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April 14, 2016

There is one pick today and it is a huge underdog!

Take Atlanta Braves (+188) on the ML against Washington Nationals risking 3% to win 5.64%.
(Teheran must start for wager to have action)

The Atlanta Braves head into this contest winless on the season, however we don't believe they are a poor team by any stretch of the imagination. They are significant underdogs given their recent results, however we don't believe this contest is a lopsided as many people may think. In our opinion, this team has nearly a 45% chance to win this game whereas the odds are insinuating the Braves have much less of a chance, which signifies value. To get nearly a 2 to 1 return on investment for a team that should be extremely motivated to win, exhibits a tremendous risk vs reward proposition.

There is no question that the Braves will be desperate to end their current 8 game losing streak and pick up their first win of the season. They should have a solid chance at doing so against Stephen Strasburg this afternoon. Yes, Strasburg is a quality pitcher and no doubt the "Ace" of this Nationals team, however he was given the day off yesterday due to illness and even though he is getting the start, may still not be at 100% and have some lingering effects of his illness which could affect his performance in this contest.

Julio Teheran will get the start for the Braves in this contest and he is certainly no easy-out. He is a quality pitcher himself and was a 2014 All-Star. He has had success against the Nationals in the past and was solid against them in his first outing this season. He did come away with a no-decision so if the Nationals do in fact win this game, which we are not fully convinced they will, it likely won't be while Teheran on the mound.

The Nats have really dominated this series up until this point; however it is incredibly hard to sweep a team, especially a team like the Braves in a 4 game series. We wouldn't be surprised if the Washington players come into this game just a bit overconfident and already looking forward to their next series. Atlanta may still be in a transition and rebuilding phase, but this is still a team that has a lot of pride and won't go down without a fight.

Atlanta may be 0-8 however they could very easily be 4-4 on the season had they not blown a few late leads in games. We believe the odds should have been +150 at most in this contest but because they're winless and nobody wants to back them, the oddsmakers have inflated the price on the hot-hand of the Nationals. At these current odds, all of the value is on the underdog.

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