November 14, 2015 (11:00 AM ET)
Scroll down to review Saturday's 3 college football picks. They were released on Friday afternoon.
November has not been good so far but there is no reason it can't end up being our 8th consecutive profitable month! That is what we expect and are confident of achieving.
Looking at the even bigger picture, SPS had publicly announced its goal of 60% ROI (60 units gained) at the beginning of 2015, which would make it the most lucrative investment, and has not only achieved but surpassed that! However, we're not done yet. That's because an ambitious internal target of 100 units was also set and is entirely possible! That objective will be realized at some point between now and the end of the year and at that stage, clients that have been here since Jan 1st, will have nearly doubled their bankrolls!
Given our proven track record, there's no doubt that the final 48 days of the year will further add to profits.
Success in sports-betting is a marathon, not a sprint.
1) Take Tulsa at +18 spread against Cincinnati for 3% of the bankroll.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are coming off somewhat of a disheartening loss in their las contest as they fell to the undefeated Houston Cougars by a score a 33-30. It was a somewhat strange second half for Tommy Tuberville's team as they appeared to have all of the momentum going their way heading into the half, however an ill-advised onside kick to open the second half recovered by Houston, set the Cougars up for the go ahead score and ultimately shift all momentum their way.
The Bearcats played a very undisciplined game in that contest, getting charged with two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties (one on Tuberville for arguing), had a punt blocked, lost a fumble in the Cougars’ end zone, saw an interception get returned for a touchdown, was sacked for a safety, and got called for one personal foul. All in all the Bearcats turned the ball over three times, which ultimately sealed their fate. It's those types of mistakes that have defined the Bearcats losses this season and now that they are in the role of hefty favorites, could be the reason why it will be difficult for them to cover this large impost.
The Golden Hurricanes pose an interesting problem for the Bearcats in this matchup. Tulsa has scored between 40 and 45 points in three straight outings and they do so by keeping the ball on the ground. In last week’s win over Central Florida, they called 46 running plays while taking to the air on just 18 occasions. Ramadi Warren finished with 168 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 19 attempts. D’Angelo Brewer also ran it 19 times and turned those opportunities into 82 yards. Quarterback Dane Evans, who passed for a modest 150 yards, kept the ball five times. What's most impressive is the fact that Tulsa did all of that despite the absence of leading rusher Zack Langer. The fact that Tulsa can move the ball on the ground and pile up the yards allows the clock to keep moving which limits the number of possessions each team receives. Their ground game will also slowly wear down the Cincinnati defenders and late in the game is where the Hurricanes do most of their damage. Tulsa is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
We don't expect to see a whole lot of defense in this contest as both teams struggle to stop opposing offenses. Cincinnati is allowing 382.2 yards per game, while Tulsa is second to last in the conference, allowing 519 yards per game. We have great respect for Tommy Tuberville's team and are a big fan of Gunner Kiel. He will have a solid game today and likely lead his team to victory; however this is simply too many points to lay with a potent offense like Tulsa. Even if the Bearcats mount a big lead early, the Hurricanes should always be just a single score away from getting a backdoor cover. We don't see the Bearcats winning this one by more than 2 scores and the points should come into play.
2) Take Memphis at +7 spread against Houston U for 3% of the bankroll.
There is no doubt that recent performances by both teams have somewhat skewed the public perceptions. The Houston Cougars are undefeated this season and have the 8th ranked offense in the country behind Greg Ward Jr. They have been steamrolling the competition this season, however we believe it is just a bit too late to jump on the Houston bandwagon. The Cougars are currently being overvalued by the oddsmakers and it all started last week as we successfully backed the Cincinnati Bearcats in a similar position. Houston has played somewhat of a cupcake schedule and that is going to catch up to them in the final couple weeks of the season.
The Memphis Tigers are coming off what many consider to be a shocking loss against the Navy Midshipmen. While it was indeed unexpected, it's important to remember that Navy, with Keenan Reynolds under center is a very good and often overlooked football team. This Memphis football team is only as good as their veteran quarterback Paxton Lynch plays and Lynch had a very poor showing against the Midshipmen. We do expect a bounce back performance from him in this contest.
The Houston Cougars, for as good as they have been this season have been mediocre (at best) against the pass this season. They are ranked 107th in the country and have yet to face a passing quarterback as capable as Lynch. The Houston defense faced a similar quarterback last week in Gunner Kiel and was fortunate to escape with a 3 point victory in that contest. We are not sure they will be that lucky in this one.
The Tigers have to be fuming after seeing their BCS Bowl hopes go up in flames last week and what better way to gain a manner of revenge than would it be the ruin another teams perfect season. That is exactly the chance that they have in front of them in this contest. The pressure is certainly building on the Cougars football team. There is no doubt that the players know that they are undefeated and the goal that they are chasing. That kind of pressure can certainly wear on a tie as the end of the season approaches and this is the particular moment that we expect the Cougars to stumble. Memphis is more than capable of walking away with the outright victory and to spot this team a full touchdown is downright ludicrous. Houston will consider themselves lucky to walk out of this game with a win, as it will be the Tigers who cash the tickets at the end.
3) Take Oregon at +10 spread against Stanford for 3% of the bankroll.
The Stanford Cardinal have been one of the most dominant teams in the country this season. After losing an opening game clash against the Northwestern Wildcats, the Cardinal have rattled off 8 straight wins and 7 covers against the spread in the process. They have clearly become one of the darlings of the betting public however in this particular contest; we do believe they are overvalued.
Stanford may have won two of the last 3 meetings between these two teams, however they do find themselves in the unfamiliar role as not only the favorites, but a hefty one at that. The Oregon Ducks have no doubt regressed this season but that was undoubtedly expected after losing a Heisman winning quarterback in Marcus Mariota. A couple of losses on the Ducks resume have certainly skewed the public perception of this team, however this is still an incredibly dangerous team who we feel is catching just a few too many points in this contest.
A big reason for the Ducks struggles this season was due to an early season injury to QB Vernon Adams. Adams was sidelined with a broken finger and that severely hampered the Ducks offense. With Adams in the lineup however the Ducks are a perfect 5-0 both SU and ATS the spread this season, something that many may not realize. Adams is the key (at the moment) to this Ducks offense and makes them what we believe to be a live dog in this contest.
Stanford has struggled in seasons past containing the Ducks offense. While they have won two of the last 3 meetings, this is one of the most heated rivalries inside of the PAC-12 and has typically been a back and forth contests. The Ducks still own an extremely potent offense with Adams under center and have a Heisman caliber running back in Royce Freeman in the backfield. Last week the Ducks spotted the Cal Golden Bears 10 points early in the contest but then went on to score the next 31 which resulted in a blowout victory for the Ducks. With an offense as potent as Mark Helfrich's, it's hard to count the Ducks out of any contest.
While the Ducks defense has been something to be desired, other than their loss to Utah, they have been competitive throughout the season with their other two losses (to Michigan State & Washington State) coming by a combined 10 points. The Ducks may not get the win in this contest, but they will not be blown out and should keep this game within a single score and we wouldn't be surprised if they challenged for the outright win against their heated rivals. The points have value in this contest.
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