September 1, 2015 (Posted at 4:00 PM ET)
August marked our 5th consecutive winning month! September is here and so is the start of the football season. The final 4 months of the year have typically been our most lucrative since they primarily feature our historicaly most profitable sport!
Take KC Royals on the Money Line (-160) against Detroit Tigers risking 4.8% of the bankroll to win 3%.
(Cueto and Verlander must start for wager to have action)
After years of being the proverbial doormat of the AL Central and watching the Detroit Tigers dominate the division, the Kansas City Royals have completely run away with the division this season and we don't expect they will show much mercy for the bottom dwelling Tigers in this series.
Justin Verlander, who has an up and down season this year is coming off arguably his most impressive outing of the season where he flirted with a no hitter before seeing it broken up late in the game. While most may see a result like that and expect the pitcher to carry that momentum into their next start and history has shown that is rarely the case. The fact that Verlander had such an impressive outing we feel actually hurts him in this contest as it leaves him ultimately open for quite a letdown performance.
With these two clubs being divisional rivals, the Royals have a lot of experience against the Tiger's Ace and many have great numbers against him. Meanwhile, KC's Johnny Cueto came over from the Cincinnati Reds, which is a National League team so not many players on the Tiger's roster have seen him before. He's allowed only 10 hits in 78 previous at-bats against Detroit and has held this particular group to a .128 batting average and a less than .200 on-base percentage! Cueto is an extremely consistent a tough pitcher on the mound, even against lineups who have had experience against him. Tonight he should have a clear advantage on the mound, especially in the early going. Not to mention that fact that the Royals bullpen is one of the best in the league which should give them an overall advantage on the mound at all times in the game.
A lot of talk this season has been made about the Tiger's explosive offense and powerful lineup and rightfully so. However, what many don't realize is in fact that the Royals have been statistically slightly better offensive team. The Royal have scored a total of 569 runs on the season while the Tigers have scored 567. The difference is that while the Tigers have scored a majority of their runs playing power ball and going yard, the Royal have done things the fundamentally sound way with timely hitting and solid base running. The Royal's also have done a majority of their damage against right handed pitching this season, which Verlander is while the Tigers have feasted on southpaws this season but have struggled somewhat against righties.
Kansas City lost their most recent contest, but comes into this one off a day of rest. At home, rested off a defeat we believe they should be priced around the -175 mark in this contest. We have rarely had plays on the "bigger favorites" this season, but in this particular case we believe the odds are too far off not to take advantage. There is value in this number as the price should be steeper. Kansas City simply has too many advantages in this game and should come away with the win over their division rivals.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Tigers have lost their last 7 games as an underdog!
- Royals are 22-8 in their last 30 games after a rest day.
- Tigers are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Royals are 39-22 vs. AL teams whose starting pitcher has a WHIP of 1.3 or less on the season!
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