Members Only

May 31, 2015 (Posted at 12:00 PM ET)

Take the UNDER 7.5 total runs in Miami Marlins vs. NY Mets risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Colon and Phelps must start for wager to have action)

The Marlins and Mets will conclude their 3 game series at Citi Field in what should be a rainy afternoon. Everyone knows that baseball is not a game that is meant to be played in the rain. Baseball is a game that requires a lot of precision. Precision for a pitcher on the mound with his delivery, precision for the battery in the box with his swing and even precision in the reaction of the infield with fielding a sharply hit ball. It's also something that affects the overall trajectory of the ball when contact is made. Ball that normally would be considered home runs will likely be slowed down by the friction that the rain will apply. Rain also likely affects the mentality of the players as well. Standing outside getting soaking wet is likely not the favorite place for these players to be and can be somewhat distracting. For batters at the plate, being distracted and not having 100% focus on the pitch that is being delivered will likely slow their reaction time and cause either off center contact or missed contact all together. This should result in a rise is both ground and fly balls as well as an increase in strikeouts for this contest, all which should contribute to this being a lower scoring game. 

The weather could also have an effect on the longevity of the contest itself. We've seen many games delayed or postponed due to the weather and have even been on the unfortunate end when a game was called after just 6 innings of play. While we can't necessarily assume that the game will end early, if it in fact does however it would likely favor this game staying Under the total. With the weather aside, there are also other strong indications that points to a lower scoring game in this contest. 

These two clubs have been playing some high-scoring games against each other in recent meetings and the Mets alone have seen 8 of their last 11 game fly over the posted Totals. When trends like that happen, the betting public naturally assumes that it will continue and that is usually not the case. It's about expecting when that trend will end and we expect that to happen this afternoon. Both pitchers are not necessarily strike-out pitchers but do know how to induce ground balls and fly-outs and use their quality defenses to garner outs.

Bartolo Colon has had success against Marlin bats in the past and one of the primary reasons behind that is that he limits walks better than most. His reluctance to allow free passes on base means damage is often limited even when he makes a mistake on the mound and players yard off of him. Colon has had some rough recent outings but is as experienced as they come and it'd be foolish to expect him to continue struggling. He's proven his doubters wrong many times in the past despite age and weight concerns and we expect him to have bounce-back performance this afternoon and limit the batters ability to plate runs. Even if he does happen to struggle in this start and is taken out of the game early, the Mets bullpen has been one of the best this season and should be able to stop the bleeding and contain the damage the Marlins bats can cause. 

David Phelps has struggled somewhat in his recent outings as well, but he does have a much better ERA at home this season than on the road. He struggled in his last outing simply because he gave up 2 home runs in a start in Pittsburgh. What is impressive however is that those were the first home runs he has given up all season long! He has been extremely careful with his pitches this season and when he has been on the mound he has made opposing teams earn their runs rather than give them up with a single swing of the bat. If he can avoid making a mistake with runners on base as he has a majority of the season, he should at least do his part to ensure that this game stays Under the total.  

We find is interesting that Vegas had set this total at only 7.5 runs despite shootout games between these two ball clubs and the fact that neither pitcher has exactly been excellent recently. We believe that is a telling sign. Yesterday's game had a strong chance to break that recent "Over" trend but turned into somewhat of a high scoring affair due to both clubs making 2 errors a piece. That is rare and not something that we expect to carry over into this game. Both coaches will no doubt demand a clean game and sound defensively fielding in this one. If both teams can limit the number of mistakes that they make this afternoon, with all the other factors at play here, we believe this will end up being a lower scoring game which should fall just Under the total.




Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.