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April 23, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

In addition, a pick has been released early, a day in advance for Sunday!

Take Dallas Mavericks +9 spread against OKC Thunder for 3% of the bankroll.

The Mavericks had all of the momentum in this series having already taken over home court advantage after defeating the Thunder 85-84 in Oklahoma City on Monday night; however they let it slip through their fingers by getting blown out on their home court 131-102 in Game 3! Game 4 tonight is actually an extremely pivotal game for the Mavs as they likely will not be able to bounce back in this series should they lose tonight. This is arguably a must-win situation for Dallas and we expect them to play like it. That being said, Dallas is a huge underdog in this matchup and even if they happen to fall short of picking up the victory, we do believe they will at least make it a competitive game.

There is no question that with Dallas having just been blown out on their own floor that the initial perception of this team has been somewhat altered. Let’s not forget however that the Mavericks are a team that uses those types of losses as motivation which is evident by the fact that they are 13-5 ATS in this situation this season. They may be lacking in some areas compared to their opponents however this is still a team that has shown a lot of heart, determination and have veteran leadership in place. Those characteristics alone should allow them to be competitive in such an important situation.

As impressive as Oklahoma City's win was on Thursday night, they were in a similar bounce back situation themselves so their performance really was not that surprising. Kevin Durant was coming off his worst shooting performance of his career and was primed for a big showing in that contest. The Thunder shot over 57% from the field, which is uncharacteristic of the Mavericks defense to allow and highly unlikely to repeat! We also don’t believe Oklahoma City will have as good a shooting performance in this contest. In the second half of the season the Mavericks were suffocating opposing offenses which was a big reason for them making the playoffs this season. They clawed their way into the postseason by slowing down the tempo of the game and playing solid defense, which is actually what they did to take Game 2 away from OKC. They now need to get back to that type of mentality for this game and we believe they will do just that.

Oklahoma City is unquestionably the better team in this series, there is no debate about that; however that doesn’t mean every game will be a blowout! This is an inflated spread. These two teams have a long history of closely contested games in this venue over the last few years. Rick Carlisle knows how to organize and motivate his team and there is no question that the Mavericks will have a solid game plan coming into this contest. Oklahoma City may in fact come away with a victory, however given the determination of the Mavericks, we believe they are laying too many points on the road and they should come into play at the end.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Mavs are 13-5 ATS after a double-digit loss!
  • Thunder are just 13-20 ATS after a double-digit win.
  • Thunder are just 23-32 ATS after scoring 105 points or more!

Bankroll Tutorial:

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