September 27, 2015 (Posted at 11:00 AM ET)
The 'Under' pick was released last night.
Sports Profit System has won 24 of its last 37 picks and is aiming to celebrate its 3rd profitable NFL Sunday of the season!
Much like baseball picks, the wager on Baltimore is a rare Money Line selection.
1) Take the UNDER 44 total points in Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys for 3% of the bankroll.
The Cowboys have certainly been bitten by the injury bug as of late. Dez Bryant is out, Tony Romo is out and Jason Witten is seriously banged up. That leaves the offense in the hands of Brandon Weeden, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and a mixed bag of running backs in the backfield. That being said, what Dallas lacks is serious explosive capability, they make up for with an All-Pro offensive line. The O-line of Dallas is arguable it's biggest strength and (given what we have seen thus far this season) is the reason why Demarco Murray had such a breakout season last year. The Cowboys game plan will be simple in this game; Run the football. Running the ball will limit the mistakes that Weeden could potentially make trying to force things downfield and it will keep the chains moving and take precious time off the clock, two things that are paramount to keep a game low scoring.
On the defensive side of the ball, the 'Boys have actually been pretty stout. They held both the Philadelphia running and passing game in check for pretty much all 4 quarters last week. Their front 7 spent a majority of the game getting pressure on Sam Bradford and making him uncomfortable in the pocket. Against a questionable O-line like Atlanta's, the Dallas front 7 should be able to make Matt Ryan uncomfortable and force him into so questionable decisions. The Dallas secondary has also been great at being able to limit the explosive downfield plays, which should limit the potentially damage done by Julio Jones in this contest. There is no doubt Jason Garrett will have spent the week trying to game plan how to take Jones out of the equation. While there is no way to fully disable a player like Jones, after seeing what he has done in the first two weeks of play, Garrett would be wise to game plan against him as he can single handedly alter the outcome of a game.
With all of the focus on the Cowboys and how they will defend, let's not forget that the Atlanta defense is also much improved this season. There has been a renewed focus on the defensive front under new head coach Dan Quinn. Quinn is the former defensive coordinator for the former Superbowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has one of the most feared defenses in the league and Quinn was a big part of it. It will take some time to implement his philosophies on a defense such as the Falcons, but we can already see a much needed improvement over a season ago. With a lack of playmakers on offense for the Cowboys, the Atlanta defense should be able to do enough to disrupt Weeden and company.
While not quite as lame on the offensive end as Dallas is, the Falcons are somewhat limited in their ground attack as speedy rookie; Tevin Coleman has been ruled out with a rib injury. That leaves Devontae Freeman to handle a majority of the snaps. Against such a stout secondary, the Falcons will likely use the run to try and set up the pass, but they will likely mostly be those dink and dunk 5 yards down the field. We don't expect to see either team passing for 30 or 40 yard gains at a time. Both teams will likely need to be methodical in marching the ball up the field and more than likely their drives will result in either punts or field goals. We don't expect to see too many offensive TDs. As long as there are not an excessive amount of defensive or special teams’ touchdowns in this contest, this total should stay Under.
2) Take Jacksonville Jaguars at +14 spread against New England Patriots for 3% of the bankroll.
First and foremost, we are not saying that the Jacksonville Jaguars are "live dogs" in this situation or have a good chance of winning. There is no doubt that they are outclassed when facing the defending Superbowl Champions. However, that is the common perception that we believe has created the inflated spread and hence value here.
Looking at these two teams on paper, few would argue that the Patriots are the better overall team. They have the better QB, the better receivers, the better coach and the best TE in the game. They are simply on another level than their opponents, however the Jaguars do have some other stuff going for them and one of those is the fact that they are easily overlooked. The Patriots are not in a good spot in this game. They are coming off a huge win over hyped up division rivals, the Buffalo Bills! They had a lot to prove in that game and did so emphatically. Now they are facing a team that is looked at by many as arguably the weakest and that means the players are in a let-down spot and could be caught giving less than 100%. They also have a bye week after this contest so Jacksonville may actually catch a break and find the Patriots just a little bit disinterested in this non-division matchup.
New England has a history of getting complacent with huge leads. There is not much doubt that the Patriots will come out and try to score early and often and put this game away by half time and they may achieve that. The issue for their backers who are laying this many points is then just how much does this team take its foot off the gas? We don't believe they will play 4 full quarters and try to completely embarrass the Jaguars. Blake Bortles and company will have their opportunity to put points on the board against a defense that is mediocre at best and if not throughout the game, then at least in "garbage time" which should make the final score closer than most people expect. Let's not forget, New England held a 37-13 lead in the 4th quarter against the Bills before they allowed Buffalo to rally and make it a one-possession game. The same could happen this afternoon against Gus Bradley's squad.
It's difficult for any team to cover a double digit spread in the NFL. Blowouts do happen but not as often as the betting public expects and rarely in games that aren't 'revenge' ones and where bettors "need it" (big spreads) to happen. A play on the Patriots seems like an "obvious" choice and there is no doubt a majority of the betting public agrees, however this is a bet that gets the majority burned more often than not. At the end of the game, the most important thing is not which team is "better" but which one covers the spread and in this contest, Jacksonville will find a way to stay within the generous number.
3) Take Baltimore Ravens on the Money Line (-115) against Cincinnati Bengals risking 3.45% to win 3%.
This play has a very simple reasoning behind it. We don't believe that the Baltimore Ravens will fall to 0-3 to start the season, especially with this being a home game against a division rival that would improve to 3-0! The Ravens are the one team in the league that has NEVER started an NFL season 0-3 and we don't believe they will make history today.
We have always preached that fact that we believe in value. In this particular instance the value lies with the team that we believe will win this game. The spread on this game is different in numerous places at the moment. Some have it listed as PK, while other have it at Ravens -1.5. To avoid any type of confusion and to also take away the ability to "Push", we believe the value in this game is on the Ravens moneyline.
John Harbaugh is a severely underrated coach and always seems to do what is necessary to win the game. Much like Ron Rivera, he is a conservative coach that only cares about winning and does so in narrow fashion. He relies on kicker Justin Tucker to hit late game winning field goals and it's worth mentioning that Tucker is one of the best and most consistent in NFL. Then Bengals managed to defeat the Raven twice last season and have won 3 straight dating back to the 2013 season so there is no doubt Baltimore will be out for revenge in this contest and look to balance out the series meetings.
Baltimore has had a tough schedule to start the season, playing their first two games on the road. Now finally back home for their home opener we expect to see a spirited effort from all of the Ravens players in this game. The Bengals have thrived on turnovers this season having forced 5 in their first 2 games which has helped them to an 0-2 start. Turnovers have really hurt the Ravens in recent meetings with the Bengals but if they can play a cleaner game this afternoon and we believe they will with their backs against the wall, they will secure that much needed victory to keep their hopes alive.
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