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November 4, 2015

Take Brooklyn Nets at +8 spread (buy half a point) against Atlanta Hawks for 3% of the bankroll.

The Brooklyn Nets are winless on the season and a big reason for that has been their lack of focus on the defensive side of the ball. Brooklyn has allowed at least 100 points in the first four games of the season. The Nets are allowing opposing teams to shoot 49 percent from the field, ranking them 27th in field goal defense. They are also the second worst team in the league at defending the three-point shot (43%). While their recent statistics are currently terrible, a silver lining for this team is that it is still early in the season and we expect their defense to improve, the more time they spend on the court. Their issue on the defensive end is correctable and with the team and players hungry to pick up their first win of the season, we wouldn't be surprised to see a dramatic improvement in this contest.

On the offensive side of the ball the Nets haven't been a terrible team. They have 4 players who are currently scoring in double figures; however they have shown their propensity to go ice cold from the field at a moment’s notice. That hurt them in their last contrast as they actually held a 96-94 lead with less than 3 minutes to go over the Milwaukee Bucks, before a scoring drought over the final few possessions sealed their fate.

The Atlanta Hawks have played well to start the season, but this is not the same team that they were a year ago. There are still some kinks that this team needs to work out to become the dominant team that they were last season. Brook Lopez should be able to handle Al Horford down low and if Joe Johnson and Thaddeus Young can get some consistent production on the floor, they should be able to match up with Paul Millsap.

Atlanta is playing the better basketball at the moment, but the Nets won't continue to play as poorly as they have been forever. They are no doubt disappointed how they allowed their game against the Milwaukee Bucks to end and they should use that contest as motivation in this game against one of the better teams in the East. Atlanta is a team that seems to always find a way win, however they have now won 4 in a row and are once again in a somewhat comfortable position similar to how they were in the season opener when they overlooked Pistons and paid for it. Now going against a winless Brooklyn Nets, a team that they already handled last year, this is another game where they likely won't give 100% and make the mistake of overlooking their opponent.

The Hawks are coming off a much more important game against a direct division rival, Miami Heat last night and had to fly back to Atl so this isn't an easy scheduling spot for them. This is the second game of a back to back, so coach Budenholzer may take liberties with his lineup tonight. Let's not forget that it was the Hawks who eliminated the Nets from the postseason last year so there will be a revenge factor at play in this contest. One of the primary reasons why Atlanta has been a tough matchup for Brooklyn in the past has been because of the 3-point shooting of Kyle Korver but he's unlikely to play tonight.

This is too much of a short turnaround for Atlanta to get a blow out. It's a great opportunity for the Nets to potentially surprise everyone and pick up their first win of the season. Even if they fall short of the win, they should do enough to remain competitive in this contest and stay within this generous number. The value is with the points in this contest.




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