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April 28, 2016

Sports Profit System is releasing a Friday pick, a day in advance to take advantage of the early attractive odds!

Note: Unfortunately Pirates vs. Rockies never took place due to inclement weather! The wager was therefore cancelled.

That was the only game that had sufficient wagering value on Thursday in our opinion.

Take Pittsburgh Pirates (+100) on the ML against Colorado Rockies risking 3% to win 3%.

Clint Hurdle's Pirates are not only the better team in this contest but they have several situational advantages in the finale of this 4-game series. The Pittsburgh offense has crossed home plate 24 times in winning the first 3 games! Their bats have been firing on all cylinders and have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last 7 games! That has helped them win 8 of the last 11 and stay in contention. And yet in a division (NL Central) that was the very best in baseball last year and looks to be a particular strong one again in 2016, there's no room for complacency and they understand that. That's because perennial contenders, St. Louis Cardinals, have been winning as well while the young and ambitious Cubs look like a World Series contender this year! Despite 4 straight wins, the Bucs find themselves 3 games behind Joe Maddon's Chicago and will need to continue piling up W's in order to stay in the hunt.

The Colorado Rockies may well be deflated and dejected going into this series finale. That's because they gave it their all last night and yet still fell short. The Rox battled back from a 7-0 hole to cut the deficit and eventually tie it at 8-8 and send the game to extra innings! Then despite several opportunities to hit a walk-off winner and finally get one over the Pirates, they failed. That eventually gave Jody Mercer an opportunity to hit what turned out to be a game-winning double in the 12th inning! For Walt Weiss' side to battle so hard in a matchup that took 5 hours to be completed, but ultimately fall short, is demoralizing. Such losses are more difficult to shake off and given the short turnaround, with this being an afternoon game, the winning team often has the momentum and mental edge. It doesn't help that the Rockies have been getting out-slugged in their own Coors Field and their confidence was already fragile going into yesterday's game. The Bucs now own a psychological advantage over their opponents and will be looking for the sweep, knowing it's entirely possible, having defeated the Rockies 8 straight times in Colorado!

As a former Rockie, Juan Nicasio will have no shortage of motivation in this contest. He made an impressive start for the Dodgers at this ball park last year and is an improved pitcher since his earlier years. His stellar performances in Spring Training were such that they could not be ignored and it earned him a spot in the rotation. He knows Coors Field very well as he's actually made more starts here than Colorado's scheduled starter (Tyler Chatwood) and understands the unique challenge it presents.

One final edge that the Bucs have in this matchup, and a very important one is the bullpen. Not only does Pittsburgh have the much better set of relievers, but they are also more fresh and ready to be called upon. That's because Colorado has seen its last two starters pitch only 3 innings! Jon Gray lasted only 3.2 frames in a game that needed 12 innings to be decided! That made the coaching staff empty out the 'pen and on top of that, the previous day was not much better for them. That's when Mexican veteran, Jorge De La Rosa got only 9 outs before exiting with an injury! To say the relief core has been overworked then would be an understatement! And for a bullpen that was already among the league's worst, that is problematic because now they not only need Chatwood to silence the red-hot Pittsburgh bats but they need him to go deep in the ball game. That might be too much to ask of him. The Pirates should not be the underdog here as they have several advantages and are more than capable of winning this game.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Chatwood is 0-8 as a short favorite (-100 to -125) at home!
  • Pirates have won their last 8 games at Coors Field!
  • Rockies have allowed more runs (133) than any other MLB club!

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