October 31, 2015 (11:00 AM ET)
There are 4 picks today!
Three college plays were released on Friday. Scroll down to view them. A baseball pick has been added.
Sports Profit System has profited in 7 of the first 8 Saturdays of the NCAA football season!
1) Take Temple at +11 spread against Notre Dame for 3% of the bankroll.
The Temple Owls have been one of the biggest surprised this season as they currently sit at 7-0 and ranked #21 in the AP polls. After a 6-6 season last year and being snubbed for a Bowl Game, the Owls have certainly played with a chip on their shoulders and it has been showing in their play on the field.
ESPN College Gameday is scheduled to make a stop in Philadelphia this week and this game is slated to be the Primetime game televised nationally. This is by far the biggest game that Temple has ever been involved in and we expect them to show up. The Temple gameplan is simple, run the ball with Jahad Thomas and play solid defense. That type of gameplan is going to be key against Notre Dame in this contest. Notre Dame ranks 85th in the league in rush defense so as long as Temple continuously feeds Thomas, he should be able to make plays in the open field and move the chains.
There is no question that Notre dame is a quality team. They have a dynamic run game and have arguably the most speed in the country at the receiver position with Will Fuller on the edge. The strength of Notre Dame this season has been their big play ability. In their last contest against USC and on the first play of the game, Will Fuller sped right past Adoree Johnson, one of the fastest corners in the country and hooked up with Deshone Kizer for a 75 yard touchdown pass. Temple ranks 11th in the country in sacks as they currently have 23 on the season. Their ability to pressure Kizer in the pocket and not allow the Irish speedy receivers time to stretch the field is paramount in this contest. Tyler Matakevich is going to be a player to watch in this contest on defense. The senior middle linebacker is a one-man wrecking crew. He leads Temple with 65 tackles and four interceptions and is second on the team in tackles for lost yardage and sacks. The Owls have the nation’s sixth-ranked rushing defense and Matakevich is the main reason that they are so successful. The Irish know firsthand just how good of a player he is. In the 2013 game in South Bend, Matakevich had 11 total tackles, seven solo, with two tackles for lost yardage. He could be a key player in this contest tonight.
Temple will not be able to match the talent level that the Irish has, but that does not mean that they won't be competitive in this contest and in fact are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog of more than 4 points. They play a solid fundamental style of football; They run the ball extremely well, protect the football and play solid defense. If they can prevent the big plays and limit the Irish to field goals instead of touchdowns, they will keep this game competitive. Temple is undefeated for a reason. They have a big win over a solid Penn State team and just took down another quality team in East Carolina on the road. This will be the Owl's biggest test this season but we believe they will be up for it. They will feed off the energy of the crowd and even if they don't manage to get the outright win, they will keep this well within the generous impost the odds makers have set. At the end of the day, all that matters is who cashes our tickets and we believe the points come into play in this one.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS in the first game of back to back road games.
- Brian Kelly is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of more than 8 points vs a .500 or better opponent.
- Notre Dame is 4-12 ATS after a game in which they scored 40 or more points!
2) Take Washington State at +10.5 spread against Stanford for 3% of the bankroll.
It took Head Coach Mike Leach a few seasons, but his Air-Raid offense that he brought over from Texas Tech is finally starting to pay dividends. The Washington State Cougars have now won 3 in row after upending the Arizona Wildcats 45-42 in Arizona. The Stanford Cardinal meanwhile continued their winning ways after rolling over a hapless Washington Huskies team, 31-14.
The interesting thing about these two teams is that the Stanford Cardinal, as impressive as they have been have had the luxury of playing their last their last 3 games on their home field in Palo Alto. This will be the first time they have taken the road since September 25th! Meanwhile Washington State has been on a 3 game winning streak while playing 2 of their 3 games against conference opponents on the road! Now being back in the comforts of home, we expect Washington State to elevate their game even more.
While their defense certainly leaves little to be desired, their offense under QB Luke Falk has been rolling at the moment. The Cougars average over nearly 500 yards of offense per game through the air and Falk should be able to take advantage of a somewhat questionable Cardinal secondary. There is no doubt the Stanford offense runs through dynamic RB Christian McCaffery. McCaffery is a beast on the ground and has the playmaking ability to gash opposing defenses. While he will no doubt have success on the ground, we expect the Cougars to load the box and force QB Kevin Hogan beat them through the air. Stanford will likely try to slow the game down by running McCaffery and keep Falk off the field.
Hogan has played well this season but he has no doubt regressed over the years and is not the threat through the air that he has been early in his career. Even though the Washington State defense gives up yards on defense, the offense behind Falk has shown the ability to keep games close. Even if Stanford gets out to a big lead, this is a lot of points to give an Air-Raid offense that has the ability to sneak in the backdoor. Stanford is simply looking to walk out of Washington with a win; they are not a tea like Baylor who is looking to simply pour points on the opposition and blow out their opponents. This game will be closer than people expect and Stanford will be lucky to walk out of the stadium with the win.
3) Take San Diego State at -3 spread against Colorado State for 3% of the bankroll.
After a rough start to the year, the San Diego State Aztecs have been nothing short of impressive in conference play this season. They are 4-0 against Mountain West opponents, and what has been most impressive is that their games haven’t even been close. San Diego State has beaten their conference opponents by an average of 21.25 points per game this season. Most recently they blew out the Aggies of Utah State in their last conference contest and a big part of their success has been because of their dynamic rushing attack. San Diego State‘s running game is led by Donnel Pumphrey who managed to put up 181 yards and two touchdowns on the ground against Utah State. Pumphrey will try to exploit a weak Colorado State defense in this contest.
