May 29, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Picks will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on Saturday.
Take Oakland A's (-136) on the Money Line against NY Yankees risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Gray and Capuano must start for wager to have action)
This is a game that we feel is a complete pitching mismatch with Sonny Gray who leads the AL in ERA against arguably the worst starting pitcher in the American League, Chris Capuano. This is an extremely affordable price to lay with Oakland considering what a huge advantage they will have tonight on the mound. A big reason why we believe the price on the A's is reasonable at the moment is due to the fact that they have lost a lot of 1-run games this season and currently occupy the basement in the AL West. Their victory last night over the Yankees, especially in the manner in which they won, rallying from an early 3-0 deficit was a very important step for this team. It showed the players that they can in fact win these closely contested games, especially at home. This was a morale-boosting victory and will likely come into this game more confident than they have been in a long time and ride their Ace to another victory.
This is not the same Oakland A's team as years past, but they have not changed as much as much as their current record indicates. They have in fact been extremely unfortunate so far this season. The fact that they've scored 210 runs and allowed 214 shows that they are a mediocre club and not a terrible one and yet their 18-32 record doesn't necessarily reflect that since they are 3-15 in games decided by exactly 1 run! Those games could have played out much differently and if they did, the perception of this team may not be as low as it is at the moment. We feel that they are severely undervalued at the moment. Having won a close game last night, we believe it was a momentum shifter. Bob Melvin and his new hitting coach Ron Washington will urge the players to gain confidence from that morale-boosting victory.
Brett Lawrie hit a homer off CC Sabathia which turned the game around for Oakland and will use that renewed confidence and his all-action energy against a pitcher that he's a .500 hitter against. Ben Zobrist has also had success against Capuano as has had against most of the American League this season. Capuano is clearly past his prime and is only in rotation due to Chase Whitley's injury. He has not helped make a case for himself as a reliable starter as he sports an unenviable 7.36 ERA and has not lasted past 5 innings this season! He's struggled even more on the road as his ERA balloons up to an embarrassing 12.00! Opponents are batting .343 against Capuano this year and have had a .267 mark over the past decade! Meanwhile, Gray leads the American League with a stellar 1.77 ERA and he has proven to be even better at the coliseum as his ERA shrink to a miniscule 1.19!
The Yankees have some passionate fans so it's not uncommon to see odds shift in their games. It's likely their die hard and loyal fan support that is betting on them in this contest which has shifted the odds but in all actuality we believe that Gray should be at the very least a -150 if not -160 favorite in this particular matchup. To get him at a discounted price shows quite a bit of value. People will assume that because Gray lost his only other start against the Yankees this season that he will lose once again. We believe the opposite. Gray actually had a solid outing in his previous start against this team giving up just 3 earned runs but managed to strike out 7 in 6 innings of work. He's a young, up and coming pitcher who is continuously improving. We believe he will out-duel his counterpart on the mound tonight and should continue to baffle the batters with his pitches. The Yankees simply have not been playing solid baseball over the last couple of weeks. They will no doubt be desperate for a win tonight, however given the fact that they should be outclassed on the mound will be enough for the A's to put some runs on the board against Capuano and come away with the win.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Yankees are only 4-11 in their last 15 games!
- Oakland is 18-7 in their last 25 against the AL East
- Oakland has won 10 of 13 against New York over the last 3 seasons.
- Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 road games and 1-4 in Capuano's last 5 starts!
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