June 6, 2015 (Posted at 3:00 PM ET)
Sunday's picks will be posted at noon (12:00 PM ET).
Take Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) on the Money Line against NY Mets risking 3% of bankroll.
(Anderson and Colon must start for wager to have action)
The Diamondbacks are a team that has somewhat flew under the radar this season but one that we feel is better than they're viewed. Despite their current below average overall record, the D-Backs own one of the most capable offenses in the league. The fact that they have scored 259 runs shows just how capable they are and means they rank #1 in scoring in the National League! They also currently rank 1st in the league in hits, averaging about 9.6 per game and when that is coupled with the fact that they have already stolen 52 bases this season makes them incredibly dangerous! They are also among the league leaders in batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS.
Despite the top notch offense, a big reason behind some of their early season struggles was due to their pitching. For this particular matchup however, even though pitching has not been their strong suit thus far, they should have the edge on the mound. Chase Anderson will get the start for Arizona tonight and not many NY bats have seen him pitch. Michael Cuddyer has the most at-bats against Anderson on this team but even he has only seen him 6 times and has batted just .167 against him. Anderson may not be a household name but he has actually been Arizona's most consistent starter thus far this season and even after a rare bad outing last time, he still has a respectable 3.26 ERA!
Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon will get the start for the Mets and we believe he is currently being given too much credit due to his skewed 8-3 win loss record. We say skewed because he has not pitched anywhere near good enough to deserve such a mark! He has been fortunate that his team has backed him big so far and provided a lot of run support in his starts. Colon has an ERA of nearly 5.00, and if he continues to struggle on the mound against an offense as capable as the D-Backs, it will be difficult for the bats to continue to bail him out.
Several Arizona bats have seen Colon before and Cliff Pennington in particular has hit him hard going 4 for 9 in his career! Aaron Hill, Jordan Pacheco and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia have also had success against the veteran righty. The public may be eager to back Colon given his shiny 8-3 record but we believe it is Anderson that is more likely to produce a quality start.
It's also worth noting that Colon, being a 41 year old veteran, has ample experience at nearly every ball club in the Majors but not at Chase Field. This is only the second time in his 18-year career that he's facing Arizona. So unlike his visits to other cities, he won't have that comfortable feeling of having been there and done that. His lone start in Arizona was back in 2006 and that was not a good one! Home runs have been a problem for Colon this season (11) and that might haunt him tonight, playing in what is one of the more hitter-friendly ball parks in the country!
This series is currently tied 1-1 and last year's rookie of the year Jacob DeGrom, who has been terrific again this season is se to face off against Josh Collmenter tomorrow. Tomorrow's pitching matchup should favor the Mets which means the Diamondbacks will likely need to win this game to at least split the series. That makes this game more of a 'must-win' game for Arizona than it normally would be. The D-Backs have been a much less error prone team this season. They’ve committed only 24 errors on the season compared to Mets' 34. They rank 3rd in pickoff attempts and catching runners trying to steal bases. They are also the side that has turned more double-plays on the season. The fielding has definitely improved compared to last year and yet that is something that casual MLB fans/bettors will not have taken notice of but we have. With the hitting, fielding and pitching edge all likely going to the Diamondbacks tonight, they should have a distinct advantage and win this game at home.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Diamondbacks are 3rd best in NL in preventing stolen bases
- Diamondbacks are 6-3 as short home favorites this season.
- Mets have won only 4 of 19 road games played at night this season!
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