October 18, 2015 (11:00 AM ET)
There are two NFL picks today. We've decided against the 3rd play due to updated injury reports.
A hugely profitable week has been secured regardless of what happens today after celebrating our 6th winning Saturday out of seven!
1) Take Minnesota Vikings at -3.5 spread against Kansas City Chiefs for 3% of the bankroll.
Kansas City has lost 4 consecutive games since its 27-20 win against Houston in the season opener. The Chiefs not only lost 18-17 at home to a very poor Chicago team last Sunday but will be without star RB Jamaal Charles for the remainder of the season. Their recent loss to the Bears is especially concerning because of the brutal manner it came. They dominated for 3 full quarters and led comfortably but allowed Chicago to hang around and ultimately paid for with 18 seconds left! This is the second deflating loss that they have experienced this season. Their loss to the Denver Broncos where they gave up 2 touchdowns in less than a minute had already sent this team into a tailspin and we believe last Sunday's shocker will have all but eliminated them! While they aren't mathematically out of it, this squad is now demoralized and dejected! Kansas City averaged 23.4 points per game, which ranked 14th among NFL teams, through five games. But without Charles, who accounted for four of the offense's 15 touchdowns, that average will likely see a decline.
Kansas City defense is allowing an average of 98.6 rushing yards per game. But aside from Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy (who was limited to just 10 carries) the Chiefs haven't faced an elite NFL running back until now. Peterson is averaging 5.0 yards per carry and still ranks eighth in the league in rushing, despite the Vikings' early bye week. We expect the Vikings to hand the ball to AP early and often and he should have quite a productive day on the ground.
The Vikings' 2-2 record this season is deceptive. Minnesota has an extremely poor performance in their week 1 loss against San Francisco, but they have improved drastically each and every game this season. Teddy Bridgewater has been impressive in his second season thus far and has become quite the game manager to provide the Vikings consistent passing when needed. Against Denver, Bridgewater nearly completed a successful comeback on the road against one of the NFL's top defenses which shows the potential this kid has and should give him confidence moving forward.
This is a terrible situation for the Chiefs to find themselves in. They were somewhat one dimensional with Charles in the backfield and now with him gone, it will be interesting to see how Andy Reid changes his game plan. We doubt we will see a drastic change in game plan and don't expect Alex Smith to suddenly start airing the ball out 50+ times per game. It will likely be the same game plan with less of a playmaker in the backfield. The Chiefs may eventually be alright moving forward, but in their first game without Charles we expect their offense to be even more out of sorts. Minnesota is not only the better team bu has a lot more to gain and lose. Unlike Andy Reid's roster, they are hardly out of it. They still have a good chance to make the playoffs but need to win home games such as this to avoid dropping below .500! Fresh off a bye week that saw them rest well and get extra prep for this contest, they should grab a convincing win against the deflated Chiefs.
2) Take the UNDER 41 total points in Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers for 3% of the bankroll.
Both Ron Rivera & Pete Carroll have been fairly vocal about their coaching styles and share similar philosophies in defensive organization. Both coaches wants to win ball games by running the football and playing strong defense. They also like their quarterbacks to make play outside of the pocket. These teams are more similar than many think and because of this they have typically played in closely contested matchups.This will be the fourth consecutive year that these two franchises have met in the regular season. Seattle has won each of the previous 3 regular-season games by five points or fewer and the Panthers have been held to just 12 points or less in each of those games! It's important to know that each of those meetings have been played in Carolina so this matchup gives Seattle a distinct advantage.
Playing at Century Link Field is a daunting task for any visiting team. Not only is it an incredibly loud venue but the Seahawks themselves seem to 'up' their level of play at home. Their offense clicks just a little bit more and their defense seems to clamp down even harder on opposing offenses. This venue has seen the most amount of low-scoring games in NFL over the last few years and that has led to a lot of 'unders'. For the Seahawks to have held the Panthers to just 12 points or less in each of their last 3 meetings, says a lot and that was when the Panthers actually had some talent on their offensive roster.
This is a game that is going to be a battle of field position and one that purists should enjoy watching. We feel that offense is going to be tough to come by. Seattle has thrived on the big plays this season but they may find that tougher to execute with captain Luke Kuechly back in the lineup for Carolina. They run the ball so effectively that it allows Wilson to set up play action and find the open man down the field. The Panthers have a stout secondary and if they can limit the big plays down the field, they will have a chance to hang around. Let's not forget that Ron Rivera's physical defense is coming off a bye week which meant they are well rested and extra prepared for this clash. The Seahawks defense on the other hand wants to bounce back and flex its muscle after giving up a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter! Both teams know what their strength and identity is (defense first) and we expect them to go back to that.
We don't see a lot of offensive touchdowns being scored in this contest. Both defenses tend to tighten up in the red zone and make it extremely difficult for teams to finish drives with TDs. If that is indeed the case again today, we expct to see more drives end in punts and field goals than touchdowns. The first team to 20 points likely wins this game and if we are correct with our assesment, that would cause this game to fall just Under the total. The two defensive units are more capable than their offensive counterparts and it should show up in some great tackles and coverage if cheap pass interception flags are not thrown in by the referees. The two coaches rely heavily on their kickers and that should help keep the game relatively low scoring.
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