November 17, 2015 (2:00 PM ET)
Take Minnesota Timberwolves at +9 spread against Miami Heat for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a matchup that we believe favors the underdogs. While the Timberwolves will probably be without Ricky Rubio again, we don't believe that will matter much as Zach LaVine has played very well. LaVine is averaging 21 points, four rebounds, and four assists in the four games in Rubio’s absence. In Sunday's loss against Memphis, LaVine went for 25 points in just 17 minutes on the court! Andrew Wiggins has also looked terrific in the last five games after starting the season off slowly. Wiggins is averaging 26 points on 52 percent from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns has also been a welcome addition to the roster and is an early favorite for the Rookie of the Year award as he is averaging 15.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks in the first month of his rookie season!
As a team, the Timberwolves are shooting 34 percent from downtown and are currently getting an average 44 points per game from their bench. It’s also worth mentioning that all four of their victories this year have come on the road. The T-Wolves have lost 4 straight contests and will no doubt be motivated to end their recent skid. This is an extremely young team and part of their struggles has been due to their lack of experience and their ability close out games. The ability to play a full 48 minutes is paramount in this league and while they are somewhat inexperienced, their players are extremely talented and have a ton of potential. They have shown that they can compete with the best in the league and as they gain more in-game experience, the sky is the limit for this team.
This is also a revenge game for the Wolves as back on November 5th, the Heat managed to walk into Minnesota and come away with a 96-84 victory. They would certainly like nothing more than to repay the favor down in South Beach. The fact that the Miami Heat have been off the court since last Thursday, we believe will hurt them in this contest. Such a long layoff is often detrimental to the chemistry of a team as it negates any momentum built and also forces them to become acclimated to playing at full game speed. While the extra rest will aid the healing of some nagging injuries and aches and pains, it does little elsewhere to help a team and often does more harm than good. The Heat will likely be rusty in the early going of this contest and that may be just what is needed to allow Minnesota to cover this number.
We believe the Wolves have more of a chance to cover this inflated spread than the Heat do of winning in blowout fashion! Whether it be through a shocking upset with revenge in mind, or through it being a back and forth and competitive contest to even a 'backdoor cover' to sneak within this spread, there are quite a few ways the T-Wolves can cash sharp tickets tonight. The value in this contest resides with taking the generous points.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Timberwolves are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games!
- Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
- Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
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