like this. The Blazers on the other hand, have all the pressure on them in this spot. They are expected to not only close out the series but to do so by a BIG margin and that might just be a bit too much for a young overachieving team that was not even supposed to make the playoffs!

Portland has been great in the 'underdog' role as they've proven to be a plucky team that is not to be understesimated. But now that the tables have turned and they are installed as hefty favorites, they might just struggle in this unfamiliar role. Nerves might play a part in missing some shots that they normally make as this isn't a team with much experience in closing series out! All the pressure is on them in this matchup and some players won't be used to that. Guards Austin Rivers and Pablo Prigioni along with 6th Man of the Year, Jamal Crawford are bound to perform better than they did in Game 5 and that should see them keep this game closer than people think. We expect JJ Redick and company to keep this within single-digits.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Clippers are 10-3 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss!
  • Blazers are 1-4 ATS after leading in a playoff series over the last 3 years.
  • Clippers have actually won 20 of 30 games after allowing 105 points or more!

2: Take LA Angels (-111) on the ML against Texas Rangers risking 3.33% to win 3%.
(Santiago and Lewis must both start for wager to have action)

To say Ranger’s pitcher Colby Lewis has been hit hard by the current Angels’ lineup would be an understatement! The Angels' bats are hitting an impressive .345 against him and that in a large sample size (nearly 180 at-bats)! The Angels' success against him has resulted in an ugly 3-10 record with a bloated 6.58 ERA against the Halos since 2010! One of the issues for Colby Lewis is that he's had a rough time with 4 Angel hitters in particular: Trout, Pujols, Cron and Kalhoun! What makes that an even bigger problem is that those four often follow each other in Mike Scioscia's lineup! He doesn't have the luxury of being able to pick and choose his battles therefore and walk one because the other will get him.

While Lewis has struggled, Angels' pitcher, Hector Santiago has never lost to the Rangers in Arlington! He is perfect 5-0 with a 2.23 ERA in 7 starts and has had a lot of success baffling this Rangers' lineup. The ambitious southpaw is off to another great start and is quietly looking to establish himself as LA's Ace. Let’s not forget that Santiago made the All-Star team in 2015 after a stellar first half to the season before he cooled off in the second. He's pitching very well at the moment and has already beaten Texas once this season. It's no secret that left-handed hurlers have often given this lineup trouble since their main power hitters like Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland are lefties.

LA is a good team but one that sometimes lacks confidence. Now that their offense has finally started to find their groove and they've swept the World Champs, KC Royals, they should head into Texas confident. It’s also worth noting that these two teams have fared very differently after a day of rest. The Rangers often come out sluggish after a day off, given their ugly 11-23 record in the last 3 seasons which means they've lost more than double the number of games they've won in this situation! Meanwhile, the Halos' coaching staff has made sure they come out focused and well rested after a scheduled off day, since LA is an impressive 27-14 after one day of rest over that same span (L3 years)! Recent history tells us then that the LA Angels might benefit more from Thursday's 'off-day' than their hosts.

It's important for the Halos to open the series with a win, given that their next two matchups will be against tough lefties in Holland and Hamels! LA is just one game behind Texas in the standings and will be sporting an identical (12-11) record with a 'W' over their AL West rivals! It's worth pointing out that the Rangers have not made a fielding error in 5 games and we wouldn't be surprised to see them commit one or two in this game. This is arguably the Angels' most winnable game of the series against a pitcher that they have had no problem hitting and they also have several 'situational' edges. Back them at this short price as they should have been installed as -140 favorites in our opinion.

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