October 1, 2015 (Posted at 2:00 PM ET)
There is one NFL and one college football pick tonight.
Sports Profit System owns an unrivaled 84-61 MLB record this season!
September didn't start or end particularly well but was another solid month overall and added double-digit units (11.34) to our bankroll. SPS clients are celebrating their 6th consecutive winning month! That's how we define consistency.
1) Take Cincinnati at +7 spread against Miami Florida for 3% of the bankroll.
The Cincinnati Bearcats will be without QB Gunner Kiel in this contest, however while many may be put off by that fact, we believe that is actually what has set up the value in this particular play. Tommy Tuberville is a coach who has always preached his "next man up" philosophy, especially when it comes to his quarterbacks and this Bearcats team is no different. Kiel went out with a neck injury in their last contest against Memphis and Hayden Moore came in off the bench and completely lit the field on fire. The Bearcats managed to gain a school record 752 yards of offense while Moore himself threw for a school record 557 yards all while on the road! Moore will make his first start and with him now being in the comforts of his home stadium, (a place where the Bearcats are 13-3-1 in their last 17 games when listed as a home underdog of 4 or more points) we expect him to have a similar showing tonight.
Meanwhile, Al Golden's team has had an impressive showing so far this year as they come into this contest undefeated on the season. While that certainly is impressive, we do believe it is a bit misleading however as this will be their first "true road game" out of the state of Florida and we expect them to struggle in this contest. This is also a revenge game for the Bearcats as Miami defeated them 55-34 last season in Miami. Given the fact that Tommy Tuberville’s team is an impressive 18-3 ATS when listed as an underdog in non-conference revenge games, he will have his team prepared for this contest and Cincinnati should find a way to make things interesting.
While many will expect that with the extra week to prepare given the Hurricanes bye week, we don't believe that will be the case. An extra week of really usually means that teams come into their next contests more rested and focused, but that is not the case with this Miami team. Miami is 0-12 ATS as a favorite of 4 or more points when coming off of rest so that shows that they have historically come out flat in contests where many expect them to be fresh and motivated. A team like Miami also isn't used to playing these types of weekday contests, especially on the road while Cincinnati has grown accustomed to playing during the week as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a weekday.
The Bearcats will be competitive in this contest and if Miami gets caught trying to sleepwalk through this game, we wouldn't be surprised to see Cincinnati pull off the outright upset. Either way, taking the points has the most value in this contest as they are likely to come into play.
2) Take Baltimore Ravens on the Money Line (-150) against Pittsburgh Steelers risking 4.5% to win 3%.
Much like baseball picks, this is a Money Line wager.
Just 3 weeks into the NFL season and the Baltimore Ravens already find themselves in a must win situation. They are 0-3 on the season, however in a reality had a couple of breaks come their way, they could very easily be looking at starting the season 3-0. They have played well but as the old adage states, "you are what your record says you are" and we don't believe that sits well with this Ravens club. They will come into this game extremely focused on picking up their first win and turning their season around and that's why we believe the money line is the best value in this contest. Our motivation and goal lines up perfectly with what the Ravens want to accomplish tonight.
Meanwhile the Pittsburgh Steelers have had their own share of struggles this season and it culminated last week with the injury to their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger is out of this contest with a knee injury and anyone who has followed the Steelers know that Big Ben is a huge part of the Steelers success. His ability to keep plays alive while scrambling through the pocket is something that this team will miss. Michael Vick in his heyday was a hell of a football player, but there is no doubt that age has caught up with him. He's not quite the mobile threat that he was in years past. This will also be his first start in a Steeler's uniform and we expect him to make a few mistakes in this contest.
There is no doubt that Pittsburgh will rely heavily on the ground game with Le'Veon Bell, unfortunately for them however is that the Ravens have not allowed a 100+ yard rusher in their last 26 games. Their defense is extremely stout against the run and if that is the case again tonight, we believe the Steelers will have trouble moving the ball with any type of consistency.
The Steelers are also not the same team on defense as they have been in years past. They lost the legendary Dick Lebeau and veteran players like Ike Taylor and Tory Polamalu that were the heart and soul of their defense. They are also dealing with some injuries to players like Ryan Shazier, so with all of the movement and change on the defensive front, Pittsburgh still has not developed the necessary chemistry and cohesion to be a legitimate threat on defense that they have long known to be.
This is also division rivalry game which is likely to be played extremely close. If that is indeed the case, we believe John Harbaugh's team has the edge with their kicker Justin Tucker. Harbaugh has exhibited extreme trust in Tucker and we have seen him march him on the field in an attempt to put points on the board no matter what the distance. This game could come down to a battle of field goals and if it does we believe the Ravens and Tucker will have the edge.
While each team will no doubt be looking to give their all on the national stage, we feel that the Ravens need this game more. Because they will be in desperation mode in this contest, we believe asking them to simply win the game instead of laying any points is the play that has the most value.
Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.