October 20, 2015 (2:00 PM ET)
Take Toronto Blue Jays on the Money Line (-146) against KC Royals risking 4.38% of bankroll to win 3%.
(Dickey and Young must start for wager to have action)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals square off once again in an all-important Game 4 clash. The Royals had a chance to take a commanding 3-0 series lead last night, however Johnny Cueto was hammered for 8 runs on 6 hits (4 walks) by the hard-hitting Toronto bats in just over 2 frames! Kris Medlen was forced to take over pitching duties after Cueto's early exit and Ned Yost has decided to go with Chris Young on the mound which puts them at a disadvantage.
While Young has been impressive, he is a fly-ball pitcher, which plays exactly into the area where the Blue Jays are the strongest. Among pitchers with 100 or more innings thrown during the regular season, Young had the most extreme fly-ball rate in the league (57.9%). Because of this his home run rate was high (1.2 per 9 innings) despite the fact he pitched in a very pitcher friendly park. Now facing a home run hitting team and a hitter friendly park, Young could be in for a very rough, or even very short outing tonight. He's had only had two starts in October with the last one coming on Oct 8th! That is a 12-day layoff which will likely make him rusty at least in the first few innings. This is simply not an ideal scenario for Young.
The Jays will counter with veteran knuckle-baller, RA Dickey. Dickey had his last start back on Oct 12th, so he should be in much more game-ready shape than his counterpart tonight. He is also a knuckle-ball pitcher which poses a unique issue for the Royals bats. Kansas City is not a team that sees a whole lot of knuckleball pitchers and that could cause them frustrations at the plate tonight. When Dickey is on, his pitchers are incredibly difficult to track down, so the normally patient Royals bats could become a little impatient tonight. It will take quite a few adjustments by Yost's lineup to go from a hard throwing youngster like Stroman to a 40 year old off speed knuckleball pitcher in Dickey!
Let's not forget that Toronto desperately needed to win last night and did just that. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it in their preferred style which is a high scoring shootout, something few teams survive at the Rogers Center. That victory has likely renewed their confidence coming into this contest in what is such a short turnaround. As long as the Blue Jays bats can avoid hitting into multiple double-plays, they should once again outslug the Royals in what will again be a game with a good amount of runs. They have the intangibles such as home field advantage, momentum, confidence, etc. as well as starting pitching edge. It's also worth mentioning that home teams are 19-10 in Hunter Wendelstedt (HP umpire) games this season! After a few controversial moments in postseason already this year when things have gone against Toronto, they may just get a few 50-50 calls today. All things included, the Jays should do enough to win another game and even up this intriguing series.
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