September 10, 2015 (Posted at 2:00 PM ET)
The NFL season kicks off tonight and Sports Profit System could not be more excited! Long-term clients know that we come out on top year after year and hit an outstanding 58% to top handicapping charts last season! Despite our incredible success on the bases and on the hardwood, it is football that has historically been our most profitable sport.
It is a long season and there will be both ups and downs. However, much like Super Bowl champions, we win a lot more than lose and have PROVEN results for those that remain patient and disciplined. We'll finish #1 among verified and transparent handicappers!
There is one NFL pick tonight and 3 college football plays that are being released early for Saturday.
Take New England Patriots at -7 spread against Pittsburgh Steelers risking 3% of the bankroll.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have the unenviable task of opening up the 2015-16 season against the defending champions, the New England Patriots. During the offseason there has been too much media attention focused around Tom Brady and the entire "Deflategate" saga and now that that is all over, the entire franchise has its focus back on the field and is determined to make a statement! Brady is not one who takes having his integrity challenged lightly. Does anyone remember what happened during the 2007 season when the Patriots were involved in the whole "Spygate" fiasco? Brady came out and set the single season touchdown record and led his team to an undefeated regular season. It was the best that Brady had looked in his illustrious career. The "Deflategate" scandal will only serve as motivation for one who is already considered one of the best quarterbacks ever and that doesn't bode well for Pittsburgh in this contest.
Besides Brady being completely focused and motivated on leading his team out tonight, there is no doubt that the playmakers around him will be looking to assist their QB and get off to a good start. The New England passing game is littered with talented receivers and for a Pittsburgh defense that is currently learning to live life without longtime defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau on the sidelines, it could spell disaster. Since 2003, LeBeau was the man in charge and the one that made the Pittsburgh defense so intimidating for many years. He will be an incredibly difficult coach to replace! It'll take this unit time to adapt to their new schemes and that should see them suffer in the early part of the season. As if having a new DC is not challenging enough, veteran defensive leaders like Troy Polamalu and Ike Davis are no longer with the team. With a bunch of younger talent on defense and in the secondary, playing in the season opener in a hostile environment, we expect there to be some confusion and miscommunication on the Pittsburgh D which should allow Brady to pick them apart.
Besides the defense, the Steelers will be without numerous playmakers on the offensive end of the ball as both dynamic running back Le'Veon Bell and impressive wideout Martavius Bryant are currently suspended which limits the options of QB Ben Roethlisberger. It's also worth noting that the Steelers have been historically slow starters over the last few seasons especially in the role of underdogs and in September (1-7 record L3 years) has often been coach Mike Tomlin's worst month! Meanwhile, Belichick's record in season openers and in Foxboro speaks for itself. Belichick has been known to have his team prepared and likes to get off to fast starts to begin the season. He will no doubt have this team pumped up and raring to go!
This is a rather large number to lay in in the first game of the season but with all of the frustrations that the Patriots have experienced in the offseason, we expect them to come out fired up and take it out on the depleted Steelers in an effort that should see them cover the spread.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Tomlin's 3 losses to Belichick have all come by double digits!
- Pittsburgh has covered only 2 of its last 8 road openers.
- Super Bowl Champions playing at home on a Thursday night are 9-2-2 ATS over the last 13 games.
- New England is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when the total is set at 49.5 points or higher over the last 3 seasons!
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