November 29, 2015 (11:00 AM ET)
There are 2 pick today. Please scroll down to view them.
Like most things in life, sports-betting has its ups and downs. We take full responsibility for every pick and display it all, win or lose, because credibility has long set Sports Profit System apart. No one enjoys a losing month but after 7 consecutive winning months including an October that brought in 34.83 units, it was unfortunately inevitable at some point! It's easy to enjoy all the good times and even take them for granted, especially since they are the norm, and dread the bad ones but as long as winning streaks are more frequent than losing ones, it makes great logical sense to follow the advice given our track record.
Rational individuals look at long-term results (large sample size) and realize that this is still the most lucrative investment as PROVEN by annual and seasonal results. Bad days are sadly part of the game but there is no worse time to jump off than after a rare poor stretch! That's because they are often followed by hot streaks. The fact is that there are twelve months in a year and no handicapping service in the world wins all 12! The key, therefore, is to have more profitable periods than losing ones and that's exactly what loyal SPS clients have experienced over the years.
We apologize for the recent downturn and are confident of turning it around as we always have!
1) Take Minnesota Vikings at +2 spread against Atlanta Falcons for 3% of the bankroll.
After a perfect 5-0 start to the season under new head coach, Dan Quinn, the Falcons have sputtered recently dropping 4 of their last 5 games! Their lone win in that rough stretch came at Tennessee in a 10-7 game in which could have gone the other way. To say, they are struggling would be an understatement but their task isn't gonna get any easier this afternoon. That's because they now go up against one of the best defenses they have seen, in the Vikings, without their best RB, Devonta Freeman. Not only that, Leonard Hankerson will miss out as well but while the receiver's loss won't be a big one, the absence of kicker Matt Bryant could decide this game! Bryant is a veteran kicker who is likely to finally miss a game with an injured quad. He's been highly dependable for this franchise over the years and although another veteran (Graham) will be filling in for him today, he's new to ATL and this field and may well have debut nerves given that he signed with the Falcons only 3 days ago! The average bettor does not think much about 'kickers', 'punters' and special teams but they often determine which side edges closely contested games and this could be another one.
The Vikings have not only played the tougher schedule of games thus far but sport the better record as well. They are 7-3 on the season and can take a big step toward a possible NFC North title after the Packers dropped another game, on Thanksgiving! After losing to their main rivals last Sunday, Minnesota may well have been feeling down, believing that they may have lost their chance for winning the division. Packers' surprising upset at the hands of Bears will have no doubt renewed their faith again however! That's because they are now atop the division again and will stay there unless they lose today. Adrian Peterson is a leader for this team and has a personal history of bouncing back after poor performances. That's proven by the fact that he's averaged 98 rushing yards and 1.2 TDs after a disappointing game in which he had rushed for 50 or less yards! That shows character. Mike Zimmer has assembled a squad of players that are quietly confident and play fundamentally sound football. They run the ball well, play solid defense and often rely on kicker Blair Walsh to hit field goals if they fail in the red zone.
They have their full complement of running-backs today in Peterson, Asiata and McKinnon while Atlanta does not. QB Matt Ryan is having a poor season by his high standards and has made some bad throws in recent weeks. We expect the Vikings defense to finally create a turnover or two and believe it could happen against a 'desperate' Falcons squad that may force the issue at times. Captain Munnerlyn, Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are some of the best set of defensive players that no one is talking much about. This is a unit that has allowed an average of just 18.4 points per game! Meanwhile on offense, they are extremely balanced and that makes them their next play hard to predict. Teddy Bridgewater is capable of scrambling and creating something on his own. He is growing more confident and comfortable with each start.
