October 29, 2015 (2:00 PM ET)
Sports Profit System finally lost an Over/Under pick yesterday after an extremely high scoring (65 points) fourth quarter!
Our extended winning streak with totals (Over/Under bets) is now 42-21 having cashed them out at a 67% clip!
There are two picks tonight.
1) Take the UNDER 51.5 total points in Dolphins vs. Patriots for 3% of the bankroll.
Since Dan Campbell has taken over the coaching duties, the Miami Dolphins are a completely different team! They are playing with much more emotion and intensity than at the start of the season under passive Joe Philbin and it has certainly paid dividends. The biggest improvement we have seen thus far is on the defensive side of the ball. In the offseason, Miami secured the services of Ndamakong Suh and the Dolphin defense was supposed to be one of the best in the league and while it took them a while to gel, it appears that they are now starting to play up to the expectation many had in the offseason.
It's no secret that Tom Brady doesn't like to get hit. He is a master of stepping up in the pocket but when the pressure comes from the inside, he has little room to maneuver. The Dolphins have recorded 9 sacks in just their last two games alone and have seemingly taken Cameron Wake off his leash and could be a difference maker in this contest. If the Miami defense can put pressure on Brady, it could cause the three time Superbowl MVP to be less than his usual excellent self. These teams match up very well together and there is a reason why the 'Under' has cashed in 4 of the 6 last meeting between the two clubs.
There are very few teams in the league who can survive getting into a shootout with the New England Patriots, especially at Gillette Stadium where they have been nearly unbeatable the past several years. Brady and company are extremely methodical on offense and simply appear to march down the field play after play. Miami's best chance to potentially win this game is to be able to employ a run game, win the time of possession battle and keep Tom Brady off the field. At the very least they will need to limit the Patriots to field goals instead of touchdowns on every drive, otherwise this game could get out of handle in a hurry.
This is a divisional rivalry on a short week in a prime time game. While many are expecting this to be a high scoring affair, we actually believe it will be lower scoring than many expect. Both teams will put up points, but we also expect both defenses to come up big in the red zone at times and limit each other to field goals instead of touchdowns. That will be the deciding factor as this game will be a little lower scoring than the betting public anticipates.
2) Take Oregon at +3 spread (buy half a point) against Arizona State for 3% of the bankroll.
This is an incredibly important game as both squads come into this matchup with identical 4-3 records, but more importantly both are just 2-2 in conference play. This particular contest will serve as a death sentence for one team this season in hope of potentially playing for a Pac-12 title.
The Arizona Sun Devils are a team that has issues this season. In their last contest against the then highly ranked Utah Utes, the Sun Devils failed to score an offensive touchdown for the first time in the Todd Graham era. Through seven weeks this season this team is still dealing with basic fundamental issues that have resulted in up and down performances all season long. Dropped passes, fumbling of the football, miscommunication; while all seem like correctable issues, one has to wonder if those correction will ever happen.
ASU also has issues with their offensive line. They rank 109th nationally and allow an average of 3 sacks per game. They are also ranked 115th in tackles for loss and have had a hard time getting any semblance of a ground game going and that has shown on the scoreboard. The Sun Devils average just 29.1 points per game, which is the lowest under the Todd Graham era. In previous seasons they have average 38.4, 39.7 & 36.9 respectively. That doesn't bode well considering the Oregon Ducks have beaten the Sun Devils 8 straight times, including 5 straight trips to Tempe!
There is no doubt that this has also been a down year for the Oregon Ducks. Everyone knew that there would be a bit of a regression with the loss of Heisman Trophy winning QB Marcus Mariota so the ducks struggles are no so much of a surprise. That being said, this is still an elite team in the Pac-12, despite having 3 losses on the year. Injuries have played a big part in the Ducks struggles this season, but they will once again get a boost in this contest with Vernon Adams under center. Adams returned in the Ducks last contest after being out for a number of weeks with a broken finger. Adams adds another dimension to this offense with a passing game that was lacking when Jeff Lockie was under center.
The Sun Devils have somewhat struggled on the defensive side of the ball as well as they have allowed 27 passing plays of more than 20 yards this season. They are a team that likes to blitz and that can be costly against a team that likes to run like the Ducks do. Blitz at the wrong time and Royce Freeman will be off to the races. Get fooled by a play action pass and it's a big play down field for Adams. The Sun Devils are also one of the worst teams in the league at forcing turnovers this season. They have only forced 3 fumbles and 6 interceptions on the year which could be the difference in this matchup tonight.
Oregon is a team that likes to run the football and has the ability to finish drives in the redzone. A big problem for the Sun Devils this season has been their inability to finish drives and come away with touchdowns. Only a few teams have the capability to be able to beat the Oregon Ducks by kicking field goals and those are typically teams with elite level defenses, something that Arizona State does not have. The Ducks got back to form and picked up a big win against Washington in their last contest and we expect them to have another big game in Tempe tonight. The Ducks should win this game outright, but taking the points presents a very nice bonus and is a great insurance plan.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Oregon is 13-2 ATS when playing a road game after a bye week!
- Oregon is 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in this series since 2005.
- Oregon is 40-17 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 dating back to 1992!
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