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September 23, 2015 (Posted at 2:00 PM ET)

Sports Profit System ranks #1 among verified MLB handicappers worldwide thanks to an excellent 79-57 seasonal record! What makes that even more impressive is that such results have been achieved by largely backing short favorites and underdogs. Having said that, there are exceptions to every rule and while the value often lies with the underdog, we do NOT believe that is the case in Wednesday's crucial AL East showdown! After cashing out with two more dogs yesterday, SPS has a rare selection on a heavier favorite tonight.

Our clients are the most loyal in the world and their faith in us has been greatly rewarded once again!
 

Take Toronto Blue Jays (-181) on the Money Line against NY Yankees risking 5.43% of bankroll to win 3%.
(Stroman and Nova must start for wager to have action)

We had solid reasonings to predict that the New York Yankees would defeat the Toronto Blue Jays last night and we were correct, however in this particular matchup we believe it's the Jays that have the decisive advantage. 

Ivan Nova is not having the best of seasons and has struggled mightily against the blue birds. He's given up at least three runs in seven straight starts while going 2-5 with an unflattering 7.46 ERA. Three of those seven starts happen to have come against the Blue Jays. In his last 7 starts against Toronto, Nova is just 2-3 with a struggling 7.59 ERA! He's allowing the Toronto lineup to hit a combined .323 average. Jose Bautista has also single handedly beat up Nova as well as he owns a .538 on-base percentage in 19 at-bats against Nova. There is no question that the Jays lineup is extremely dangerous. There is no safe spot for pitcher’s to pitch around certain players so if Nova struggles and walks one Blue Jay, he has another power hitter behind him to potentially cause more damage at the plate. This is not the ideal situation for pitcher who was demoted to bullpen duty for his struggles just a few short weeks ago.

Marcus Stroman will take the mound for the Blue Jays tonight. The 24-year-old comes in with a 2-0 record to go along with a respectable 3.00 ERA on the season. He is coming off an impressive outing in his last starts going seven innings of one-run ball against a dangerous and red hot Boston Red Sox lineup. In that game, he retired 11 batters on ground ball outs (no fly ball outs) and threw 69 of his 96 pitches for strikes. Unlike his counterpart, Stroman has actually had success against his opponents as he has held NY to a .169 batting average! Toronto has beaten NY in 12 of 18 matchups this season and should clinch another series tonight.

The Blue Jays certainly don't want to let the Yankees back in division race and a win tonight should take care of creating some extra distance in the standings. They in fact have their eyes on the top spot in American League and secretly are staring down the KC Royals who have been struggling recently. New York had to use Andrew Miller and Betances extensively last night which will put their bullpen at a disadvantage tonight.

The Jays have tomorrow off which means this game is their sole focus and they will want to give it their all in front of nearly 50,000 passionate fans. John Gibbons likely won't hold anything back in this contest. The Yankees on the other hand return home tomorrow night to face the White Sox and some of the players must surely be looking forward to returning to New York. Toronto is not only the better team but they have numerous advantages in this game. It’s also worth mentioning that the home side has won 25 of 30 games that Jim Reynolds has been the HP umpire this season and the favorites have won 9 straight games that he's called strikes and balls so that is yet another advantage that Toronto will have in this contest. While they are a substantially bigger favorite than what we have been accustomed to playing, there is decent value in them at -181 because we believe they should be -200 favorites in this particular spot. Last night was the Yankees' night but this rubber match should belong to the Jays.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Blue Jays are 6-1 in Stroman's last 7 home starts.
  • Yankees have won just 4 of Nova's last 13 starts vs. American League East clubs.
  • Blue Jays have won 7 of 8 when installed as -175 to -200 home favorites!
  • Blue Jays are 23-8 against teams with winning records in the 2nd half of the season!



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