June 10, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Take the UNDER 7.5 total runs in San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves risking 3% of bankroll.
(Ross and Perez must start for wager to have action)
Both of these clubs head into this contest having played in some high scoring games as of late. In fact 20 of the last 26 games combined between these two franchises have managed to go 'Over' the set number! That is an extremely unusual trend and one that the betting public has no doubt taken notice of. Being simple-minded and unaware of the adjustments that Vegas makes, It is their belief that this pattern will simply continue and a play on the Over should be an easy winner tonight. We tend to disagree and don't believe that will be the case. The first two meetings in this series may have gone over; however Game 1 only did that because the game went to extra innings on an unearned run that was caused by an error. The Braves actually rank 3rd in the National League in Defensive Efficiency Ratio and rarely commit fielding errors so to see them play as carelessly as they have recently is surprising and not something that we see continuing. We expect a much cleaner game from both defenses tonight which means the two clubs will have to earn the runs that they score. That may be hard to come by against these two under-rated pitchers.
Tyson Ross is having another consistent season and has proven to be incredibly tough on the mound. His pitching numbers are respectable in nearly every category. What has been most impressive about him this season has been his ability to keep balls inside the park. He has only given up 3 home runs on the season and often limits damage even when he finds himself in a jam. He's had prior success against the Braves and we believe they will have a difficult time getting to him tonight. Especially since they currently rank 14th out of 15 NL teams in hitting home runs!
Williams Perez will counter and take the hill for Atlanta tonight. He's made some relief appearances this season but since being placed in the starting role, he has performed admirably. In 4 starts this season he's 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA. Like his counterpart Ross, he has done a good job of limiting opponents’ dingers having allowed just 2 homers so far this season. The Padres lineup has never faced him before and that should give him an advantage the first couple of times through the order.
Neither lineup has much experience against the opposing pitcher which should make things interesting. We've seen numerous times already this season how it can take a lineup an at-bat or two to become comfortable at the plate with the wind up and delivery of a certain pitcher. Given that both of these hurlers have pretty good stuff off the mound, it could leave both lineups baffled in the box. Another fact worth knowing is that catcher Austin Hedges is starting behind home plate for the Padres tonight instead of Derek Norris. That takes a big bat out of the San Diego lineup which should also help limit runs. While most games between these teams have been offensive shootouts, we expect this one to be more of a pitching duel. This game will likely come down to which pitcher makes the least amount of mistakes and which team can get those critical hits when needed. This contest is likely to have a 4-2 type final score and cash 'Under' tickets for sharps while disappointing the masses who are blindly following recent patterns.
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