October 27, 2015 (2:00 PM ET)
The NBA season tips off tonight on what is a limited 3-game schedule with less than ideal lines. There is always additional uncertainty on opening night and investors are wise to take a pass and pick their spots tomorrow on what is a full card and one that presents MUCH better value! For that reason, SPS, the service that topped all charts thanks to a documented and verified 83-60 record last season, will officially get its NBA season underway on Wednesday.
Tonight is all about the World Series where we aim to improve on our outstanding 90-66 MLB record!
Take Kansas City Royals as underdogs (+100) on the Money Line against NY Mets risking 3% to win 3%.
(Volquez and Harvey must start for wager to have action)
The culmination of a season's worth of work comes down to these final seven games. This is a big moment for both of these teams and this is a series that can put a lot of undue pressure on players to perform. For the Royals, this is their second trip to the Series in as many years and we believe that will instill a certain confidence and calm about being on the big stage. They have been here before, know what the atmosphere is like and know what is on the line. The Royals came about as close as you can come to winning a World Series last season, with their tying run in Game 7 being just 90 feet away. They know that pain that comes with losing at this point in the season and we believe that is an intangible advantage that they will hold over their opponent, not only in this opening game, but for a majority of the series.
The Mets will arguably have the advantage when it comes to starting pitching for basically the entire series. New York's hurlers throw fast and throw hard and their fastballs have been able to baffle hitters in both series leading up to this one. While that has been a strength of the Mets this series, we believe it could be their downfall in this particular series. The Kansas City Royals are the best contact team in the league! They are patient at the plate and their ability to put the bat on the ball is almost uncanny. They have a squad that thrives on fastballs and the Mets pitching style suits them.
While the Mets will have the edge when it comes to starting pitching, it will be the Royals who likely hold the edge is all other facets of the game. They have the better hitters, the better bullpen and the better defense. Kansas City is a team that plays fundamental baseball extremely well. They make contact with the ball and re aggressive with their base running. They have no issues swiping a base or two when they opportunity is fit and consistently seem to have runners in scoring position. That is an extremely hard style to defend. While some team live or die by homeruns (like the Mets) Kansas City plays small ball extremely well and that makes them incredibly dangerous.
In this Game 1 matchup, let's not forget that the Mets have had a lengthy layoff and Matt Harvey himself will take the mound having last pitched 10 days ago! While many may look at the extra rest as a positive, we know for a fact that there is such a thing as 'over resting' when it comes to time off in MLB. We expect the Mets to come into this game just a bit rusty and will likely take them some time to adjust not only to playing baseball again, but to adjust to the gravity of the moment on this big time stage as well.
The opener is also being played at Kauffman Stadium which immediately gives Kansas City an advantage. The Royals home field is what would be considered a 'pitcher friendly' park, meaning that it is much tougher for teams to hit ball that leave the ball park. It forces teams to play small ball, something that the Royals do extremely well. If the Mets don't have the long ball to hang their hat on, they may have trouble plating runs in this venue.
One of the main areas that the Royals will hold an advantage is in the catcher position. While Travis D'Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki are solid behind the plate, we don't believe they are on the same level as someone like Salvatore Perez. Perez is not only a veteran but he is also a leader for the Royals. It's also important to know that D'Arnaud has thrown out just 29.8% of base runners trying to steal and is 0-4 this postseason. The Royals will no doubt present an interesting challenge when D'Arnaud is behind the plate.
Something else that is interesting in this matchup and is a testament to just how good of a coach Ned Yost is, if you look at the Royals batting order, he almost always alternates up the handedness of his batters. He goes from right handed hitter, to lefty, back to righty and so on. This is an interesting tactic as it negates opposing managers from bringing in a left handed pitcher to battle a left handed hitter in the lineup. Essentially Yost has taking the opposing managers ability to manage his bullpen rotation. This may seem like a somewhat insignificant move, but is actually a very well thought out strategy and yet just another edge the Royals will hold over their opponents.
The Royals have a chance this season to finish what they started last year and we believe that comes with making a statement and taking the first game of this series. Harvey is no doubt a great pitcher, but we believe the Royals will make it difficult on him tonight. If Kansas City can mound an early lead or keep things close going into the later innings, their bullpen will likely be the deciding factor with Davis closing out the game. Take the Royals in Game 1.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Royals are 18-8 in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
- Mets are just 51-76 after 3 or more games of not giving up a stolen base!
- Royals are 62-39 this season when listed in the +125 to -125 range!
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