September 9, 2015 (Posted at 2:00 PM ET)
Sports Profit System has won 15 of its last 22 baseball selections!
There are 3 MLB picks tonight.
1: Take Boston Red Sox as +113 underdogs on the Money Line against Blue Jays risking 3% to win 3.39%.
(Kelly and Hutchison must start for wager to have action)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will conclude their three-game series at Fenway Park tonight with the series tied at a game apiece. The Red Sox opened the series with an impressive 11-4 victory while Toronto managed to come away with a 5-1 victory last night in a game that went to extra innings. The Red Sox will likely have the edge on the mound tonight as they hand the ball off to Joe Kelly while Toronto will counter with Drew Hutchison.
In our opinion Hutchison is nowhere near as good a pitcher as his 13-3 overall record indicates and that is evident by his less than impressive 5.07 ERA. He has been fortunate this season to be backed by an explosive offense that has been able to mask some of the critical mistakes that he has made on the mound. That has not been more evident than in his starts against the Red Sox this season as the Jays have managed to win each of Hutchison's 3 starts against Boston this season despite the left hander compiling an almost laughable 11.91 ERA. Hutchison has also struggle on the road this season as well as he has a 9.00 ERA in 11 starts on the road. We knew it would only be a matter of time before things started to fall apart for the southpaw and they did in his last trip to the mound when he gave up 6 runs and nine hits (3HRs) in five innings in a loss to the Baltimore Orioles.
It was only a matter of time before Hutchison was forced to pay for his mistakes and he could be in line for another lesson tonight as the Red Sox have hit him hard. Mookie Betts and Pablo Sandoval each are 5 for 7 with a homer and two doubles off him in 2015, while David Ortiz (4 for 7) and Xander Bogaerts (3 of 6) also have had success in their matchups.
For the Red Sox, they will counter will Joe Kelly who could be considered the exact opposite of Hutchison. After starting the season off rather poorly, Kelly has pitched extremely well and much better than his 9-6 record and 4.84 ERA indicates. The right-hander has won each of his last seven starts while compiling a respectable 2.72 ERA during that span and has completed six innings or more, while allowing two earned runs or less in each of his last five starts.
The Red Sox have been playing inspired baseball since the trade deadline and get a boost on both the offensive and defensive side as second basemen Dustin Pedroia returns to the lineup. Hutchison has been pitching on borrowed time this season and with the Sox offense seeing the ball well at the moment they should have no problem putting runs up on the board tonight. Kelly has been pitching well and should do enough to keep the potent Jays offense in check and get his team the win. There is great value in backing the Sox as underdogs tonight as the Blue Jays will have one eye on their crucial series against the Yankees which starts tomorrow!
2: Take Miami Marlins on the Money Line (-112) against Milwaukee Brewers risking 3.36% to win 3%.
(Koehler and Pena must start for wager to have action)
The Milwaukee Brewers have seemingly owned the Miami Marlins in recent meetings, however this is a particular matchup that we believe gives the Marlins the advantage and a chance to turn around their recent struggles against the Brewers. After coming away with a 6-4 victory last night, we expect the Marlins to build on that momentum as they attempt to close out the series. Miami has a scheduled day off tomorrow which means that they can put forth an all-out effort in tonight’s contest while Brewers will not only have to travel but will have to travel to PNC Park in what should be an extremely tough series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Milwaukee may find themselves overlooking this matchup with a team they have had success with in the past and instead be focusing their attention on their game tomorrow with the Pirates.
We also believe that Milwaukee will likely be at a disadvantage on the mound tonight as Ariel Pena will be making his first major league start tonight. Mostly known as a relief pitcher, Pena got his first win as a reliever after a rain delay shortened Wily Peralta's last start. He managed to go three innings but did give up 2 earned runs in the process. It's always a dangerous transition when we see a relief pitcher attempt to move into the starting role. Relief pitchers are mentally trained to simply produce "Outs" by any means necessary. That means throwing the ball hard and over the plate for strikes. While that strategy works in the short term, starting pitchers use more finesse where they use the count to their advantage and try to wear the batter out with pitch selection to keep him guessing. While Pena could have success in the first few innings of the contest, we believe he will likely struggle and fade the deeper he goes into the game.
The Marlins will counter with Tom Koehler who we feel is a much better pitcher than his metrics dictates. He has been unfortunate in some of his outings this season but has pitched well at home this season where he has a respectable 3.19 ERA. The Marlins have been playing extremely well recently winning 6 of their last 8 games and have done some behind some solid fundamentals. They are hitting the ball well, fielding the ball well and not committing errors. That is the key to winning baseball games in this league. They also have multiple players like Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich who a threat to swipe bags when they get on base. Against a rookie pitcher tonight, the Marlins should have no problem keeping their streak of playing quality games going and coming away with a closely contested win. These are great odds to back the home team who are playing exceptionally well at the moment.
3: Take LA Angels on the Money Line (-143) against LA Dodgers risking 4.29% to win 3%.
(Richards and Latos must start for wager to have action)
It is the 3rd and final game of the Freeway Series between the two Los Angeles clubs. After facing two of the very best pitchers in the Majors in Greinke and Kershaw, the Halos will find it easier against former Red, Mats Latos tonight! This Interleague matchup means more to Mike Scioscia's side at this point than it does to Don Mattingly's squad who have won 5 straight and are in a very comfortable position in the NL West. Their recent hot streak has coincided with their nearest rivals, Giants going cold and that has given them a massive 8.5 games lead atop the division! The Angels on the other hand have their work cut out of them if they want to make the post-season as they are 4.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot.
There's no doubt that future hall of famer Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and company want to play October baseball. It would be a very disappointing season if they didn't and we believe they will make a run between now and the end of the regular season. This is a prime spot for them to bounce back and start a winning streak. That's because their pride is at stake as they are in danger of being swept by their SoCal rivals! Not only that, a defeat here would give them a losing record for the season and see them drop below .500! This is a talented squad that is determined to fight till the end and has a lot more to gain or lose from this game than their opponents, the Dodgers. We expect that urgency and desire to be the difference tonight.
Garrett Richards has established himself as the Anaheim club's #1 starter in the eyes of many and will relish the opportunity to end the Dodgers' 5-game winning streak. He's got a great arm and is not a pitcher that the Dodgers have faced too many times before. Mats Latos will be on the mound for the other side and he's had a season to forget! He's 4-9 with an inflated 4.92 ERA and will be facing some very good hitters who happen to be extra motivated tonight. Guys like Shane Victorino and David De Jesus have had great success against him the past and are capable of repeating that if given the chance.
We expect the Angels to get some manner of revenge by avoiding an embarrassing sweep at the hands of their LA rivals, while boosting their playoff hopes by grabbing a much needed victory. Time is running out for them to make up ground and they realize that. Let's not forget that that this is a ball club that is used to winning in September, in the final month of the regular season when it matters most. The Dodgers on the other hand are in a letdown spot tonight as they are already pleased with what they have accomplished and will be satisfied, win or lose.
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