April 7, 2016 (3:55 PM ET)
There is one MLB pick tonight. Please scroll down to view it.
SPS was founded with the intention of proving that the sports-betting market can be the most lucrative investment option for savvy investors. Over the last 5 years, we have proven that fact by showing our clients substantial gains in their starting bankrolls. Despite that success, we still feel that we have not been operating to our full potential and have been held back at times by one issue in particular.
A handicapper’s daily work consists of analyzing the card (scheduled games) and identifying market inefficiencies which either overvalue or undervalue a team facing a certain situation. Spreads and odds fluctuate throughout the day which can both open up, as well as eliminate value. In order to fully capitalize on the value of plays, the posting time of picks is crucial.
Currently, SPS operates under a self-imposed window of releasing picks between the hours of 12:00 PM to 4:00 PM EST on weekdays and 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST on weekends. While this window of opportunity may be convenient for some, it severely restricts our ability to profit from value plays that are identified outside of these pre-selected times. This translates to missing out on many winning picks and ultimately prevents us from achieving optimal results. That’s because by the time 12:00 PM ET comes around, the ‘value’ has already been sucked out of some matchups due to line movement. That is the reason there were no NBA picks tonight.
In order to operate at our full potential and be able to not only identify but capitalize on value when it presents itself, we need the flexibility of being able to release picks at different times. This allows us to post selections in the morning on certain days while going for a later release (if we anticipate favorable movement) on others. In some cases, it may even result in picks being put up the night before, a day in advance! At the end, our only goal is to provide winning picks, and the way to do that is by taking advantage of 'soft lines'.
As such, effective immediately, we are implementing a policy change in regards to the timing of posts. Picks will be released at any time, with no preset window in place. The only restriction will be that a pick must be posted in the Members Area a minimum of 2 hours before the start of a given matchup to give clients ample time to place their wagers. SPS will then notify clients by email each time a pick has been released, as well as tweet about it on Twitter. We highly recommend all members follow us on Twitter to receive the latest updates. Members will continue logging into the Members Area as usual to view the picks and pre-game analyses.
We have no doubt that this change will prove highly beneficial to our long-term winning percentages!
Take LA Angels (-112) on the Money Line against Texas Rangers risking 3.36% to win 3%.
The Halos are winless so far, having dropped their first two games to the highly rated Chicago Cubs. The Cubbies are arguably even better than last year and luckily for the Anaheim club, they won't be seeing them too often given that the two play in different leagues (AL vs. NL). Nonetheless, the fact that the Halos have started the season 0-2 in front of their passionate fans, means Mike Trout and company will be extremely motivated to get that first 'W' out of the way and have an excellent chance to do so tonight.
Mike Scioscia has been in charge for over a decade and commands great respect within the clubhouse! His players know there is pressure on them to perform and will be up to the task. They are going up against Derek Holland, a pitcher that has had his fair share of struggles against LA over the years. The emotional lefty owns a poor 5.32 ERA in his career against the Angels! Albert Pujols and Trout in particular have given him problems in the past while new acquisitions, Geovany Soto and Andrelton Simmons have also had success against him. All in all, this is a pitcher that the Angels know well and have faced frequently over the years. It also doesn't help that Holland has typically started the season slow. The Texas southpaws has a career 4.42 ERA in the month of April and usually needs a few starts under his belt before he finds his rhythm.
Hector Santiago's season was a tale of two halves in 2015 as he was exceptional in the first part which earned him an All-Star nod before misfiring later on. It was revealed that he'd been carrying an injury in those final appearances which partly explains his struggles. Nevertheless, the 28-year old lefty finally got the recognition he deserved and should be more confident heading into this campaign than in years past. He has good stuff and can navigate even the most difficult of lineups when on his game. He had no issues handling this Rangers lineup last year as he faced them 6 times and posted an impressive 2.10 ERA in those games! His excellent outings were one of the reasons LA took the season series from Texas by winning 12 of 19 games!
While losses to the Cubs can be forgiven, failure to register a victory tonight would be a hard pill to swallow given that these two are division rivals and Angels are playing their 3rd straight game at home! Having had the day off to reflect on their miscues, we believe they will be fired up and ready to make amends tonight. They're going up against a Rangers staff that used 6 pitchers yesterday and five the day before! The Texas bullpen has already been overworked and includes a closer that was tagged for 5 runs yesterday in the 9th inning! Shawn Tolleson will be short on confidence as a result as well as new addition, Tom Wilhelmsen, who was hit hard in the previous game. The LA relievers on the other hand will be more fresh and ready to be called upon. Their bullpen is in a better situation tonight and might just edge a close game for them even if Santiago doesn't out-duel Holland. Look for the Halos to celebrate their first win by the end of the night as they have numerous advantages. There's great value backing them at these short odds.
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