The Rams have been giving up 261.8 rushing yards per game in their last four contests and that is an area we feel that plays directly in SDSU's gameplan. The Aztecs managed to beat a solid Utah State team easily that beat this same Rams team by 15 points earlier this season. The Aztecs are a team that protects the football and dominates the line of scrimmage. The Aztecs have the advantage in nearly every aspect of this game. The have managed to outscore their past two opponents 78-21 and this is yet another contest where we believe they should roll.
SDSU has been severely underrated over the last couple of weeks, but after this game, we expect the market to finally adjust and catch up with this team. This is likely the last time the Aztecs have any real value and we suggest taking them in this contest at this affordable spread.
4) Take NY Mets on the Money Line (-138) against KC Royals risking 4.14% of the bankroll to win 3%.
(Matz and Young must start for wager to have action)
Steven Jakob Matz is a young pitcher that many are still not familiar with. The 24-year old New Yorker grew up a Mets fan and established himself as the #4 pitcher in this rotation ahead of experienced veterans such as Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese! While the pundits expected big things from the likes of Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom this season, few expected Matz to start games of such magnitude. He's shown Terry Collins and company more than enough to secure their trust. Matz may be a rookie but he's a grounded and mature one and this point in the season, has enough experience and confidence to succeed on the big stage having already pitched in some huge games. Earlier in the season, he started against the Yankees in the Subway Series and more recently, he started the NLCS clincher (Game 4) as he and teammates swept the Cubs! While he hasn't lasted as deep into the games as he would have liked, he has been solid for the 4-5 innings he has pitched, often limiting the opposing lineup.
One of the very few weaknesses that this Kansas City lineup has is their ability to produce against left-handed pitchers. That's because while they dominated righties for much of the season, they often struggled against southpaws and own a mediocre record against them. Now after facing three hard-throwing righties including Noah Syndergaard yesterday, they have to suddenly get used to Steven Matz' delivery and release point/angle which will provide challenging. That's because Matz is not only a lefty but one that the Royals have never faced before! It'll no doubt take most of them one or two at-bats to get familiar with his style and by then, Terry Collins may well go to his well rested relievers. Plate appearances are never easy against a crafty southpaw that the bats have not seen before. Unlike his counterpart, the scouting report is fairly short on Steven Matz as he's still just beginning his MLB career.
Opposing him on the mound will be veteran right-hander Chris Young. The cultured Texas native is an epitome of professionalism and consistency but finds himself in a tough spot tonight. That's because he was asked to throw 53 pitches in Game 1 of the series in relief as the opener went to extra innings! He did a brilliant job at the time and helped his team secure the W on that occasion but we believe it has come at a price. That's because he no longer presents the 'surprise' factor that he was supposed to in this crucial Game 4 clash. The NY bats each had at least one at-bat against him and some even had two plate appearances. As a 36-year old, Young does not throw hard. He relies on deception and his elevated release point to baffle hitters. His height at 6 foot 10 inches presents a unique challenge for most batters at first since they rarely face a hurler as tall as him. After the first couple of times through the order however, he becomes increasingly predictable as the hitters start seeing the ball better and he doesn't have the power to throw bullets past them. The fact that the Mets have had extended at-bats against him as recently as just 4 days ago gives them a big advantage over KC bats who've never faced Steven Matz before.
Ned Yost had to use his entire bullpen excluding closer Wade Davis in last night's matchup and that may well prove costly tonight. That's because Yordano Ventura lasted just 3 innings yesterday prompting the coaching staff to employ 7 total pitchers to get through the game! If there was a day of rest in between Game 3 and Game 4, it may not have mattered as much but since there is such a short turnaround before Game 4 gets on the way, this gives Mets yet another edge. They have a deep and talented bullpen much like the Royals but the difference is that their relievers are fresher and better prepared to be called upon tonight. Syndergaard didn't have his sharpest outing but he did give the pitching staff 6 full innings which allowed veterans like Colon and Niese to get the day off. It also allowed setup-men Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard and closer Familia to regain their confidence against the Royal bats in was a lower pressure situation as the Mets were winning 9-3 at that point! Collins managed the game well yesterday and can help his team even up the series at 2-2 if he does so again.
The World Series at Citi Field brought a packed ball park of nearly 45,000 capacity! The fans have been waiting a long time to see that and will boost this team's chances as they now believe that they are right back in this. The Royals were cruising 2-0 in this series and are still the better overall team in our opinion. BUT, the momentum has shifted for now and it is the Mets that have numerous advantages in this quick rematch. Look for them to capitalize on this unique situation and even up the series at 2 games apiece. Chris Young is not only pitching on 3 days rest but will not be able to surprise hitters the way he did in his first appearances against them. Meanwhile one extra advantage that few are talking about but could decide the game is Steven Matz' ability to do damage with the bat! He's one of the better pitchers in the Majors when it comes to swinging the barrel and has already hit home runs! Given that this game is being hosted by the Mets, National League rules will apply which means the pitchers need to bat. Matz is a dangerous lefty that can be a powerful hitter when feasting on mistakes. One final fact that is worth noting is that the Mets are 18-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season!
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