June 30, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Take Baltimore Orioles (-142) on the Money Line against Texas Rangers risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Gonzalez and Lewis must start for wager to have action)
Last night the Rangers shocked the Orioles and came away with an 8-1 win! It was a surprising result given how the Orioles had dominated this series in the past. Despite last night's defeat, Baltimore is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings and 6-1 in the last 7 played at Camden Yards! The O's are a team that has had a lot of success at home which is evident by their 27-15 home record this season, but historically they have proven to be nearly unbeatable at home in the month of June and came into last night’s contest with an impressive 10-1 record at home this month. Buck Showalter's team has historically fared well after a loss this season and given how ugly last night's defeat was, we have no doubt that they will be motivated to come out in their last home game of the month and make a strong statement.
Despite last night's win, the Rangers haven't exactly been playing great baseball recently. They have still won just 2 of their last 9 games and have scored just 3 or less runs in 6 of their last 9 games. We don't expect their offensive struggles to get much better tonight as they will face Miguel Gonzales who has been excellent at home with a 4-0 record and a 1.89 ERA. What has been even more impressive is the fact that he has held opponents to a .186 average. It's been a while since he's seen this Rangers lineup, but the last time he did he was impressive limiting Texas to just a run over 6 2-3 innings in each of two victories. A lot has been made about Josh Hamilton returning to the lineup tonight, but we actually feel that will be more helpful to Baltimore than it will be to Texas as Hamilton is just 1 for 11 with five strikeouts against Gonzalez in his career. Both Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre have struggled in their careers against Gonzalez so it will be interesting to see where the Rangers expect to get their offense from tonight.
For the Rangers they will send Colby Lewis to the mound tonight. Lewis has not fared well against the Orioles in his career. In fact this is a team that he has struggled mightily against. Lewis has gone just 1-4 with a 6.35 ERA in 8 career games vs the O's in his career while at Camden Yards he is 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA. While many Rangers have struggled against Gonzalez, it's clear to see that Baltimore has had quite a bit of success against Lewis. Chris Davis and JJ Hardy are just two O's who've hit Lewis hard in the past. With Manny Machado currently swinging a hot bat and the recent return of Adam Jones to the lineup, this is a team that has a lot of confidence and swagger at the moment and we expect them to take their frustrations from last night's contest out on Lewis tonight.
The Orioles are currently in a tie for first place with the New York Yankees and we can't see them allowing the Texas Rangers to drop them into second place. Baltimore ranks 3rd in the league in scoring, averaging 4.59 runs per game and with their offense being silenced last night, we expect them to wake up for this contest tonight. Prior to last night's offensive dud, the O's had scored 24 runs in their previous 4 games so we expect that the offense won't stay silenced for long. It's tough to believe that Baltimore will drop two straight at home given how well they have played in Camden Yards not only this month, but this season as a whole. The Orioles are the all-around better team, with the better pitcher on the mound and are coming off a loss. All signs point to an O's victory tonight.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Orioles are 26-10 in Gonzalez's last 36 home starts.
- Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 43-17 in their last 60 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
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