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November 6, 2015

There are 2 NBA picks tonight. Please scroll down to view them. Three Saturday picks have also been released.

Sports Profit System is now 11-4 in its last 15 football picks after last night.

SPS has profited from 8 of the first 9 Saturdays of the college football season and aims to make it 9 out of 10 tomorrow!
 

1) Take Brooklyn Nets at -3.5 spread against LA Lakers for 3% of the bankroll.

This is a battle of winless teams as the LA Lakers travel to take on the Brooklyn Nets. While both these teams are searching for their first win of the season, we believe it is the Nets who are much closer to snapping their recent losing streak and nearly did so in their last contest on the road against the Atlanta Hawks. A big reason for the Nets struggles to start the season has been their inability to consistently get offensive production enough to close out games. Their offense has shown the ability to go cold for stretches during the contest but that should not be an issue tonight against what has been an extremely porous Lakers defense.

The Los Angeles Lakers are fourth in the league in points averaging (106.8). However, the problem with this team like the past few years has been their utter lack of defense. Last season the Lakers had the second worst defense in the league, as they allowed the opposition to score 105.3 points. This season it has been worse, as they're allowing 116.8 points per contest. The Lakers are a team that likes to play with tempo and have no interest in playing defense, which has been something the Nets have not encountered this season.

This is arguably Brooklyn's best chance of picking up their first win of the season and it couldn't have come at a more opportune time. The crowd at the Barclay's Center will only be patient with their team for so long; however we expect them to motivate the Nets in this contest. Brooklyn will also be gearing up for a long upcoming road trip so picking up a much needed win in front of their home crowd could help them build momentum before taking to the road.

The Lakers have talent and scoring options, however they are an extremely young team (with the exception of Kobe Bryant), while the Nets are littered with older but experienced veterans who know what it takes to pick up wins in this league. This will likely be a closely contested game, but the a few late stops by the Lionel Hollins' team will allow them to pick up their first win and barring a late backdoor; should cover this short number. 
 

2) Take Denver Nuggets at +17.5 spread against Golden State Warriors for 3% of the bankroll.

This game may not be fun to watch for Nugget fans but it is likely to pay dividends for Denver backers against the spread. That's because Golden State, while undoubtedly the best team in the league, is laying a ridiculous amount of points in this spot! The Warriors are a public darling and for that reason, oddsmakers are inflating the spreads on purpose to deter lopsided action. It's their job to balance the books and they don't want 90% of the public backing one team. In order to do so, they've had to give visiting teams to Oracle Arena a few extra points to entice some action on them.

Michael Malone's team can cover this generous spread in a number of different ways. One would be but a shocking outright upset victory which even we don't expect to happen. Two, would be by staying competitive and within striking distance which culd happen. Last but not least, a backdoor cover is always a possibility when a team is laying this many points. That's because no matter how dominant they are, at one point, the team is gonna take its foot off the gas pedal and rest its key players to avoid injuries. That is even more likely when a team has another game tomorrow. The Warriors travel to Sleep Train Arena to take on Pacific division opponents, Sacramento Kings tomorrow night. This is the first game of a back-to-back which makes them likely to limit the minutes of Steph Curry and company once they get a healthy lead. They are likely to play the likes of Michael McAdoo and Brandon Rush in garbage time and that often allows the opponent to sneak back in for the backdoor cover.

The Nuggets on the other hand don't have a game to look ahead to tomorrow. They will want to test their skills agains the defending champions, who now have a target on their back as champions usually do. Denver doesn't play again until the 9th of November which means they have the next 2 nights off! That allows them to focus solely on this matchup and give it their all. For Golden State on the other hand, this is just another regular season game. And after blowing out rivals Memphis Grizzlies and rallying against LA Clippers, they will overlook the lowly Nuggets. Denver will be dominated for some periods of this game but they are likely to be more competitive than most anticipate and find a way to cover this generous spread. Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried are just two of the players that can do damage and are proud players that won't lie down for anyone. Denver is coming off a loss last night and will want to put on a better showing. While it won't be good enough to win this game, it should see them keep it respectable.

The absence of Steve Kerr from the sidelines means the Warriors don't always have their usual intensity for 4 full quarters. All it takes is one mediocre quarter for Denver to stay within this huge number. To ask them to win by 18 or more requires them to play their best for 48 full mintues and we just don't see that happening on the first of a back-to-back schedule against a team that is not a direct rival. This is neither a divisional game nor one that Golden State has revenge in mind for. For that reason, it matters little to them whether they win by 10-13 points or 18-20 points. Both are comfortable double-digit victories and will see them stretch their undefeated run. It is more likely that they will limit the minutes of their star players so they can continue this winning streak in Sacramento tomorrow than try to completely blowout the Nuggest.




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