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November 26, 2015

True success and expertise are evaluated by long-term results (large sample size), not one or two weeks.

After adding 34.83 units of profit to our bankroll in October for what was our 7th consecutive winning month, November has been underwhelming thus far! However, we're down only 6 units plus a little bit of juice and have every intention of celebrating another winning month. More importantly, we'll gain at least 100 units of profit by the end of the year, which was an ambitious internal target at the beginning of 2015 but one that is entirely achievable now!

Scroll down to view Thursday's NFL and college football pick which were both released yesterday at 5:40 PM ET.

Sports Profit System would like to wish its members a very happy and safe Thanksgiving surrounded by family and friends. There is so much to be thankful for and we’re especially grateful for all of our valued clients and the great year that we’ve enjoyed together!
 

1) Take Carolina Panthers at +2 spread against Dallas Cowboys for 3% of the bankroll.

The Dallas Cowboys have long been considered "America's team" and scheduling them to play on Thanksgiving day has almost been a tradition! This year presents an interesting matchup as they will have a chance to knock off one of the final two unbeaten NFL teams when they take on the Carolina Panthers. The Cowboys are finally getting healthy with Tony Romo under center and Dez Bryant in the lineup but does that warrant them to be installed as 'favorites' against an elite team? Not at all. Especially since players being deemed fit enough to play does not mean they are 100%. It often takes them a few games to get into optimal shape and Dallas has a lot of 'probable' players that will feature but are still carrying niggling injuries. The 'boys snapped their 7-game losing streak on Sunday by edging Miami. They are no doubt a better team with Romo as the signal-caller, but from our standpoint, the oddsmakers have severely overvalued them in this contest as the Panthers are not the Dolphins!

The undefeated Carolina Panthers with a perfect 10-0 record are listed as underdogs in this contest against a team that is just 3-7 on the season! That shows great disrespect and can only fire up a squad that thrives on proving doubters wrong and has done so all season. Players are often aware of such things and sometimes admit it to the media afterward citing it as 'extra motivation', when not being politically correct and censoring themselves. The Panthers have defied odds through an outstanding defense and a very balanced offense that runs the ball more than any other in the league! That offense is of course led by QB Cam Newton who is playing at an MVP level and has finally put it all together. This is a squad that has won 14 straight regular season games dating back to last year and has fully bought into Ron Rivera's mindset. They are playing as a team and not a sum of individuals.

While the Cowboys no longer have too many key players on the injured reserve, they are still not on the same level as Carolina. Tony Romo is still banged up and is nursing his collarbone injury. Against this hard-nosed Panther defense, he is just a single hit away from being put on the sidelines again. Romo is understandably rusty after spending the last 8 weeks off the field and it is a lot to ask of him to suddenly play 2 games in just 5 days! He made a couple of big mistakes against the less formidable Dolphins and has his work cut out for him. He'll have to be careful with the ball as this Panthers defense leads the NFL in forced turnovers, averaging 2.5 per game!

We are not saying that Dallas will be blown out; in fact we believe it will be a closely contested game and that the Cowboys will keep things competitive and perhaps even put a scare in the Panthers. That being said, Carolina is not a team with many weaknesses. In addition, they've been in prime time games this season and have successfully closed out high-pressure situations. They have adapted and overcome opponents in each and every contest including beating the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field! Cam Newton is playing the best football of his NFL career and just threw 5 TDs to 5 different receivers against another NFC East opponent! He is sharing the ball well among his suddenly confident WRs and the ever-reliable veteran TE Greg Olsen. In the backfield, Jonathan Stewart continues to impress and gives this offense great balance. Carolina was not a team that was on many people's radar this season after losing last year's rookie sensation, Kelvin Benjamin to injury in the offseason but they have proven naysayers wrong and have developed into a legitimate Super Bowl threat! They are playing with a chip on their shoulder and it shows in their play on the field. This is not a team that will lose their first game without a fight and this line is an insult to all that they have accomplished this season.

Vegas knows what a 'popular' franchise Cowboys are and the fact that many still don't perceive the Panthers as elite has influenced this spread. Luke Kuechly is arguably the best linebacker in NFL and captains this defense remarkably well. He and the rest of the crew won't allow Darren McFadden to rush as he did easily against Miami! Even if Carolina does in fact lose this game, we believe it will be by the slimmest of margins which makes getting points extremely precious. Carolina is hands down the better team and should be at least a field goal favorite (-3) in this spot! The Cowboys need to pile up wins to keep their slim hopes alive but they will be in over their heads. Despite what should be a solid effort from Sean Lee and company, their offense won't be able to keep up unless they get some dubious pass intereference calls. Carolina and the points are where all the value is as Dallas should not be laying any points. This line is skewed because of Cowboys' previous success against the Panthers in series meetings (9-3) but those matchups have little to do with these current teams. This Carolina side is vastly improved to previous editions and they're playing with supreme confidence.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Panthers are 14-3 against teams with losing records over the last 3 seasons!
  • Cowboys have won just one of 6 games when the line was in the +3 and -3 range!
  • Panthers offense is averaging 29.9 points per game and has scored at least 20 points in every contest!
     

2) Take Texas at -1 spread against Texas Tech for 3% of the bankroll.

There is no queation that the Texas Longhorns have struggled this season. Rumors have been swirling regarding the potential departure of Head Coach Charlies Strong and with his head on the chopping block, we expect his players to step up and perfrom in this contest. The Longhorns have had some up and down perfromances this season, however they have risen to the occassion on more than one time this season on this field. They came just a point away from beating a then, red hot Cal team and then handing Oklahoma, a potential playoff team, their only loss on the season. This is a team that has talent and when motived, can be an extremely tough opponent.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have had what could be considered a successful season. Kliff Kingsbury's team looked like absolute world beaters as they opened up the season 3-0 and managed to win 5 of their first 7 games. Since then however they have dropped 3 of their last 4 and have struggled mightily on the road this season. This has also not been a matchup that has gone in Tech's favor as they have lost the last 5 meetings with Texas. They have also struggled on the road in conference play as they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 conference road games.

These two coaches have faced off twice over the last few season with Charlies Strong's team coming out on top by margina of 25 & 21 points. The Longhorns are in desperate need of a win. They are just 4-7 on the season and need this game tonihgt and a win over Baylor next week in order to make it to a Bowl Game. While their game with Baylor will be tough, the Longhorns absolutely need this victory tonight. With their head coach potentially on the chopping block and with the team in desperate need of a W on Thanksgiving, the Longhorns should have all of the motivation needed to pull off the win at home.




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