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November 5, 2015

Sports Profit System has won 11 of its last 13 football picks!

There are two plays tonight.

1) Take Cleveland Browns at +11.5 spread against Cincinnati Bengals for 3% of the bankroll.

The Cincinnati Bengals are currently 7-0 on the season and one of the few undefeated teams left in the league... They are no doubt a much improved team this season however they need to be extremely careful of a potential letdown in this spot after a rare win in Pittsburgh!

This is somewhat of an interesting scenario as both of these squared off last season on Thursday Night around this time of year and it was the Cleveland Browns who walked into the Jungle and came away with a 24-3 victory over the Bengals. With McCown injured, Cleveland is making a change at QB and giving Johnny Manziel the start under center. Fans and pundits alike have been waiting for the opportunity to see what Manziel can do on the field and he adds a completely different dimension to the offense than Josh McCown.

While McCown has put up solid QB numbers this season; Johnny Football is at his best when he is improvising on the field and could provide the spark that the Browns have been missing. There is no doubt that Manizel is going to be motivated to come out and at least be competitive in this contest. He was given his shot as a starter and we don't believe he'll waste it. This is also somewhat of a revenge game for Manziel as it was the Cincinnati Bengals who were his opponents in his first start in the league and the Bengals managed to come away with a 30-0 victory out in Cleveland. We expect a much better showing from the former Heisman Trophy winner tonight.

Cincinnati is currently undefeated and is a team that has managed to cover a lot of spreads this season, so it's natural that the public is jumping all over them but they aren't paying attention to the actual number being laid as this is by far the biggest spread that Marvin Lewis' team has been asked to cover all season! The Bengals have been very small favorites in most games this season and prior to this contest, a -3.5 spread against the Kansas City Chiefs was the biggest number they had been asked to cover. Marvin Lewis is the type of coach that manages the clock well and ultimately only cares about winning ball games. Whether his team wins by 7 or 17 tonight makes little difference to him and he he shown that he can be conservative with play calling at times because of this.

A lot of people have been talking about and impressed with the Cincinnati offense, however they have had their share of issues in the red zone and finishing drives in recent weeks. Against the Steelers, they consistently went to the final 20-yards but had to settle for field goals and even had a couple of interceptions!  While they should fare better against this Browns secondary tonight, we don't believe they'll get a TD out of every trip there which is well what they may need to do to in order to cover this lofty impost.

The Cleveland Browns are not a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but they are a competitive team. They've been in every game this season win or lose including last Sunday's matchup against Arizona when they actually led comfortably at half time before being shut out in the second half. This is a team that doesn't win a lot of games but has covered spreads when getting much fewer points. That's because most of their games have been decided on the final play of the game! Now they are getting by far the most amounts of points they have been given this season and will have an even better chance to stay within this generous number.

Simply put, this is too many points for the Bengals to lay on a nationally televised setting. The value in this contest lies with the underdogs and taking the generous amount of points. When a team lays this many points, there are too many things that can go wrong trying to cover this number, even in a dominant display. A 17 point lead can quickly end in a 10 point win when the game is out of reach simply due to complacency by the defense when the game is out of reach. Cleveland can cover this spread in a number of different ways including a shocking outright win, being competitive or a backdoor cover. As for the Bengals, there is only one way that ticket can cash, and that is a complete and utter blowout! This is a game where we expect the Bengals to win but the Browns will find a way to stay with this inflated number and cash out as underdogs.

2) Take Buffalo at -2.5 spread against Kent State for 3% of the bankroll.

Buffalo and Kent State are part of a three way tie for second place in the MAC conference, so this becomes an important game for both teams. The two have suffered losses to the conference leading Bowling Green Falcons but it was in the manner in which both teams performed in their respective matchups that was telling.

There is no question that Bowling Green has been lighting up the scoreboard and rolling through conference opponents this season, mostly recently with their 62-24 blowout win over the Ohio Bobcats. Kent State suffered a similar fate last week as the Falcons went on to win in blowout fashion, 48-0. Meanwhile the Bulls were competitive in their matchup with the Falcons, holding Bowling Green to their fewest amount of points scored this season. That doesn't bode well for a Kent State team whose struggles have ultimately been on the offensive side of the ball.

Through 8 games this season, the Golden Flashes offense is only average 15 points per contest. Due to his team’s inconsistent offense, head coach Paul Haynes made a decision to make a change at the QB position and benched veteran QB Colin Reardon for George Bollas in Week 7 and we believe that was a terrible decision. Reardon had actually been performing well this season with 8 touchdowns vs only3 interceptions. Bollas was terrible in their blowout loss to Bowling Green last week throwing for only 111 yards with 2 interceptions. A loss like that is tough to shake off and we wouldn't be surprised if Bollas allows nerves to get the best of him and is a bit gun shy in this contest.

A change at QB wasn't exactly the source of the Golden Flashes issues on the offensive end. They currently don't have any running backs (or quarterbacks) that run over 4 yards per carry and their top 3 receivers only have a combined 1 touchdown between them. Truly the only thing that the Flashes have going for them in this contest is the fact that they are at home and given their paltry 4-11 ATS in their last 16 home games, we're not sure that can be considered much of an advantage.

Meanwhile, the Bulls haven't exactly been lighting the college football world on fire averaging just 28 points per game, they have shown that they have some go-to threats, unlike their counterparts. Joe Licata is a veteran QB and has thrown for 1876 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. They also have an extremely balanced running game which boasts two 500 yard rushers in Jordan Johnson and Anthone Taylor. The Bulls also have a star receiver is Ron Willoughby who leads the team with 511 yards and 5 touchdowns this season.

Buffalo is currently sitting at 4-4 this season and will likely need 3 more wins this season in order to receive an invite to a Bowl Game this season. This is a game that they must win and cannot afford to lose. Playing in Conference road games are never easy for the visiting team, however this has been an interesting series that has seen the road team go 7-2 straight up and 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. On paper the Bulls are the better team on both sides of the ball and should have no problem winning this game by at least a field goal.

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