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September 19, 2015 (Posted at 11:00 AM ET)

Sports Profit System has won 21 of its last 30 MLB picks including last night's underdog!

Saturday and Sunday are all about football. A total of 4 college picks were wisely released yesterday to get key numbers.

1) Take Texas at +7 spread against California for 3% of the bankroll.

This is a classic example of how recent perception severely skews the betting public's thought process. Just two weeks into the season and the California Golden Bears have gone from seemingly unknowns, to world-class beaters given a couple of impressive offensive performances. There is no question that Cal has an impressive offense. They have ranked in the Top 10 nationally in passing yards per game the last 2 years and last season finished ranked 11th in scoring offense, averaging 38.3 points per game. While all that is true, it has been their defense has certainly left some things to be desired. Only one team in the Power Five conference allowed more points on defense than Cal did a season ago. They were ranked dead last in the country in defending the pass and it wasn't even a close race. Cal allowed 367 yards through the air per game on average while the next closest team, Washington State, allowed an average of 300. With 9 returning starters on defense, we are not sure that is exactly a good thing for this team, especially considering they have yet to be tested.

Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns Week 1 embarrassment at the hands of Notre Dame has given them the overall impression of being a less than capable program. Charlie Strong is a great coach and took over the Texas job in order to bring the program back to prominence, but that will no doubt take some time. Expectations were high in Texas for this season and that one poor performance was not a make or break game for the Longhorns. They did appear to perform much better in Week 2 and are finally finding some stability in their skilled positions. It will take some more time for chemistry to gel, but we expect this team to get better each and every game.

In the offseason many sportsbooks originally released the line on this particular matchup at Texas -9.5! Yes, Texas were the favorites by more than a touchdown, which shows what the perception of these two teams were in the offseason. Now, just two weeks into the season and seeing how these two teams performed, the original line opened with Cal as 3 point favorites and within 30 mins of opening the betting public has pushed it all the way up to a full touchdown, which shows the value is clearly on the home team in this one. Again, public perception is severely skewed in this contest.  

Texas is in almost a dire situation, their stock is arguably at an all-time low and many are expected Cal to come into Texas and completely roll through the Longhorns. We don't necessarily believe that will be the case. Texas has a lot to play for in this contest and even though the Golden Bears have been impressive to start the season, they have not been at all tested having played the like of San Diego and Grambling State, but they will be tested in this contest. California has had plenty of struggles on the road, especially when listed as the favorites. In fact, Cal's opponents when catching 8 or less points at home are a money building 24-6-1 ATS. Plenty of points will be scored in this one, but we like the Longhorns to pull off the outright upset, however even if they fall short, this game will be a lot closer than many expect.

2) Take Miami at -3 spread against Nebraska for 3% of the bankroll.

These teams last met on September 20, 2014 when Nebraska came away with a 41-31victory in Lincoln; this are much different this season however. We have started to see what life is like for Nebraska in the new Mike Riley era and so far, things haven't exactly gone as plan. The Huskers managed to come away with a much needed win in Week 2 and it's likely that this team needs all the confidence they could get following their heartbreaking loss on the opening week of the season to BYU. The Cornhuskers saw BYU catch a ball at the goal line and reach it over as time expired and it seems that that game could haunt the Huskers all season long. The main problem that Nebraska has shown so far this season has been in their secondary. The Cornhuskers have been very vulnerable to the deep pass as they’ve allowed 8 passes of 20 yards or more and currently ranks 120th in pass defense.

Miami will no doubt be looking for revenge in this contest and give the Cornhuskers a bit of payback from last season's loss in Lincoln. While injuries have certainly somewhat hampered the Hurricanes already this season they will get a boost on the offensive side of the ball as they will welcome back WRs Stacy Coley and Braxton Berrios. These two are dynamic and explosive receivers which should be able to cause frustration for an already limited Nebraska secondary. There is no doubt the Huskers run defense will also be tested as Miami RB Joseph Yearby has been extremely impressive thus far. The talented RB managed to rush for 243 yards in their last contest against Florida Atlantic.

