June 15, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Take the UNDER 7.5 total runs in NY Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Syndergaard and Buehrle must start for wager to have action)
The Blue Jays and Mets open up their series from Citi Field tonight. With this being an inter-league matchup, this contest will be played under National League rules which means there will be no designated hitter (DH) in the lineup and opposing pitchers must each take a turn to bat. That fact alone can have an interesting effect on teams from the American League as their pitcher is not usually accustomed to having a bat in his hands and stepping to the plate. For an offense such as Toronto's, that takes a very big bat out of their lineup and could certainly have an effect on how many runs they are able to plate tonight.
There is no doubt that Toronto has one of the league’s best offenses this season. They are explosive and as we saw in their series with the Boston Red Sox, they are a team that is capable of piling runs on in a hurry. Because of this the casual sports bettor is blindly betting on each Toronto game playing Over the total, simply because this lineup the "potential" to score as many runs as a team by themselves. While that is certainly true, that is not the case on each given night. They will have nights where their offense simply does not click and we expect tonight to be one of them.
The same goes for the NY Mets. Recently New York has been playing in some high scoring games, including yesterday where their offense went off , plating 10 runs against the Atlanta Braves. The Mets are another team that has the potential to plate an above average amount of runs in a game. However they are also a team that we have seen where their offense has gone completely cold in a moment’s notice and tonight may in fact be another one of those nights. Players such as Curtis Granderson, John Mayberry and Ruben Tejada have struggled in their careers against veteran lefty Mark Buehrle. Their numbers are extremely poor having combined for just 9 hits in 50 plate appearances against him! They are batting just a combined .175 lifetime against him with 10 strikeouts! While many only look at the final box score and see a large number of runs scored at the end, it’s worth mentioning that a lot of runs by both of these teams recently have been due to costly errors! Errors have kept innings alive and have allowed both teams an opportunity to continue scoring when arguably the opposing pitcher should have been out of a jam. We don’t expect to see those errors continue to pile up resulting in extra runs tonight.
We also believe that the total in this contest speaks volumes about how the oddsmakers expect this game to play out. The fact that the last 5 New York games have gone 'over' and now they are playing the most explosive offense in the league makes the casual sports bettor feel that both of these teams should combine to score 9+ runs in this contest and thus getting 7.5 is a steal. That is where we believe they are mistaken and will be disappointed. The last time the Blue Jays saw a total that was listed at 7.5 was their last loss prior to their current 11-game winning streak. That total was listed at 7.5 in that matchup and the Jays ended up losing 0-2 with the total going Under. Since that loss however, Toronto's games have had an average total of 9.4 runs! Out of those 11 games only 2 have managed to go 'under'. For Vegas to now suddenly list this matchup at just 7.5 runs even though they know most of their risk will be on the 'over' as the public will be on that, says a lot!
Toronto scored 13 runs yesterday while the Mets managed 10 of their own! That is one of the reasons, perceptions have been skewed. People are expecting another shootout but the circumstances around this game is different than the division contests that were just played out. There is also a 60% chance of rain in the forecast which could limit some of the balls that would normally be home runs in perfect weather to be kept inside the park due to the precipitation. There's also the added possibility of the game finishing early if the game can not continue. If this game avoids extra innings, we believe it is likely to have a 4-2 type final score which lands 'under' the set number.
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