June 14, 2015 (Posted at 12:00 PM ET)
Sports Profit System has now won 20 of its last 28 picks.
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Take the OVER 195 total points in Cavaliers vs. Warriors risking 3% of the bankroll.
The series is tied at two games apiece which makes Game 5 extremely pivotal for both teams. The winner will put themselves in the driver’s seat in their questor the NBA Finals Title; because of that we are expecting an all-out effort by both teams tonight and predict that offense will finally be the driving force, in what has up until now, been a very defensive minded series.
With this being the 5th meeting of this series and their 7th this season overall, these two franchises have certainly had plenty of opportunities to analyze the different looks that their opponents have given them and thus have gotten more comfortable with each passing game. This is the NBA Finals and it would be fair to say that nerves, apprehensions and cautious game planning all played a part in the early games of this series. We can see that both teams looked rather out of sorts at times compared to the dominating forces that each were in their conferences during the regular season. We expect that to change tonight. Adjustments have been made and this is when both offenses are likely to find success.
The two regular season meetings between these two teams, when both were playing at their peaks, resulted in totals well into the 200s and rightfully so. Both of these offenses are explosive, but both have also been rather tentative at times and defense has been the dominating factor. Given how the series has played out thus far, the betting public is expecting yet another game dominated by the defenses of both sides. We don't feel that will be the case. The betting public is a very "reactionary" bunch and waits for the result of the games to play out. They then believe that things will play out similarly in the following contest, which is rarely the case. Looking at the first 4 games of this series, the betting public was expecting high scoring contests and had been pounding the 'over'. Now that the last few games have gone "Under" in this series, they are now switching stances and jumping on the bandwagon. We believe they are now a step behind. Quality coaching is all about making adjustments and finding out what works and what doesn't. Both coaches have proven to be at the top of their game this season and we expect both to go back to what has worked for them thus far in this series.
We expect Steve Kerr to stick with the smaller lineup. That formation has worked for the Warriors and has helped re-ignite their offense, which for a time, had been missing in certain games. By going with a smaller lineup and taking Andrew Bogut, their true rim protector, out of the game it has hurt the Warriors defense but has also aided in their offense and their ability to put points on the board. This should result in more baskets on both ends of the court helping to push the final score Over the total. With 5 quicker, smaller players on the floor we should see a faster paced tempo which could result in more fast break points than we have seen thus far this series.
For David Blatt, has gone an admirable job keeping his team right in the thick of this series despite some injuries to key players. Despite this series being tied, the Cleveland Cavaliers haven't exactly been shooting the ball great. The Cavaliers shot just 33% from the field in Game 4 and just 32% in Game 2! Those aren't just poor shooting nights, those are downright ugly! The Cavs offense is much more capable than what we have seen thus far and after the performance that they put in in Game 4, we expect a lot to change offensively in this contest. LeBron James has taken over a bulk of the ball handling duties, which we feel is a mistake. The Warriors would simply rush out to the perimeter and double, sometimes triple team him there and force the ball out of his hands. They spent a bulk of their possessions trying to feed the ball to Mozgov in the post. That didn't work. James needs to be the engine but he can't have the ball in his hands from start to finish. He's at his best when he is fed the ball at or near the post and has the option to drive, back down or kick the ball out to the perimeter. That's the formula that worked in Games 2 & 3 and David Blatt could go back to that tonight.
Cleveland will also need to get more contributions from their outside shooters, namely JR Smith and Iman Shumpert. Cleveland only managed to hit 4 three pointers last game which is about 5 short of their season average. We don't expect that to be the case again tonight. As for Golden State, we expect their shooting to rise tonight as well. We have yet to see the Splash Brothers, Thompson and Curry show up on the same night. Throughout this series it has been alternating performances where Thompson will have a strong performance but Curry will have struggled and vice versa, that was never really the case during the regular season. These are two of the best pure-shooters in the league and we have seen multiple times where both go off for 25+ points in a single game hitting 3 pointer after three-pointer. That hasn't happened thus far in this series but we expect that to change. In such an important game tonight, we'd be surprised to see one or the other struggle.
Both teams have had 2 days of rest heading into this contest and we expect both to come out with lots of energy looking to establish themselves. We have seen this series where things have been somewhat "contagious", meaning that when one team has been hitting shots, the other has been able to answer. On the same token, when teams have missed and their defense has stepped up, the same happens on the other end. If both teams come out of the gate fast tonight, this should turn into somewhat of a shootout which should help this total go 'over'.
Part of being a great professional handicapper is knowing when to overlook past trends and be able to look forward at the bigger picture. We feel that a majority of things will resort back to the mean tonight and be more in line to what we have been accustomed to seeing from both of these teams this season. This should arguably be the most complete effort from both sides tonight and we expect this number to likely combine closer to the 200 point mark tonight. After so many defensive battles this series, we expect the offenses and in particular capable shooters like Klay Thompson and JR Smith to show up tonight. This contest should have a 103-96 type final score.
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