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May 11, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)

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Take Golden State Warriors at -4 spread against Memphis Grizzlies risking 3% of the bankroll.

The Warriors find themselves with their backs against the wall at the moment and head into game 4 tonight with the Grizzlies down 2-1 in the series. The Warriors were the odds on favorites to with the NBA championship this year and after two disappointing losses, people seemingly have already started writing this team off. The betting public are a fickle bunch and more often than not they are too quick to write teams off and jump on trends and become bandwagon followers rather than thinking ahead and seeing the much bigger picture. Let’s not forget, the Golden State Warriors were hands down the #1 team in the league. They have not lost 3 straight games all season long and we don’t believe that changes tonight. The time to back Memphis has passed. The ideal spot where they presented the most value was in Game 2 after a disappointing series opener but very few had the foresight to pull the trigger as we did. Even in Game 3, the Grizzlies presented value which we naturally took advantage of again but now that perceptions have altered, the value has shifted and it lies with the Warriors in this particular contest.

A big reason behind the Warriors' success all season has been their ability to stretch opposing defenses and hit the outside shot. In this series however they have struggled with their outside shooting going just 6 for 26 from beyond the arc in each of the last two games which we believe is an anomaly and unlikely to continue. The Grizzlies have been somewhat fortunate that the Warriors have struggled shooting the 3 ball recently, but that is not something that we expect to continue. Golden State has numerous threats on the outside and after a couple of poor shooting performances, we can’t see them continue to miss the mark. The Warriors have also missed an uncharacteristic number of shots from the charity stripe. As good as they are, Golden State is still a relatively young team trying to make a deep run in the playoffs so whether their struggles at the foul line can be attributed to nerves is a real possibility but again, for such a solid free throw shooting team, we don’t expect those struggles to continue. 

This is essentially a must win game for the Warriors and because of that we expect the best player on the team, the MVP, Steph curry to lead his team tonight. Much like LeBron James took the game over yesterday when his team needed him most, we expect curry to be the driving force of this offense tonight. Memphis is big inside and down low but we wouldn’t be surprised to see Curry keep the ball on the ground, get into the lane and create contact. As good as Gasol and Randolph has been on the glass this series, the Warriors will need to use their size against them with their much smaller lineup. Getting into the lane, creating contact and drawing the foul could get the big men in foul trouble, limiting their time on the floor. Also, if curry shows that he is a threat to take the ball inside; it will leave often collapse the defense and leave someone like Klay Thompson wide open on the wing. Golden State adjusted their offense well for Game 3, but missed a lot of wide open jumpers. Having seen what the Grizzlies had done to slow their offense in back to back games, we expect Steve Kerr to come up with a much more prepared offensive game plan to allow his players to get back into the rhythm that has made them so dangerous this season. 

While playing at FedEx Forum is no doubt a daunting task, the Warriors have had success here in the past. Back on March 27th the Warriors came into the Grind House and took care of business in blowout fashion. It won’t be easy and it will likely be a very physical and closely contested battle, but we expect the Warriors to make the critical shots late and claw their way back into the series with a win and cover tonight. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Golden State is 5-1 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last 3 seasons!
  • Golden State is 12-7 ATS when seeking revenge this season.
  • Golden State is 26-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • High scoring road teams (103+ points per game) are 86-45 since 1997 after previously trailing by 15+ points at the half!

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