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March 1st 2015 (Posted at 12:00 PM ET)

Take Boston Celtics at +9 spread against Golden State Warriors risking 3% of bankroll.

The Golden State Warriors are arguably the best team in the league and they reaffirmed that again in their previous contest when they completely dominated the Raptors in Toronto! In that game, the Splash Brothers, led the team with 25 points and 22 points respectively while Draymond Green had 17. They got off to a sharp start and never looked back. They wanted to make a statement and did so when they held the Raptors to just 1 of 19 from the field in the first quarter! They held a 98-57 lead heading into the 4th quarter on their way to a 113-89 final score. 

While that win was no doubt impressive, a dominant bounce back performance was always likely given that the Warriors had dropped their prior game on national TV against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They came out extremely fired up and had a point to prove! That is no longer the case tonight and in fact fresh off a stellar performance, they may find themselves complacent and in a flat spot. The Warriors had dropped 2 of their previous 3 games heading into that game and have failed to cover spreads on the road recently. The blowout win over Toronto is still fresh in the betting public's mind. People see a performance like that, especially against an Eastern Division leader and automatically expect a repeat follow-up but that is a mistake since every game is different each situation has a unique set of circumstances.

The Celtics are not considered a good team this season but they are firmly in the playoff hunt and have been quietly playing well over the last couple of weeks. They have won seven of their last 10 overall and will be going for a fourth straight tonight! We successfully backed them on Friday night when they defeated the Hornets 106-98 despite some terrible officiating! The recent addition of Isaiah Thomas has given this offense a huge spark and transformed them into a playoff contender. Off the bench, he has added another dimension to this squad and averaged 22.5 points in his first 4 games.  Against the Hornets, he led the team with 28 points and seven assists while Avery Bradley added 19 and Jonas Jerebko had a double double! What's been most impressive about this club has been their determination which has been on full display recently. They stormed back from a double-digit deficit to rally and defeat their direct rivals, Charlotte and that extended their home winning streak to five games! They are facing an elite opponent tonight but are heading into it as a confident group, full of momentum, off a morale boosting win that gave their playoff dreams real hope.

The Warriors have been on quite a strenuous schedule as of late. They have played 9 of their last 11 games on the road and this contest will mark their third game in the 4 nights! Their road trip is nearly over but not before a visit to Brooklyn to play the Nets tomorrow. Fatigue is starting to set in and they are no doubt looking forward to going back and playing in the comforts of home. Back in January, the Celtics went into the Oracle Arena and nearly knocked off the Warriors, narrowly falling 114-111. That was a competitive game and we believe this one will be too.

Golden State will have its final game of this lengthy road trip tomorrow in Brooklyn and needs to save energy for that too! It would be easy to not give 100% against the Celtics especially since the Warriors hold such a comfortable lead in the West standings. They can afford to have an off night or not push as hard to extend a lead, which when laying this many points can allow opponents to keep games closer than they normally may. The Warriors had their bounce back performance and we don't believe they have anything left to prove by blowing out the Celtics. Even if they do gain a big lead, it is by no means a guarantee that they will cover this inflated spread at the final score as late in games, backdoor covers become a very real possibility especially if Steve Kerr decides to limit his starters' minutes in preparation for tomorrow's contest!  

The Celtics have found their offense and should be able to keep this game within single digits in front of their passionate crowd. This is a big game for them and they will be fully up for it. With the playoff spot very much up for grabs, Celtics are only a half game behind but face stiff competition from a handful of other clubs and need to continue winning to clinch a post-season ticket. Even if the they fall short tonight, we expect them to put in the kind of effort that they did on Friday and that should allow them to keep this game close. Take the generous points. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Boston is 8-2 ATS when the total has been 210 or greater this season!
  • Golden State has lost 5 of its last 6 visits to Boston.
  • Boston is 7-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive games have gone 'Over' this season!
  • Golden State is just 1-5 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with losing records.

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