November 9, 2015 (2:00 PM ET)
There are 3 picks tonight.
We are passing on Monday Night Football this week.
1) Take Detroit Pistons at +13.5 spread against Golden State Warriors for 3% of the bankroll.
There is no question that the Golden State Warriors remain the team to beat this season as they look to defend their NBA title. While the Warriors are no doubt the cream of the crop of teams in the league, the odds makers have continually set the price to back them extremely high. They are consistently listed as double digit favorites, which make the value to back them very thin. They are one of the favorites of the betting public and because of this the odds makers have the flexibility to somewhat inflate the lines even more knowing that many will still pay the high premium. We believe that is the case here.
Andre Drummond has grabbed over 20 rebounds in several games and is absolutely dominant on the boards! His size will be difficult for Golden State to deal with and may provide Pistons with second-chance opportunities. Reggie Jackson is playing with supreme confidence and was a big reason behind Detroit's massive 4th quarter rally last night. He's also got the size advantage over Steph Curry. The MVP will no doubt get his points as will the rest of the Warriors but we believe Detroit won't be blown out. They are playing good basketball and have reason to be confident. Even if Golden State does dominate however, a backdoor cover is always a possibility when a team lays this many points!
The Detroit Pistons appear to be a much improved team this year and are actually a perfect 4-0 ATS on the highway thus far this season. They are coming off what can only be considered one of the most unexpected come from behind victories on the season last night against the Portland Trail Blazers. Heading into the 4th quarter, down 10, the Pistons players rallied and put together an incredibly dominant 41-11 run in the 4th quarter to upset the Blazers enroute to a 20 point victory. You could see the determination and drive in the Pistons players grow as the quarter went on and that type of heart is something that cannot be counted out. While other teams would have accepted defeat, this team rallied and overcame and that can be incredibly dangerous, especially when spotting this team double digits.
The Pistons are a team that plays solid defense and has tremendous rebounding. It's those types of fundamentals that allow them to play closely contested games. The fact that they continue to play for the full 48 mins leaves other teams extremely susceptible to backdoor covers, especially when laying hefty points. The Pistons win last night will no doubt have sparked confidence in this team heading into their clash with the defending champs. Their late rally coupled with the motivation of playing against the perceived best team in the league should be enough to allow Detroit to stay within this hefty generous number. This is a team that also appears to be comfortable playing in Oracle Arena as they have covered the number in 5 of their last 7 minutes in this venue. The Warriors will likely get the win tonight but the cover is unlikely. All the value is with the generous points and the Pistons tonight.
2) Take Denver Nuggets (PK) against Portland Trail Blazers for 3% of the bankroll.
This is an extremely tough sport that the Portland Trail Blazers find themselves in tonight. Not only is this the second half of a back to back, but they are coming off what can only be considered as an extremely tough and deflating loss. Last night they led the Detroit Pistons at home in the Moda Center by double digits for the first three quarters of the game only to see Detroit rally and outscore the Blazers by an incredible 41-11 mark. The Blazers suffered a complete and utter meltdown on both sides of the ball and a loss like that is something that stays with players. To have another matchup on such a quick turn-around, we expect some lingering effects of last night’s contest to carry over tonight.
The Denver Nuggets have had the last couple of days to sit back and reflect on their early season struggles. Turnovers and lack of defense have been critical areas which have hurt Denver in the early part of the season and with a couple of days off to tighten up their game and make corrections, we expect to see them revitalized in this contest. Their issues are easily correctable and we expect them to play a much 'cleaner' game tonight.
The Nuggets come into this contest having dropped 4 of their last 5 games and are still winless at home on the season. The Portland Trail Blazers have been a proverbial thorn in the side of the Nuggets as they managed to sweep the season meetings last year. This is obviously not the same Blazers team as last season and with Denver looking to pick up their first win at home, that should give them the edge from a motivational standpoint. Not only that, the Blazers have won 8 straight games against the Nuggets and that can not sit well with Mark Malone or his team. It should be noted however that, this Portland roster is a vastly different looking one that beat the Nuggets last season with 4 of their starters (Aldridge, Batum, Matthews and Robin Lopez) having headed elsewhere in the off-season.
The Pepsi Center is also an extremely tough place for visiting teams to play, especially on a back to back. The air is thin in Denver and fatigue often sets in during the later stages of the game. While the home court advantage is not once it once was for the Nuggets, they do still like to play an up-tempo style offense which could force Portland to expend a lot of energy in the early part of the contest. Come late in the third and into the 4th quarters, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Blazers players starting to slow down, which will likely open the door for the Nuggets. With this game being a straight up PK, there is value in taking the home team in what should be an extremely favorable spot.
3) Take Memphis Grizzlies at +6 spread against LA Clippers for 3% of the bankroll.
It's not often that you see the Memphis Grizzlies with an under .500 record. The Grizzlies are currently 3-4 on the season but have a chance to get back to .500 with a statement win at Staples Center! And while that will be no easy task, they should at the very least be competitive which makes the points extremely precious in this spot and likely to come into play. LA captain Chris Paul was deemed 'doubtful' to play in this contest and although his status has recently changed to 'probable', he'll likely not be at his best tonight after sitting out the last game. Players are often rusty in their first game back especially when troubled with hamstring issues. Whether it's him or Austin Rivers at PG position, they'll have a tough matchup against Mike Conley tonight.
The Grizzlies are off back-to-back defeats against two teams that that they don't normally drop games against and that makes them extremely hungry and dangerous in this spot! Because unlike the Clippers, this is a team that is being written off by many way too early. Let's not forget that this is a veteran squad with players that are used to making the playoffs and are very much in their prime. This isn't a roster building for the future, their time is NOW. And yet their slow start to the year has most people doubting them. If Zach Randolph plays tonight, Blake Griffin won't be able to dominate the way he can. And even if he does, Memphis has the edge in some other positions on the court. These two teams have often played close games and with Chris Paul banged up, LA will be either without its commander or with one that is not 100%. Tony Allen and former Clipper, Matt Barnes are defensive specialists and Barnes will surely have a point to prove against the team that he was starting playoff games for last year!
The Grizzlies play Golden State next and the last thing they want to do is to limp into that matchup off 3 straight losses and short on confidence. We believe they will put out a great effort to prove doubters wrong tonight and even if they fall short, they will pick up the cover. Clippers meanwhile head to Dallas next where DeAndre Jordan and company will surely receive a hostile reception against Mark Cuban's Mavs after all the off-season shenanigans! Part of their focus will be on that game. If Jeff Green can play with confidence tonight, he can be the difference-maker for Memphis by being that offensive spark.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Grizzlies have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings against Clippers.
- LA Clippers are just 1-6 ATS at home when the total is between 195 to 199.5 points!
- Grizzlies are 73-58 as road underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points.
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