September 2, 2015 (Posted at 2:00 PM ET)
Please check the Members Area at noon (12:00 PM ET) tomorrow for Thursday's selections.
One college football pick for Thursday was wisely released yesterday since the line was favorable but unlikely to stay there.
There are two MLB picks tonight! Scroll down to view them.
#1: Take Minnesota Twins on the Money Line (-112) against Chicago White Sox risking 3.36% of the bankroll to win 3%.
(Milone and Rodon must start for wager to have action)
The odds suggest this should be a close game that can go either way but we disagree. The home side has numerous advantages in this contest and should pull away to grab another much needed W in what is a very tight AL Wild Card race. The Twins held a 4-0 lead against White Sox ace, Chris Sale yesterday but blew that before rallying late to win the game. The way the series opener unfolded will put Paul Moritor's side on alert and makes them less complacent because they now know that no lead is safe enough and they can't take their foot off the gas pedal, having nearly lost last night! It also empowers them however in the sense that they mentally know they are capable of mounting comebacks and that they're never out of the game. Many intangibles are in their favor tonight and will be showecased.
Carlos Rodon is a talented rookie who has found some confidence after some quality recent outings but the lefty has years of development ahead of him before he can match Chris Sale. And yet this powerful Minnesota lineup had no problem getting to Sale nice and early yesterday and we believe will pose problems for the young hurler as well. Rodon has struggled with his command and issued frequent walks at times this season and while he has improved recently, we believe there will be a regression tonight especially since he's never started a game at Target Field before! This venue is a hitter-friendly ball park and one that can particularly cause problems for lefties when facing powerful right-handed bats. The Twins have quite a few guys that are able to 'go yard' and should trouble Rodon tonight.
Former Athletic, Tommy Milone will get the start for the Twins and has had great success against Chicago in his career. He's 3-0 against the White Sox with an ERA of just 1.64 and a WHIP of under 1! To say he's baffled this Southsiders lineup before would be accurate. That's because he's held them to a lowly .219 batting average with just 7 extra-base hits (two homers) in 105 previous at-bats! He was poor in his last outing against Tampa but he was working his way back from a stint on DL and should be sharper for it tonight. Let's not forget that Ventura's offense has been extremely poor against left-handed starters all season scoring just 3.2 runs on average! In Milone, they will face another crafty southpaw and one that has given them fits in the past.
Minnesota is in a tight race for a Wild Card spot with a handful of other teams and can't afford to drop home games like this. Even after last night's comeback victory, they are not occupying a playoff position and therefore have no margin for error. And yet on the same token, they do currently sit just a single game back of the Texas Rangers which fills them with motivation and belief that they can get head to the post-season! They need to pile up the wins and that is exactly what they have been doing recently winning 8 of their last 10! They can ill afford to lose a game like this to the lowly White Sox and they know that. Robin Ventura's side is basically out of the running and has been extremely poor in September games over the last few years.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Twins are 41-25 at home this season!
- White Sox are 43-87 on the road after a loss over the last 3 seasons!
- Twins are 10-4 against the White Sox this season.
- Tom Milone is 12-2 in September games in his career.
#2: Take Houston Astros on the Money Line (-169) against Seattle Mariners risking 5.07% of the bankroll to win 3%.
(Kazmir and Walker must start for wager to have action)
There is no doubt that Scott Kazmir was ecstatic when he got the news that he was being traded from the bottom dwelling Oakland A's to a playoff contender in the Houston Astros. He started his transition with his new team off nicely with two solid starts, however since then it seems that Kaz has struggled, losing 4 of his last 5 trips to the mound. He may only have a 2-4 record but Kaz has pitched well in those outings sporting a 2.64 ERA in his past seven starts. He has been unfortunate to not receive the necessary run support from his team to pick up the win but we don't believe that should negatively reflect how he has fared on the mound. Expectations and perception are unjustly low on Kazmir at the moment where as we believe the opposite is true for his counterpart.
Taijuan Walker has been a bright spot in an otherwise underwhelming season for the Seattle Mariners. Seattle has managed to win 12 of the youngster’s last 15 starts and while that may certainly be impressive, we don't believe it has all been on the arm of Walker as he has been rather fortunate as well. He may be 10-7 on the season; however he does have a 4.53 ERA, which shows that he has shown a propensity for giving up runs. Fortunately for him, his mistakes on the mound have been somewhat masked and forgiven by the fact that his team's offense have often times bailed him out. Even against the Astros, Walker has what appears to be an impressive 4-1 lifetime against the 'Stros but has an unflattering 4.46 ERA in 7 career appearances. Again, he has been somewhat fortunate in his results, despite pitching rather poorly.
Seattle managed to come away with a 7-5 win last night at Minute Maid Park and we don't believe that is going to sit well with the Astros tonight. Coming off a loss, the Houston players will be looking to atone for their performance and not allow a struggling division team like the Mariners to embarrass them and steal a series on their home field. Seattle is not a team that has been able to keep / build any kind of momentum this season. Even after a victory, Seattle has shown their ability to come out flat in the follow contest and allow teams to get their revenge as evidenced by their 20-41 record this season after a win.
Seattle is also a team that has struggled against left handed pitching this season and tonight they have to go up against one of the better southpaws in the league in Scott Kazmir. Also, let's not forget that this game is being played in Minute Maid Park, a place where not many teams this season have been able to pick up a victory, let along two in a row. Houston is an impressive 46-22 at home this season and have done a great job of entertaining their fans and protecting home field this year. It's highly unlikely that they will allow themselves to lose two in a row to a team that is 11 games back of them in the division.
The Astros have the better starting pitcher on the mound, the better bullpen this year, the better coach, better offense; theoretically they should have the advantage in nearly every aspect of this matchup. We rarely release plays with these types of odds, however we do believe the odds should have been set much higher in this particular matchup, because of the value we are going to take advantage of the cheaper price. The Astros should bounce back from last night's defeat and come away with the win and the series tonight.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Houston is 7-2 at home this season against Seattle.
- Scott Kazmir is 25-5 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 in his career!
- Seattle is 16-27 against left handed starters this season.
- Scott Kazmir has only given up 4 earned runs in his last 20 innings against the M's!
Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.