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June 12, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)

Picks will be posted at 3:00 PM ET on Saturday.
 

Take Detroit Tigers (-111) on the Money Line against Cleveland Indians risking 3% of bankroll.
(Price and Salazar must start for wager to have action)

This is an interesting matchup between AL Central division rivals who are no strangers to each other. The Tigers have already beaten the Tribe 5 out of 6 times this season and have dominated them at this ball park. They are currently only 15-16 at home however this season and this is a great opportunity for them to pull back to .500 at Comerica Park. Danny Salazar has thus far put together a solid start to the season with what appears to be a very impressive 6-1 and that is precisely the reason why we believe the odds are inflated on Cleveland tonight. Salazar managed to surprise the Tigers last time he faced back in April and was very effective against what has been an extremely explosive lineup. Having seen him this season already this season we expect the Detroit bats to fare much better against him tonight.  

Meanwhile the Cleveland bats have seen David Price many times in their careers but they still can't seem to figure him out. Catcher Yan Gomes is hitless in 9 at-bats against David Price while both Michael Bourn and Jason Kipnis have gone just a combined 6 for 31 against Price in their careers. Price has the type of pitches that can freeze batters at the plate. He's 7-1 in his career against the Indians with a very respectable 2.40 ERA. When he has toed the rubber, his team is 8-2 lifetime against the Tribe. His record against this ball club undoubtedly speaks for itself. The Tribe's batting order is also predominately made up of left handed hitters which should favor the southpaw Price on the mound tonight. 

Even if for some reason Price does not have his usual stuff on the mound tonight, the Tigers bullpen is fresh and ready to be called into action after having yesterday off. Brad Ausmus and his entire squad needed a day of rest to regroup after an ugly loss to the Cubs and that's exactly what they got. Detroit is coming off of a defeat and at the moment is smack in the middle of a tight division, they can not be content with their position. They had come into the season expecting to dominate as they had in years past. Having won only 3 of their last 10 games, this is no longer a roster that feels complacent. They need to start putting together a winning streak and build some momentum heading into the All-Star break next month and we believe it starts tonight against their division rival. Detroit is already 4.5 games behind Royals and can't afford to slip up any more. With Royals playing a tough game in St. Louis tonight, this is a great chance for them to close the gap if they can pull out a victory. 

Also, for as good as David Price has been, he also hasn’t always gotten the run support he needed despite stellar pitching. His teammates know they've let him down in the past and will be no doubt be looking to reward him for the performances that he has put in this season. Meanwhile, the opposite has been true for Danny Salazar. He has greatly benefited from receiving the support of his offense even when he has had less than stellar performances. He is talented but he does still makes mistakes and has a lot to learn before he's on the same level as an established Ace as Price. The Cleveland bats won't be there every time to bail him out and this pitching duel could likely come down to which pitcher makes fewer mistakes. 

Unlike the Indians lineup who has struggled in the past against Price, several Tiger bats have had good success against Salazar, including some of their bigger bats in Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler and even Nick Castellanos have all hit him hard. One of the few Tigers that has struggled against him is JD Martinez but he won't be playing tonight. This Detroit lineup is a potent one because they have a great mix of both power and speed. Tonight both Rajai Davis and Anthony Gose will provide plenty of speed at Comerica Park while guys like Cespedes and Cabrera will undoubtedly provide the power. Both players have the ability to change the course of the game with a single swing of the bat. If Salazar makes a mistake and leaves a ball hanging over the plate against either of these bats, it will likely be a costly one and could ultimately decide the game. 

Detroit has owned Cleveland in recent meeting going 5-1 already this season and an impressive 33-13 over the last 3 years! With their Ace David Price on the mound tonight, these odds are simply too good to pass up on.This should be a close and entertaining affair but at this low price, all the value is on the ambitious home side and we expect them to clinch victory. The odds should be -135 in our opinion.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Detroit is 20-11 against division opponents!
  • Detroit is 25-15 after a day off over the last 3 seasons.
  • Cleveland is just 8-14 against teams with winning records.
  • Detroit leads the American league with a .274 batting average!



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