May 7, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Take San Francisco Giants (-124) on the Money Line against Miami Marlins risking 3%.
(Hudson and Haren must start for wager to have action)
Both of these teams come into the opener of this 4-game series off pretty bad losses! Miami fell 7-5 to the Washington Nationals in a game that wasn’t really anywhere close as the final score indicated, while the San Francisco Giants failed to complete the sweep of their rivals the San Diego Padres losing in blowout fashion 9-1. Despite stumbling in their last outing, the defending champs have been playing pretty solid ball recently having won 6 of their last 8 games. Miami on the other hand has dropped 3 of their last 4 contests.
There are also some historical trends that we feel strongly favor the Giants as Miami is 0-7 in road games when off a road loss where they scored 5 or more runs. They are also 0-7 in their last 7 times on the road off a loss vs. an opponent off a loss themselves. Meanwhile the Giants fall into a favorable situation tonight that states home favorites that are off a home loss by 2 or more runs vs. an opponent off a road loss of 2 or more runs that had 10+ hits are 15-2 since 2008!
Comparing the side by side statistics of the starting pitchers in tonight’s contest, perception may be a bit skewed. On one hand you will see Miami’s Dan Haren with a 3-1 record, 2.70 ERS and 0.87 WHIP going against San Francisco’s Tim Hudson and his 1-2 record with a 3.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and naturally think that Haren has the advantage on the mound. Surface statistics can be often times be deceiving however. Looking deeper into actual trends and not early season statistics we see that Dan Haren has actually lost 6 of his last 7 road games in the month of May, while Tim Hudson has won his last 5 home game in the month of May dating back to 2012. Hudson has also had quite a bit of success against the Marlins in his career as his team is 20-6 lifetime when he takes the mound. He owns a very impressive 15-4 career record against them with 2.87 ERA and 1.223 WHIP! Even though on the surface it appears that Haren has the more impressive statistics at this point in the season, we do feel that Hudson has proven to be the pitcher who historically has the edge.
Another big difference in these teams and something that we feel could be a factor tonight is the production of each bullpen. San Francisco’s pen has been solid at home this season with a 2.76 ERA. They have given up only a single homerun in this park all season. Overall they have an 80% save percentage in 10 opportunities. Miami on the other hand, their pen has been somewhat of a liability for them. Their bullpen has a 0-3 record on the road with a 4.42 combined ERA. Overall they have more blown saves than wins this season and if the game is close and is decided by the bullpen, we feel that that may be just enough of an edge for San Francisco to get the win.
This game may not have had a lot of value at the opening odds, however the line has dropped since the release and we believe it has now opened up value on the home team. The defending champs are a tough group of players and we believe they will rebound off of their ugly loss and get back into the win column tonight.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Miami is 5-9 this season after a loss.
- Giants are 5-1 in May this season.
- Miami is just 3-8 when the total is 7 or less runs.
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