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April 27, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Texas Rangers (-128) on the ML against NY Yankees risking 3.84% to win 3%.
(Sabathia must start for wager to have action)

Tonight the American League East meets the American League West as the New York Yankees will take on the Texas Rangers in game three of their three game series from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. The Yankees managed to take Game 1 of this series, 3-1, but the Rangers rallied yesterday and put a complete beat down on the Bronx Bombers, evening up the series with a resounding 10-1 victory.

The New York Yankees are no doubt an historic franchise whose name is synonymous with championships, but let's face it, this team is simply getting old and age has started to catch up with them. There was a time that players like Mike Teixeira, Alex Rodrigues, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran being on the same team would produce a top five offense, but that is certainly not the case this year as the Yanks come in ranked 20th in the league in scoring, averaging just 3.83 runs per game, while also ranking 20th in hitting at .241. The Bombers have scored 70 runs on the season which is tied with Tampa for the worst mark in AL and average under 3 runs per game versus southpaws this season! They just don't have the power right now or the consistency to be effective is a big reason why they are in last place in the AL East with a (losing) 8-10 record.

As mediocre as their offense has been this season, their pitching has not been much better as they come into this contest ranked 18th in the league in ERA. Their bullpen has been respectable to start the season, with an ERA of just 2.97 however their starting pitching has certainly been lacking. The New York starting rotation has an ERA of 4.79 and a big reason for that has been the struggle of tonight's starter, CC Sabathia. There is no question that Sabathia's best years are behind him as he is just 1-1 with a 5.28 ERA through three starts this season. For those who may believe that this is simply a slump, last season he went 6-10 with a 4.73 ERA in 29 starts, including going just 3-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 15 games on the highway. He has slowly regressed and his velocity is simply not where it once was which is evident since he has only lasted 4 innings in each of his last 2 starts. He has some success record wise, going 11-2 in his lifetime against Texas; however that has been at the saving grace of his potent offense of year's past as his 5.00 lifetime ERA tells a completely different story of how he has fared against the Rangers' lineup.

The Rangers has been struggling prior to last night's win and a big reason for that had been the short disappearance of their offense, having scored just 5 runs in their previous 4 games. They exploded for 10 runs last night which was a resemblance to their hot bats which saw them score 24 runs during their recent 4 game winning streak. Last night's offensive explosion could have been a sign of things to come for the Rangers and given how they have fared against Sabathia in the past, we could be in for a high scoring game tonight. If that is indeed the case, the Rangers would have a significant edge with their bats. Elvis Andrus has 10 hits in 22 at-bats against Sabathia and his hitting an impressive 0.455!

While the Yankees pitching situation is not ideal at the moment, Rangers starter, Martin Perez has a chance at redemption tonight when he takes the mound. Perez has only logged one career start against the Bronx Bombers and it is likely one that he will never forget. He was absolutely tagged in that start, giving up 8 earned run in just the first inning of a 21-5 loss last season at this same venue. A loss like that is something that can haunt a pitcher and there is no doubt that Perez has had this series circled on his calendar and will be motivated to make up for that performance by putting in a quality start tonight. Perez is 3-0 with an impressive 2.31 ERA in his last 7 home starts!

Sabathia's numbers have been skewed and hidden by a normally potent Yankee's lineup over the past few seasons, but with the Bombers struggling to plate runs this season we believe CC's shortcomings on the mound will be much more visible tonight. The Rangers' bats should be able to do damage against Sabathia and put up enough runs to come away with the victory.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter!
  • Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter!
  • Rangers are 14-5 in Perez's last 19 starts vs. a team with a losing record!
  • Yankees are 5-11 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30!

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