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November 18, 2015 (4:00 PM ET)

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Take Utah Jazz at -3.5 spread against Toronto Raptors for 3% of the bankroll.

We believe the Raptors will find themselves in a flat spot tonight when they travel to Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz. The Raptors gave everything they had last night in an attempt to knock off the undefeated and defending NBA champs, Golden State Warriors, but ultimately fell short! That contest not only took a toll on the players physically, but did so mentally as well. This is a team that rallied from being down 16 points at the half and mustered a tremendous comeback in the 3rd quarter to cut in the Warriors lead. The Raptors had their opportunities late in that game but were a bit unfortunate with some calls. It had to be incredibly frustrating for them to come ever so close to knocking off the Warriors, only to fall short of their goal.

The fact that they put so much effort into last night’s contest likely means that with the quick turnaround time, that they won't have much energy to expel in this contest tonight. DeRozan, Lowry and Carroll each played 39 minutes in last night’s loss while other like Scola, Valanciunas, and Joseph all logged heavy minutes as well. That will likely play a factor tonight in the thin air of Salt Lake City and we wouldn't be surprised to see fatigue set in for Toronto.

The Utah Jazz play a completely different style of basketball than that of the Warriors and it will be extremely difficult for the Raptors to adapt to the change in style with such a quick turnaround. Utah is a very physical team and plays a hard-nosed style of defense that will take a toll on the fatigued Raptors. We don't believe a player like Valaciunas will be able to match the physicality of a healthy and rested Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favor or Trevor Booker down low.

It's important to note that this is only Utah's 3rd home game this season so they will be looking to put on a show for their fans. Their victory over the Atlanta Hawks will no doubt have sparked a confidence in this team and knowing that they also competed hard against the Cleveland Cavaliers will give this young team a swagger a motivate them in this contest. This is an underrated team that is better than most of the average betting public thinks. They still have a long way to go but are starting to cement their place out West. They will also be playing with revenge in this contest as Toronto has beaten them 4 straight teams, including a sweep last season. Utah will no doubt want to show that they are a different team this season and have a chance to do that taking advantage of what will be a tired Raptors team.

The oddsmakers have listed this total at 187 points which shows that they are expecting a low scoring battle, the brand of basketball the Jazz prefer to play. It is a much lower total than Toronto normally plays and an indication of which team Vegas believes will control the tempo. While the Raptors may keep this game close in the early going, they will run out of gas in the second half when the Jazz will pull away and get the win and cover. The value is with the rested home team tonight.




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