September 28, 2015 (Updated at 4:00 PM ET)
There is one MLB and one NFL pick tonight.
There is a reason Sports Profit System is 100% transparent and honest with results (win or lose) and most other handicappers are NOT. That's because over the course of a season, no service profits more!
Right before going 3-0 on the opening Sunday of the NFL season, we emphasized patience and reminded everyone that success in sports-betting is a marathon and not a race. There are 17 weeks in the regular season and even the very best endure one terrible Sunday. It didn't stop us from topping all charts last season and won't hold us back this year either. We fully expect to finish the season with the highest winning percentage and don't get high or low with temporary streaks. True success is defined by long-term results and SPS is not only having another excellent month (September) but we're 44-32 over the last 45 days and are enjoying another extremely profitable year!
1) Take Pittsburgh Pirates on the Money Line (-136) against St. Louis Cardinals risking 4.08% to win 3%.
(Happ and Lynn must both start for wager to have action)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have the 2nd best record in not just NL but all of Major League Baseball and yet all they ever hear about is people talking about division rivals Cardinals since they are #1 Andrew McCutchen and company have admitted that if they were in another division, they would be getting way more credit than they currently do since they would be easily topping any other division in baseball. After chasing St. Louis all season long, this is about as close to them as they have gotten. Now just 3 games back, they have a chance to potentially overtake them. These are the type of games that count most, when you win against direct rival, each win would pull you a full game back and we believe they'll make the remaining 6 days of the regular season real interesting by winning this opener.
This is a crucial game for the Pirates and they will no doubt have the advantage playing in front of their home fans. They have twice as many wins (50) as losses (25) at this venue! They also raise their game in these important clashes as they are 27-14 against teams with winning records in the second half of the season! Cardinals have the best record in baseball specifically because of their dominance at home, but against lefties and on the road, they have been mediocre at best. After last night’s loss it will surely have taken away some of their confidence and shifted momentum to Bucs in this contest.
This is also arguably Pittsburgh best matchup of the series since the Cards have struggled against left handed pitching this season. Mike Matheny's club is also still without its captain and heart and soul of this team, Yadier Molina. Instead it will be Tony Cruz will be starting behind home plate tonight.
JA Happ is 6-1 with a 1.73 ERA in his last 7 starts! So the veteran will be coming into this contest confident as well. It was just earlier this month that Happ pitched 7 shutout innings in St. Louis! Lance Lynn on the other hand couldn't get out of the first inning in his last appearance against these Pirate bats and could be in for another rough outing tonight. Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Neil Walker and Mercer all have major success against Lance Lynn in the past! The Bucs should also have the edge in relief pitching as well as Mark Melancon will be more confident heading into what could be a tight game than Trevor Rosenthal who was the main culprit behind last night's shocking loss.
Finally, no club has won more close games than Pirates this season! They are 36-17 in games decided by 1 run this season! Showing they have winning mentality and can close games out. Pittsburgh had won 8 straight prior to last night’s loss and no doubt will be motivated to get back into the win column tonight. In what should be a closely contested game, we believe the value lies with the Pirates in this contest as they pull out the win.
2) Take Green Bay Packers at -5.5 spread against Kansas City Chiefs for 3% of the bankroll.
There is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers is arguably one of the best signal callers in the game today, especially at home. Rodgers currently holds the record for most pass attempts at home (including the playoffs) without an interception which stands at 545 attempts. His regular season streak is currently at 451 which include 38 touchdown passes. To show just how impressive that record is, the next closest active streak in the league belongs to Charlie Whitehurst at just 169 attempts! The last time Aaron Rodgers threw an interception at home, Jeff Saturday snapped the ball. Saturday retired just over 30 months ago! Simply put, at home, Rodgers plays nearly perfect football. In his last start at Lambeau, he managed to go 25 of 33 passing for 249 yards, two touchdowns and zero interception against what many consider to be the league’s best defense in the Seattle Seahawks.
The KC Chiefs are coming off what can only be considered as a monumental meltdown last Thursday Night at home against the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs were up by 7 with under 2 mins to play and seemingly had the victory in hand. Their defense allowed Peyton Manning to march down the field in under a minute and score what was the game tying touchdown. Their offense then took the field and a Jamaal Charles fumble return for a touchdown with under a minute remaining sealed the game. It was an improbable and devastating loss for the Chiefs and is certainly one of those games that can stick with a player, coach and team. The KC offense had 5 turnovers in their game against Denver and we wouldn't be surprised if they were a bit gun shy or hesitant on the offensive end this game, not wanting to make similar mistake. Let's not forget that the Chiefs offense is also somewhat limited. They have gone 21 games without throwing a TD pass to a wide receiver and are ore content to move the ball down the field with a focus on Jamaal Charles and the ground game. Against a high powered Packers offense, the Chiefs may have an issue keeping up on the scoreboard.
It's not too often that you see a team such as the Packers as a home favorite of less than a touchdown and when they are, there is certainly always value there. This line has moved, likely due to current injuries surrounding a couple of key players on this Packers team, but still should not affect the overall outcome with Rodgers still under center. Packers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games at home when favorites of -6.5 or -7 (which is where this line opened). Also undefeated home favorites on Monday Night Football are an impressive 10-3-1 ATS in this situation. The value is with Green Bay in this contest.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Packers are 11-2 ATS when seeking revenge against AFC opponents!
- Undefeated MFN home favorites are 20-4 ATS against non-division opponents since 1990!
- Chiefs are 1-6 ATS on Monday Night Football after losing their previous game when listed as the favorite.
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