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November 2, 2015 (4:00 PM ET)

There are two plays tonight.

Sports Profit System has won its last 6 NFL picks and has also cashed out on 5 consecutive editions of Monday Night Football!


1) Take Philadelphia 76ers at +13 spread against Cleveland Cavaliers for 3% of the bankroll.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are once again slated as one of the favorites to contend for the NBA title again this season. With their star studded roster and another year under their belt playing together, it's reasonable to believe that they could once again make the Finals. The betting public is no doubt in love with this Cavaliers team and because of that, they will often be willing to lay whatever amount of points the odds makers favor them that and that allows Vegas to slightly inflate the asking price which we believe is the case here. Let's not forget that Cavaliers buried the public last November by going 9-20 against the spread and even though they have another year under their belts, it still take a while in the early part of the season for things to gel.

Not only are the Cavaliers one of the more "bet friendly" teams in the league, their opponents tonight are arguably one of the most "fade worthy". The Philadelphia 76ers were one of, if not the worst team in recent history and the betting public clamors at the opportunity to bet against them, often at no matter the spread. In this matchup you have one of the best team's against one of the worst in what appears to be a severe mismatch. While that will likely be the case, there are other angles in this contest that we feel are worth making note of.

The Cavaliers likely have no real motivation to blow out the 76ers in this contest. They know that they are the hands down better team so there is no reason to go out and give 100% effort. We doubt very much that we will see Matthew Dellavedova diving on the floor for loose balls in this contest. They will likely be more interested in coming out of this contest unscathed and not risk injury. Kyrie Irving is out with an injury and we don't believe David Blatt will risk the likes of LeBron James or Kevin Love in a matchup against the 76ers. We'd be surprised if they played their full allotment of minutes tonight.

The 76ers on the other hand have a lot to play for as they're still winless and were booed off the court by their own fans after the last game. This is a classic contest where motivation levels are not the same between the two sides. This game no doubt means a lot more to Brett Brown's team than to David Blatt's squad. Complacency could also be an issue for Cleveland. After an emotional win over James' former team, the Miami Heat and blowing out Grizzlies, they are no doubt looking past this Philadelphia squad. They may go into this game believing it will be a cake walk but Jahlil Okafor and the rest of these young players will want to prove they're good players.

Whether by surprising Cavs and staying competitive or through getting a backdoor cover, there is a lot that can go wrong when a team lays that many points and is expected to blow out the other squad. This isn't college football and there is no committee to impress by running up the score! This is simply one regular season game for the Cavs who have their eyes on much bigger prizes and whether they win by 7 or by 17 makes little difference to them.

Philadelphia covered 8 of 10 spreads when installed as a +12.5 or bigger underdog over the last 3 seasons and were also 10-5 ATS at home over the same time span when total was set between 190 to 195 points! It no doubt takes guts to back a team like 76ers but in this spot, it is the correct thing to do so and the play that we feel gives our clients the very best opportunity to profit. Look for the public to end up disappointed in this one as the Cavaliers win the game but fall short of covering the inflated number.
 

2) Take Carolina Panthers at -5 spread against Indianapolis Colts for 3% of the bankroll.

Something that many may not know is that the Indianapolis Colts are the only team in the league that has been outgained (yards) in every single game this season! There had long been speculation that something looked at bit "off" with QB Andrew Luck and just recently it was brought to light that the former Stanford man has been playing with broken ribs and an injured shoulder. This makes sense considering that Luck's stats have seriously regressed this season. He has already thrown 9 interceptions this season despite missing 2 games!

There have been question marks surrounding the Colts' poor offensive line all season. The O-line, even though somewhat improved has still had issues protecting its QB and tonight they will be facing arguably the best defense they have seen all season against the likes of Luke Keuchly, Thomas Davis, Josh Norman and company! The Panthers defense gives up only an average of only 18.3 points per game which ranks 6th best in the NFL.

Even with the addition of Frank Gore to the backfield, Indy is still very much a one-dimensional offense and one that prefers to attack through the air. Their tendency to abandon the ground game has allowed opposing defenses to have their way with this suspect offensive line. The weather report is forecasting rain and that could make these even more difficult for the Colts passing game. Chuck Pagano is a good coach but his days in charge of this franchise are numbered. He's under a tremendous amount of pressure and some of his players seem to want him gone. When a coach is likely to be fired, players have a way of not giving 100% and unless Colts can cause an upset here, we wouldn't be surprised to see him get fired. This type of uncertainty is never good for a squad and one of the primary reasons behind Indy's poor performances.

Unlike their counterparts, the Carolina Panthers are one of the most balanced offenses in the league. They have the ability to attack through the air but they choose to rush and pass an almost equal number of times which keeps even the best defenses (like Seattle) guessing about what their next play could be. There is no question that Indy has struggled to defend against the run and teams have been able to exploit that, so it's important to mention that Carolina leads the league in both rushing attempts (197) and rushing yards (868) this season!

Given the struggles of the Colts this season and the fact that Andrew Luck is less than 100%, coupled with how well the Carolina Panthers and Cam Newton have been playing, there is a lot of value at getting this team at home laying less than two field goals! The fact that undefeated home favorites on Monday Night football are 6-1 ATS (85.7%) in recent years seals the deal. Barring a late backdoor cover, we believe Panthers remain undefeated and cover the spread in the process. Colts were shutout at the half (27-0) by a very poor Saints defense last week and it was only then that they put together some successful drives. This is a team in disarray facing one that is well balanced but still not getting the respect it deserves.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Panthers are 10-4 ATS after a double-digit win!
  • Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
  • Ron Rivera's team is 18-8 ATS against teams with losing records.
  • Colts defense has allowed the most yards per game (408) in NFL this season!



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