June 22, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
After 6 straight winning weeks including two extremely lucrative ones, we finally had a small (1.86 units) losing week.
SPS lost back to back games for the first time in a month but we still top all baseball charts in both profit and overall record!
Take Tampa Bay Rays (-120) on the Money Line against Toronto Blue Jays risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Andriese and Hutchison must start for wager to have action)
This is a matchup in which believe the Tampa Bay Rays will have a distinct pitching advantage tonight. Drew Hutchison will take the mound tonight and he has struggled against the Rays in his career. He has an ERA of 6.31 and a WHIP of 1.676 in 5 career appearances against Tampa. Despite his flashy 6-1 record, Hutchison has not pitched nearly as well as his record suggest. He has a seasonal ERA of 5.33 which shows that despite some lackluster appearances on the mound, he has been fortunate to have been bailed out by his powerful offense. On the road, he has fared even worse. In 7 starts on the highway, his ERA balloons up to an even more unimpressive 9.47 this season!
The Jays could find themselves in a bit of trouble is Hutchison doesn't have a quality start tonight because their bullpen comes into this contest a bit fatigued. Blue Jays manager John Gibbons had to go to his bullpen early in yesterday matchup, pulling his starting pitcher Copeland in less than 2 innings or work! Gibbons used 8 different pitchers to get through yesterday’s slugfest so he likely won't have any fresh arms to work with should Hutchison struggle tonight.
Matt Andriese doesn't have the type of experience that Hutchison has, however he has been easing into the starting role quite nicely and put together a quality outing in his last start against the Chicago White Sox. In that game he went just under 6 innings giving up 6 hits, 0 earned runs while striking out 5. The more experience he gets on the mound the more comfortable we believe he will become. While the Blue Jays offense can be explosive at times, they have had quite a bit more success against left handed pitching this season than right. The Toronto bats have only seen Andriese very briefly or not at all and in the lone appearance he has against them, he had quite a bit of success, giving up just 5 hits and 2 earned runs in 4 innings of work.
While we believe Andriese should outpitch Hutchison tonight, the Tampa Bay bullpen should also have an advantage in the later stages of this game. As we stated earlier, Toronto's pen should come into this game fatigued, which opens themselves up for runs to be scored late. Rays have one of the best set of relievers in the league and Boxberger, Belissario and McGee got the day off yesterday and will be ready to close this game out given the opportunity. Tampa has 32 saves on the season which is 7 more than second ranked team in AL so they have been lights out when closing out games this season!
The Blue Jays should also come into this contest a bit deflated after a back and forth slugfest with the Orioles yesterday. Toronto went down on the scoreboard early but managed to rally back and even take the lead only to see it slip away from them in extra innings. Gibbons put everything into getting the win yesterday and for him and his players to come up short, is an extremely disheartening loss. Against a team that has been as hot as the Rays, which could be a recipe for disaster tonight. Tampa has taken 7 of the last 8 meetings with the Blue Jays and has given up just a single run in each of their last 3 games. The Blue Jays will also be without the services of Josh Donaldson tonight which takes a big bat out of their lineup.
The Rays come into this contest having won 8 of their last 10 and yet tonight we catch them in a bounce back situation since they are coming off a 1-0 loss. Having not only lost but also having been shut-out in that contest, we expect that they will be motivated against a direct AL East rival tonight. With the Yankees currently 1 game back of Tampa and the Orioles and Jays breathing down their necks as well, the Rays know that they need to continue winning to create some much needed separation in the ultra-competitive AL East.
As good as Toronto has been on the offensive end, they are a team that has been extremely poor defensively. They have allowed 315 runs which shows what a poor defensive club they are and is the 2nd worst in American League! Tampa meanwhile is the exact opposite and has been a stellar defensive club ranking 2nd best in AL having allowed only 245 runs on the season. Toronto has also been a mediocre team away from the Rogers Center this season having gone just 14-20 on the road this season. Given all of the situation that we feel will affect the Blue Jays in this contest, the Rays have a great chance to come away with the win tonight and at this price are showing exceptional value.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Tampa is 14-6 in the month of June.
- Toronto has lost 7 of the last 8 games against Tampa Bay!
- Tampa is 17-8 against teams with a winning record this season!
- Toronto is just 1-4 when listed as an underdog of +100 to +125 this season.
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