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September 30, 2015 (Posted at 2:00 PM ET)

There are two baseball picks today.

Sports Profit System is first to admit it when it misses the mark but let's not forget that champions are crowned over a season and NOT just a few days. It's been a very profitable year and MLB season (82-61 record)! True success is defined by long-term results.

Despite a temporary dip in form, SPS clients have cashed out 26 of their last 40 baseball bets!
 

1: Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line (-162) against Baltimore Orioles risking 4.86% of bankroll to win 3%.
(Stroman and Gonzalez must start for wager to have action)

This pick is for the FIRST game of today's double-header between which is a makeup game from yesterday's rain postponed contest. The nightcap is projected to have RA Dickey and Kevin Gausman on the hill. The Blue Jays are currently holding the top spot in the AL East and can clinch the division with a win today! They will also be looking to extend their American League lead over the Royals to secure themselves home field advantage through the entire playoff. Therefore even though they have post-season secured, they still have a lot to play for!

In order to do that, the Jays will send Marcus Stroman to the mound in hopes that he can continue to pitch as well as he has this season. Since coming off the disabled list, Stroman has been spectacular with a 1.89 ERA and has won all three of his starts this season. He has been sensational and will look to continue that as he proves to John Gibbons and the rest of the organization that he's worth the 2nd spot in the rotation behind David Price for the important upcoming playoff games. The Orioles have only had a handful of at-bats against the young righty and one of the few that has had good success against him, Adam Jones remains out for this contest.

After looking like a postseason team for much of the year, the Orioles have dropped like a rock recently and have been eliminated from contention. They are unlikely to even finish with a .500 record at this point. They come into this contest having lost 4 in a row and many players may have decided that the season is over and are simply going through the motions right now. Buck Showalter is giving some fringe players time and also experimenting with a few things such as the fact that Manny Machado will start at short-stop today after being the 3rd baseman all season.

Baltimore will send Miguel Gonzalez to the mound in this contest. Gonzalez has had a poor season having gone just 9-11 with a 4.85 ERA. It's worth noting that the Mexican last started a game on August 30th and has been out for a month with shoulder tendinitis! He'll probably be rusty in this outing and that spells bad news against the most potent offense in the Majors!

With the Jays able to clinch the division with a win in this contest, we don't believe they are going to prolong things any further. They are the team that is playing much better baseball and the one with the better pitcher on the mound. As long as they don't come into this contest overconfident and complacent, their big bats should be able to do enough damage against Gonzalez to come away with the victory. Given the way that both clubs are playing, we feel the odds on the Blue Jays should have been much higher, around the -180 mark and therefore there's value here.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The Blue Jays have won 40 of their last 54 games!
  • The Blue Jays are 14-5 after a day of rest this season!
  • The Blue Jays have won 6 of their last 8 road games and all 3 of Stroman's starts.
  • Baltimore is just 13-23 when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season!
     

2: Take Texas Rangers on the Money Line (-172) against Detroit Tigers risking 5.16% of bankroll to win 3%.
(Gallardo and Boyd must start for wager to have action)

The Texas Rangers currently occupy the top spot in the AL West and hold a 2 game lead over the LA Angels. With such a closely contested race in the West, the Rangers will need to continue to pile up the wins in the final week of the season. Against a Detroit team who basically gave up on the season after dealing David Price near the trade deadline, the Tigers could simply be counting the days to the end of the regular season. There is no doubt the Rangers will be the more motivated team in this contest.

Yovani Gallardo will take the mound for the Rangers tonight. He has pitched well at home this season with 7 of his 12 wins coming in Arlington. He faced off with the Tigers in Detroit earlier in the season pitching six scoreless frames while also fanning 4 batters in the Motor City. The veteran has been consistent for the Rangers this year, and we don't believe he is going to allow a rookie to outduel him on the mound tonight. Detroit also used nearly their entire bullpen last night, while Cole Hamels gave the Rangers 6 innings, meaning that Texas should have the edge on the mound all contest long.

Matt Boyd will get the start for the Tigers. Boyd is no doubt an up and comer who has some good stuff in his arsenal, but he is still developing his craft in the big league. He has had some impressive performances at home in Detroit, however he hasn't had much success on the highway this season going 0-2 with an extremely unflattering 10.00 ERA. Now facing a motivated Rangers team in Arlington, the rookie may just be a bit out of his depth in this contest.

The Detroit rotation also isn’t as explosive as they were at one point in the season. We believe Miguel Cabrera might get the day off now that he's registered enough at-bats to qualify for another 'batting title’ and Victor Martinez is also dealing with sore hamstring while Nick Castellanos got hurt last night.  Ausmus' team could be playing with another makeshift lineup tonight and given that they made 4 fielder errors last night doesn’t bode well against a squad that puts a lot of men on base.

Gallardo has already proven that he can shut down this Tiger's lineup and we expect him to do it once again in front of the home crowd. The Tigers simply don't appear to have anything left in the tank and more than likely are looking to put this season behind them and forget that it ever happened. Given the numerous advantage that the Rangers should have in this contest, including their victory last night over the Tigers, they should come into this one looking to keep their momentum going and arguably put the proverbial dagger into Detroit.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Tigers are just 3-9 in their last 12 series finales.
  • Rangers have won 4 of their last 5 home games vs. left-handed starters.
  • Tigers are 0-4 in Boyd's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record!
  • Rangers are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. teams with losing road records.



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