November 1, 2015 (11:00 AM ET)
Four note-worthy facts:
A) Sports Profit System has now profited in 8 of the first 9 Saturdays of the NCAA football season!
B) An incredibly lucrative October increased bankrolls by 34.83%! It also marked our 7th consecutive winning month.
C) SPS has won 5 straight NFL picks and aims for one more today.
D) There is one NFL and one MLB pick today. Our quality over quantity approach has been central to our unparalleled success.
Take the UNDER 7 total runs in KC Royals vs. NY Mets for 3% of the bankroll.
A fielding error by Daniel Murphy on a routine ground ball stunned the Mets and 'Under' backers yesterday! The costly error led to a 3-run frame for the Royals as they took full advantage of Murphy's miscue. A 3-2 game that the Mets were on their way to winning was turned upside down. Not only that, it took what was a low-scoring battle 'Over' as the final score had 8 runs. Daniel Murphy would likely not repeat that mistake if it was replayed 80 more times but on this occasion, it turned a winning pick into a losing one and all but eliminated NY hopes. It'll be tough for the Mets to pick themselves up after such a late heartbreaking loss on what is a quick turnaround but they can at least count on their Ace, Matt Harvey! The Dark Knight as fans affectionately call him, will have the task of putting up zeros against this Royal lineup and we believe he'll have a quality start. He's a guy that likes to be the face of the franchise and be tasked with such responsibility and may find a way to cherish this.
Edinson Volquez who had a quality start in Game 1 will toe the rubber for the Royals. He baffled the Mets lineup in the first game and could have similar success again. The Mets will be desperate to win this game as a loss would signal the end and that extra urgency often leads to strike-outs and overswinging. Many teams are not able to stay patient and disciplined at the plate and will swing at pitches that they should ben 'taking'. Terry Collins will be demanding a fully concentrated defensive effort from his squad behind Matt Harvey tonight after last night's 2 errors. Had it been not for those fielding mistakes on what should have been routine plays, the Mets will have evened up the series 2-2. We expect to see quality plays from both defenses today and foresee both pitchers inducing ground ball double plays! Not only that, these two clubs have two of the best outfields in baseball which makes 'assists' likely as well if players stay aggressive and try to go for extra bases without the best initial jump.
Given that the first 4 games of the World Series have ALL gone 'Over', you'd have to wonder why this total is set as low as just 7 runs! Not only that, but the sharp money has come in and made the 'Under' more juiced. This is not an accident. The public loves to see high-scoring games and after getting bailed out with a couple of errors last night, they're right back at betting the 'Over'. We believe they'll be disappointed this time however as unearned runs are likely to be limited and double-plays could be increased. The two clubs have reliable arms in the bullpen that they can use when needed. Harvey and Volquez are likely to have quality starts but even if they don't, the relievers and the defenses behind them should keep this game relatively low-scoring. If this contest can avoid extra innings, we don't see more than 7 runs in it. Many have forgotten that these two teams have two of the best defenses in the Majors and got here thanks to solid pitching. We expect that to be on display today while batters may struggle with runners in scoring positions due to extra nerves of this being a potential elimination game.
Take Cincinnati Bengals at +1 spread against Pittsburgh Steelers for 3% of the bankroll.
The Cincinnati Bengals are a perfect 6-0 on the season and yet we believe the odds makers are showing them just a bit of disrespect in this contest. Yes, it appears that the Steelers will be getting back their franchise quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger and that will surely provide a boost to their offense, however the question has to be asked; exactly how healthy is Big Ben?
In his absence both Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell have been somewhat quiet and we expect them to play a much more pivotal role in the offense with Roethlisberger under center, however Ben has missed the last 4 games due to injury and we don't believe he will be 100% for this contest. A big strength of Roethlisberger's in his career has been his ability to maneuver in the pocket and extend plays. His mobility and elusiveness has been a trademark of his and if his injury is not completely healed, that aspect of his game will likely be a non-factor, especially against a Bengals defense who can supply constant pressure with their front 4. While many expect Ben's insertion back into the lineup to immediately make an impact, we believe it will likely take some time to get acclimated back into the game. Rust could be a factor and that's not something that Pittsburgh can afford to have when going up against a team looking to remain perfect on the season. Roethlisberger actually hasn't been at his best when coming off an injury in his career. He is just 2-4 in his first game back while throwing 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. His career passer rating is just 77.2 in his first game back!
This is also a series that has been somewhat one sided in recent meetings. The Steelers have managed to win 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams which no doubt has affected this line. The issue here is that neither of these teams are the same as years past so those recent trends likely don't apply. The Steelers have long been a team that has survived due to their defense and more importantly, their secondary. Troy Polamalu & Ike Taylor are both gone. The Steelers are a completely different team on defense and even have some key injuries to deal with in this contest with both Stephon Tuitt and Will Allen inactive this afternoon. Meanwhile the Cincinnati offense is clicking at the moment and has the playmakers in place to shred the depleted Steelers secondary.
Andy Dalton has really come into his own at the quarterback position and is having a career year this season. He has a plethora of weapons at his disposal with AJ Green and a healthy Tyler Eiffert. The ground game is dominated with a two-headed beast in running backs Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill. The Bengals defense has been stout up front as we had previously alluded to. They are solid against the run and their secondary has shown their ability to come up with big plays in critical points of the game. The reemergence and big play ability of Jones on special teams has often led to the Bengals being gifted with short fields which has allowed them to put points on the board. With this being such a one sided series recently, there is no doubt that the Bengals won't be overlooking their opponents in this meeting. They will be motivated to prove that they can defeat their division rivals. It was just last season where the Bengals appeared poised to take the AFC North divisional title, losing their two meetings with the Steelers negated their chance at the divisional drown. They will be motivated for retribution in this contest.
The Bengals also come into this contest off a bye week so they have not only had an extra week to practice and prepare for this big divisional contest, but they will be the much more rested team as well. It's important to note that 5-0 or greater undefeated teams playing after a bye week are an impressive 16-4 straight up in their next contest, but an even more impressive 15-5 ATS dating all the way back to 1980! This is an extremely important game for Cincinnati, not only to keep their undefeated record intact, but to finally get that signature win over their direct rivals. This game will likely be close, but the Bengals simply have too many edges in this contest. They will come up with the big plays when needed to come away with the victory.
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