This will be Nebraska's first road game of the season under a new head coach so it will be interesting to see how they perform. However we know that Hurricane's Al Golden is completely familiar with this situation and his environment as he is a perfect 11-0 ATS as a home chalk of 8 or less points. Dolphin Stadium is a tough place for any visiting team to play and with this game being played early in the season the temperatures will be hot in South Beach and it will likely take its toll on the big boys from up north late in the game. We like Miami to get their revenge in this contest and with this being such a small number they should cover the spread in the process.

Two notable facts to consider:

  • Miami has covered 4 of its last 5 September games.
  • Miami is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a win by more than 20 points!

3) Take Bowling Green at +3 spread against Memphis for 3% of the bankroll.

If you like points, this should be one of the more entertaining games for fans this week. Both the Memphis Tigers and Bowling Green Falcons know how to light up a scoreboard, however its Bowling Green that we believe holds the edge in this contest. The Falcons are coming off an extremely impressive upset on the road over the Big 10's Maryland Terrapins. Down 13-6 at half time, Bowling Green managed to outscore the Maryland by a 42-14 margin, which included racking up 28 points in the 4th quarter while also outgaining them by an impressive 692-341 margin. For a team to do that on the road, against a Bowl team last season surely speaks volumes of their offense. This is also not the first offensive explosion that this team has shown this season as in Week 1 they traveled to Knoxville and put up 30 points against an SEC caliber defense. 

The fact that this will be Bowling Green's home opener of the season should be the difference maker in this contest. After watching their team come away with such a huge victory last week, there is no doubt that their fans will be welcoming them back home with open arms and be ready to show their support against a Memphis team that is expected to contend for an AAC title this season. The fact that Bowling Green has managed to win 13 of their last 14 home openers should speak volumes as to how this team prepares for their first home game of the season. They are also 5-1 both straight up and ATS as home underdogs in non-conference games.

Memphis will surely provide a stern test for the Falcons, but we believe they will be prepared. We look for the Falcons to come away with the outright victory in this contest; however this is a game that could come down to the final possession. Getting an extremely proficient offense, at home and catching points is simply too good to pass up in this situation.  

4) Take Air Force at +25 spread against Michigan State for 3% of the bankroll.

While the Spartans have a potential Heisman candidate in QB Connor Cook and an extremely stout defensive front 7, there is no doubt that they are the better team here on paper, they are coming off an incredibly huge victory in a revenge game over the Oregon Ducks in their last contest. After such an impressive and emotional win, this leaves the Spartans in an incredibly dangerous letdown spot in this contest against a very dangerous team.

The Air Force Falcons are a team that runs the vaunted triple-option. It is a spread attack that spread out a defense and forces them to play incredibly disciplined defense with a focus on individual assignments. We saw how potent this type of attack was last week with our play on Georgia Southern as they continuously piled up the yards on the ground against Western Michigan. This is an extremely difficult type of offense to prepare for and with the Spartans coming off their emotional win over the Ducks and only a week to prepare, we are not sure that is enough. The Big 10 does not have any schools that run this type of attack so they also don't have much experience trying to prep for it. While Mark Dantonio's defense is always prepared, it only takes one blown assignment for a runner to make a break for the endzone.

This type of "run-first" offense tends to slow the pace of the game down which limits the number of possessions each team gets. While Michigan State will no doubt be able to score points against a much smaller and more inexperienced defense, we also believe that it will be difficult for them to score them with the type of consistency needed to cover this huge number. The question also has to be asked, how much does Michigan State really want to win this game by? Air Force is a military based school with military members as their players. We find it hard to believe that Mark D'Antonio would be looking to completely embarrass them and leave his foot on the gas for all four quarters. There is still a manner of respectability when it comes to our military and that is evident by the fact that these military schools are 72-36-4 ATS when catching more than 20 points! Air Force is also 5-0 ATS as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points dating all the way back to 1992! Once Michigan State calls off the dogs and players start to get more laxed on defense, that is when we believe the Falcons find a way to stay within this number.

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