The Vikings had won 5 straight games before dropping that home game to Green Bay. Luckily for them, all is not lost and they have an immediate chance to respond and get back in the win column! They have the opportunity to create separation from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and we don't believe they'll waste it again. Unlike the Falcons, they aren't having a confidence crisis! They know they are a good team and are determined to display it again. The fact that this matchup could also decide the NFC Wild Card come the end of the season, will give both sides an extra edge and motivation. Minnesota knows that their schedule isn't about to get any easier since they have to face Seattle and then Arizona in the following two games. They must get the job done against a reeling Atlanta squad therefore and the players know that. Look for them to edge out another close game as they have done for much of the season, now that they are road underdogs, a role they are much more comfortable with than being installed as favorites.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Minnesota is 7-2 in games with lines between +3 and -3 this season!
- Falcons are an abysmal 0-11 ATS over the last 3 years as a favorite after they forced 2+ turnovers!
- Falcons have won just 1 of 12 games against teams with winning records over the last 3 seasons!
2) Take Jacksonville Jaguars at -5 spread against San Diego Chargers for 3% of the bankroll.
While both of these teams have struggled this season, this is an interesting matchup from a handicapping perspective. This has been a nightmare of a season for the San Diego Chargers. They are just 2-8 on the season and 3-7 ATS. They are coming off a thoroughly embarrassing performance at home last week where they were blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs, 33-3. The Chargers have been bitten hard by the injury bug this season and have been without numerous playmakers on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The one bright spot on this team has been Philip Rivers, however with the Bolts lack of any kind of consistent ground game and the fact that their offensive line can't protect him, Rivers has been a man on an island, trying to do everything himself and at this point in the season, it has started to catch up with him. Teams need to have balance in order to be successful in NFL and right now San Diego is completely one dimensional and their opponents have taken advantage of that.
The fact that they are just 2-8 on the season leaves no doubt that their season is just about over. They are not in any contention for the postseason and in fact, if they continue down the path that they are on, they will be entitled to the number 1 pick in next year’s draft. With so much talent projected for next year, the Chargers could certainly use a boost that a #1 prospect could bring. We wouldn't be surprised if not only the players but the staff themselves decides to simply go through the motions and put forth half-hearted efforts, knowing that their season is over. Afterall, this team couoldn't get motivated for what could have been one of its final home games, getting completely spanked by division rivals, Chiefs! Now they've had to fly across the country from coast to coast to play what is a rather meaningless game for them. There could be jetlag and the Chargers will be playing another East coast game that will feel like a 10:00 AM game to them! That kind of time zone shift and travel often hinders performance.
The oddsmakers seem to agree as they have opened up the Jaguars as more than a field goal favorite in this contest! The Jacksonville Jaguars are not an elite team by any stretch of the imagination. They have managed to win just 4 games this season but have been playing much better football recently having won three of their last 4 games. The fact that this is just the second time since 2010 that the Jaguars have been listed as more than a field goal favorite against an opponent, certainly speaks volumes on how Vegas expect this game to play out. Jacksonville has also performed well when laying points as they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when listed as the favorites! This is a team that is finally feeling confident in itself after back to back wins and is still in the post-season picture.
The Chargers may not be a San Diego team much longer and there's great confusion surrounding the franchise. Not only that, they are one of the worst defenses in the league this season, ranking 31st, just in front of the Saints as they have been giving up an average of 28.2 points per game to their opponents! The Bolts have also been extremely vulnerable against the pass as they have been allowing 247 yards on average to opposing quarterbacks. That doesn't bode well against a QB like Bortles who has improved a lot this season and has great rapport with his receivers, mainly Allen Hurns and Robinson. The Chargers' front 7 has also struggled against the run this season as well which could set up a big day for former Alabama back, TJ Yeldon. San Diego has allowed an average a 135.75 yards on the ground!
These are two teams trending in opposite directions. The Chargers have dropped their last 5 road games, while the Jax have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 and have gone 4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games! We don't usually recommend laying points with the Jaguars but this is an exceptional situation, in which it is warranted. There is a reason, they are installed as significant favorites for the first time in years! Unless San Diego scores a late meaningless TD for an unfortunate backdoor cover, the Jags should win this game by at least two field goals and remain in AFC South contention.
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