November 12, 2015 (2:00 PM ET)
Take New York Jets at -1 spread (buy half a point) against Buffalo Bills for 3% of the bankroll.
The NY Jets are slowly starting to prove that they are a much better team without Rex Ryan in charge. Todd Bowles has done a tremendous job of focusing his team on the task at hand rather than making sweeping statements and headline generating remarks as Ryan often did. He's cultivated their talent and clearly has them focused on playing fundamentally-sound football instead of playing up to the media. The Jets have always been a "defense first" type of team and while that has not really changed under Bowles' guidance, their offense is certainly improved. The same can't be said for Ryan's Bills. Buffalo had one of the best defenses in NFL last season and Rex Ryan was supposed to be the catalyst that makes them even more stout and feared and yet they have actually regressed in that department and rank 16th in the league.
After many seasons of dealing with poor quarterbacks, the Jets may have finally got it right with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick was not the quarterback that many expected to lead this team; however he has done a solid job and put this team in playoff contention. He's not being given enough credit this season. While many may not know this, Fitz has not thrown an interception since Oct 18th! He is nothing special but he is a vastly experience QB and one that has proven to be careful with the football. That has allowed his team to remain competitive in nearly every game this season and unless he throws more than 2 interceptions tonight, we don't see how Bills win this one. The Jets have highly talented receivers like Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker who can stretch the field, while the ground game is built to wear out opposing defenses with Chris Ivory. This is a very balanced team and one that we feel has more consistent playmakers than Buffalo.
The Jets should be motivated and looking for revenge in this contest as the Bills have managed to beat the Jets 3 straight times and all by 20+ points! It's worth remembering however that those losses came with current Bills coach, Rex Ryan at helm! We wouldn't be surprised to see the roles reversed a bit and for the Jets come away with the convincing victory. It appears that Ryan has been the common denominator in all those scenarios and Buffalo fans may end up wishing that it was last year's team that was traveling to East Rutherford tonight. We don't believe Todd Bowles will want to be shown up by his predecessor. We look for him to further stamp his authority on this squad with an important victory.
The Bill are coming off a game against another division rival in the Miami Dolphins and have a long history of struggling after playing in Miami given their 2-13 ATS mark in this situation! They have also won just once in their last 5 trips to MetLife Stadium. Coming off such a dominant win over their rivals, they could be in a letdown spot tonight. It's also important to remember that they have a revenge game on deck next when they head to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots! There is certainly no love lost between Ryan and Belichick so that is a contest that the Bills head coach is no doubt looking forward to and could be a bit of a distraction tonight. The Jets are in a much better position tonight as their sole focus is on this game. After winning but not covering in their last home game against the Jaguars, we believe they'll perform better tonight.
'Gang Green' has a message to send to Rex Ryan and the Bills and that is that they're better off without his bravado and have matured onto bigger and better things. For the Jets to only need to 'win' the game to cover the spread presents great value if their kicker doesn't let them down!
Other notable facts to consider:
- Jets are 9-0 ATS after a game in which they did not have a run for 10+ yards!
- Jets are 7-0 ATS after a home game where they had no turnovers!
- Bills are 0-6 ATS since 2012 after a game where they had a +100 yard rusher!
- Jets are a perfect 9-0 ATS after a game as a home favorite where they were outgained by their opponents!
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