April 20, 2016
Sports Profit System is riding a hot 26-13 winning streak in NBA and has two more picks tonight!
1: Take Portland Blazers +9 spread (buy half a point) against LA Clippers for 3% of the bankroll.
The Trail Blazers are a better team than they showed in the series opener and will look to make ammends tonight. This under-rated squad has excellent chemistry on the court and that makes for a cohesive unit where every player perfectly knows his role. They have unselfish players throughout the roster and play hard for each other. It also helps that they have talented but relatively low-profile players like Gerald Henderson and Allen Crabbe coming off the bench and contributing in a big way! The Portland bench is one of the best in the league and is capable of keeping them in a game even when the starting lineup isn't having much success. Of course, it's not often that you can contain both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum as usually one, if not both, take over a game. That high-scoring back-court duo is one of the most dynamic in the league and is equally as adept at scoring as assisting! That makes them incredible dangerous since double-teaming them may limit their individual shooting prowess but they then have the ability to play the role of a 'fasciliator' very well and dish it out to teammates for high-percentage open-looks.
The Clippers have their own high-scoring guard tandem but JJ Redick is much ore a scorer than a fascilitator and is therefore not the dynamic playmaker that Blazers' SG, CJ McCollum is. He is nonetheless excellent at what he does and will have to be watched very closely. The Trail Blazers got blown out in Game 1 by losing every quarter! A repeat of that is highly unlikely. The Clippers were fully focused for 4 full quarters in that contest and that has proven historically rare for a team that is leading a series. In this second game, expect the plucky underdogs to give a much better effort and make it a tight and entertaining game to watch.
While we don't necessarily expect Portland to even up the series at one game a piece, we do anticipate a closely contested battle. LA is laying entirely too many points in this spot and is unlikely to cover the spread even if they win the game. This is a matchup that may well go right down to the wire and be decided in the final possession or two. If that is the case, the points are extremely precious and will likely come into play. The Blazers understand that falling to a 0-2 hole in the Playoffs means your chances of progressing is very slim given that only 2 teams out of 53 have made it through since 2009! Look for them to give it their all and make adjustments that pay dividends. Terry Stotts has already proven his tactical acumen this season and will have his team ready having watched and analyzed the Game 1 film. The Blazers were an excellent defensive team in the second half of the season and rode that into a 5th seed playoff berth that no one expected! This is a talented squad that flew under the radar and is now being doubted by everyone after that ugly defeat. They're not panicking however; They now their worth and will be motivated to showcase their skills. After allowing the Clippers to shoot nearly 54% from the field, expect a more defensively organized performance tonight. That should allow them to stay within this generous spread even if they fall short of the 'upset' outright win.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Blazers are 10-4 ATS after two days of rest!
- Clippers are just 3-9 ATS after two days of rest.
- Blazers are 13-8 ATS following a double-digit loss!
2: Take Charlotte Hornets +5 spread against Miami Heat for 3% of the bankroll.
The betting public is generally one step behind and tends to over-react to what they saw last. This rematch provides a classic example of that as the vast majority are wagering on the Heat, incorrectly assuming it'll be another 'walk in the park'! We highly doubt that. The chances of another blowout win for Miami are very slim and in fact they may have a tough time winning this game. Even if they do edge it however, we believe it'll be a tight win and one where the 5 points come into play and likely prevent them from covering the spread! This has all the makings of a closely contested battle and it wouldn't surprise us if the Hornets even found a way to even the series at 1-1 by stealing one on the road.
These two well-coached teams are evenly matched up as evident by their identical 48-34 regular season records! There's not much to separate them and Game 1 will prove to be an anomaly. That was a strange night on many levels as one team was firing on all cylinders and shot an incredible 57% from the field while the other couldn't get anything going. The fact that Miami scored 123 points which is a franchise-record for a playoff game says a lot! They never achieved that kind of offensive efficiency even when LeBron James was in town. The Heat are a solid team but to expect the likes of Luol Deng to score 30+ points again and for the Charlotte defense to provide no resistance whatsoever would be naive. Steve Clifford's Hornets have responded in each and every game after allowing an opponent to shoot over 50% from the field and tonight will be no different. This is a squad that can lock down defensively and get meaningful stops and tends to that after a defeat.
Kemba Walker admitted to the media that they did not follow coach Clifford's game plan and paid for it! Expect Charlotte to be a lot more disciplined in Game 2 and to keep their composure even if they do fall behind. It didn't help that they allowed Miami to score a franchise record by putting up 41 points on the scoreboard in the 1st quarter! Look for them to come out of the gate focused and fired up tonight as they never had the lead in the opener! The Heat never trailed in that first game but will find it much tougher this time around as we believe they'll be behind at times tonight and they'll be the ones that'll need to rally and mount a comeback. Let's not forget that the Hornets are 7-1 since the All-Star break following a loss and have scored an average of 106 points in that contest! We don't necessarily expect them to score as many tonight but do see them getting close that and doing enough to squeeze out a 'W'. Even if they do fall short however, we anticipate the points proving precious and Charlotte cashing in tickets for their brave backers.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Hornets are 18-8 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss.
- Hornets have actually won 9 of 13 games after two full days of rest!
- Hornets are 23-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons!
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