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June 18, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)

Tonight's pick is a below average 2 unit wager meaning we are risking 2% of our bankroll on it.
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Take Milwaukee Brewers as underdogs (+140) on the Money Line against KC Royals risking 2%.
(Nelson and Guthrie must start for wager to have action)

The Kansas City Royals are no longer the under-rated ball club that they were last season. By now everyone knows how great of a team they are and expectations are high on a nightly basis. Tonight's matchup pits the best team in the American League squaring off against arguably the worst in the National League and there is no doubt that has had an immediate impact on the betting public. The Brewers come into this game having lost 5 straight games including the first 3 games of this series so the average sports bettor is naturally assuming that the Royals will win this game tonight and complete the 4 game sweep. Because of this skewed perception, we believe it has opned up quite a bit of value on Milwaukee tonight. 

Having already scored 25 total runs in this series thus far, we believe the Royals will likely find themselves in a flat spot tonight. At this point in the series, all of the pressure is on them as well since no one expects very much from the lowly Brew Crew at the moment. After winning the first 3 games of this series rather easily, it wouldn't be surprising to see Kansas City players take the night off and not give 100% in this game. The Brewers are not a direct rival and the Royals essentially have nothing to gain from a win here tonight, so what exactly is their motivation for beating a team they have already beaten easily three straight times? If there is a night for them to take their foot off the gas pedal just a bit (mentally), it is tonight.

For the Brewers however, they have quite a bit of motivation heading into this contest. They will no doubt be looking to turn things around and end their 5 game losing streak but they will also be looking to at least salvage one game of this series and not allow themselves to be swept. No team likes to be dominated and we believe Milwaukee will do everything they can to ensure that doesn't happen tonight. There is a skewed perception of the public who are expecting another Royals blowout win and we don't necessarily believe that will happen. Even if Brewers do end up losing this contest, we believe it'll be closer than many think which shows value on the underdog.

In a battle between starting pitchers tonight, its actually been Milwaukee pitcher Jimmy Nelson who has had the statistically better overall season thus far however overall records of both pitchers have somewhat skewed the public's perception. Nelson has an unimpressive 3-7 overall record compared to the veteran Jeremy Guthrie’s 4-4 record. We actually wouldn't be surprised if Nelson improves to 4-7 tonight while Guthrie takes the loss and ends up at 4-5. It's been nearly a month since Jeremy Guthrie won a game and he could have a tough time getting the win tonight. Former Blue Jay southpaw, Adam Lind has absolutely been a nightmare for Jeremy Guthrie in his career and is featured in tonight's lineup. Lind is batting .362 in his career against Guthrie! Ryan Braun is also quietly heating up again and having a good season with 13 homers and 41 RBI's this year for the former MVP. The Brewers as a whole have 22 hits in 72 at-bats against the veteran righty. He's been able to get out of those jams in the past and limit damage but we don't expect his good fortunes to continue tonight.

Meanwhile the Kansas City bats have rarely had an opportunity to see Jimmy Nelson on the mound. As it is with a lot of new pitchers on the mound, it will likely take the Royals batting lineup a few at bats to become comfortable with the wind up and delivery of Nelson's pitches. That could give the Brewers an opportunity to capitalize by getting to Guthrie early in the game. It's also worth noting that the Brewers are actually one of the few clubs that has played better on the road than at home this season. The Milwaukee bullpen has also been better away from home and is 7 out of 7 in save situations largely thanks to the experience of Francisco Rodriguez. If Milwaukee can find themselves with a lead late in the game, their bullpen should have a great chance at closing things out. 

The Royals are a great ball club but every team has an off night once in a while and can't be expected to simply crush the competition in each and every game! At this point, no one wants to back the lowly Brewers and we rarely do so ourselves but this is a spot where we believe they are live underdogs and yet the odds doesn't reflect that. This is a game that the Brewers could win and where the small risk is worth the higher payout.

Two other notable facts to consider:

  • Brewers have won 4 out of 5 on the road when the total was set at 8 or 8.5 runs!
  • Of the 10 homers Jimmy Nelson has given up this season, only 1 has been on the road.



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