June 24, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
NOTE: Picks will be posted at noon (12:00 PM ET) tomorrow due to the large number of afternoon games.
Take the UNDER 11 total runs in Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Webster and Hale must start for wager to have action)
We've said in the past that sports betting is all about situational awareness and knowing when to follow trends and when to go against them. The betting public rarely knows when the right time to do each is and we believe this matchup is a prime example of that.
The Colorado Rockies and Coors Field are synonymous with high scoring games. You rarely ever see a game listed below 10 total runs played at Coors Field and the betting public is eager to blindly bet the Over in anticipation of a high scoring event. Add in the fact now that another high scoring offense, the Arizona Diamondbacks come to town and the odds makers adjust the line up just a little bit more. People are still blindly betting the Over and expecting both offenses to steal the show tonight, but we believe they will be sadly mistaken.
Looking at the numbers in this matchup we have a Rockies team that has eclipsed the Total in 8 out of their last 9 games, going against an Arizona squad whose games have gone 'Over' 3 straight games. It would be easy to assume that these two teams combined will produce a high scoring affair. Loosing at the starting pitchers for both sides, neither one has been overly impressive and actually have some borderline poor ERA's this season. It would be natural to assume that both pitchers will continue to struggle while the opposing offenses absolutely does damage on them tonight. Add in the fact that 5 of the 6 meeting between these two teams already this season have produced scores that have gone Over the total and one would have a compelling case to once again expect a high scoring game while easily cashing in on the Over. That is where we believe many are mistaken.
We have long said that there are no such things as gifts in the world of sports betting and that if something seems too easy; it often is. If siding with a play that has as many compelling arguments as the Over in this game is all it takes to win, then everyone in the sports betting industry would be profitable. Sadly, that is simply not the case. Our experience has taught us that when there are these many "in your face" statistics that point to one side or the other, that things are rarely as easy as they appear. We've learned to look deeper into the particular matchup to find some things that the average bettor may cast aside and not be concerned with. What we found is precisely the reason why we believe this game will stay Under tonight.
Both defenses have solid infields, which has largely been underrated this season. On the year the Colorado Rockies have turned 73 double-plays while the Diamondbacks are just behind them with 66. This could prove to be extremely significant in this matchup tonight. We all know that both teams have the potential to hit the ball well, but these defenses have also proven capable of rewarding the pitcher with a 2 for 1 (2 outs for allowing a single baserunner). Even just a couple of double plays tonight could be what helps keep this game Under. Both teams also rank among tops in the league in assists with the Rockies come in 2nd with 790 on the season. Neither club also has that many lefties or switch-hitters in their lineup. 7 out of 9 players for both clubs are righties and with both pitchers being right-handed, they're often given more trouble by left handed or switch-hitters but there aren't many of those in tonight's contest. It's these discreet facts and tidbits that the average sports bettor is ignoring and has no idea about, but its these kinds of statistics that we feel mean more in this particular game and is more likely to cause this game to stay Under than go 'Over' this high total.
Colorado had 11 hits and left only 2 runner stranded on base last night! That's incredible and certainly not something that we expect to happen on a nightly basis. We expect the Rockies to not be near as efficient tonight and leave plenty more runners on base in this one. If we can avoid those costly fielding errors that put runners either on base or brings them home, we expect this game to end with a combined 9 or 10 total run. It is important however to get the total at 11 runs in this contest so that a push is a possibility if the game happens to end up being 5-5 late in the game.
Neither team has had much experience against the opposing pitchers tonight so that could potentially keep the offenses quiet in the early going. We believe both pitchers and both defenses tonight will step up to keep the other's offense in check and at the same time bury all of the people blindly betting on the Over. This game should stay under if no silly fielding errors are committed.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Both clubs are among the best at generating double plays.
- 7 of 10 Arizona games have gone 'Under' as small road underdogs this season!
- The Under is 10-5 over the last 3 seasons after Arizona allowed 10 or more runs in the previous game!
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