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June 4, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)

Sports Profit System owns an unrivaled 81-59 record in NBA this season! The first game of the series is the toughest to predict however and it often gets easier from there as we can usually predict what adjustments the losing and winning coaches will make. For that reason, we are passing on game 1 of the Finals and have another MLB winner lined up for tonight. 
 

Take LA Dodgers (-108) on the Money Line against St. Louis Cardinals risking 3% of bankroll.
(Frias and Wacha must start for wager to have action)

We find this to be an extremely intriguing matchup for a number of reasons. These two teams just met recently in a 3 game series that took place out in St Louis. The Cardinals managed to come away with a 2 games to 1 victory over the Dodgers. With that series still fresh in the betting public's mind, it would be easy to assume that the Cardinals will continue their success as these two teams square off again. We don't necessarily believe that will be the case. While The Cardinals did manage to take that series from LA, it’s worth mentioning that the one game the Dodgers did win in that series featured both starting pitchers in tonight's contest! 

Michael Wacha has had an impressive season thus far. He has a very impressive 7-1 overall record with a respectable 2.24 ERA and thus far this season he has been even better on the road. He is a near perfect 5-0 in 6 starts on the highway and his ERA is an even more impressive 1.64. There is no doubt the betting public recognizes this and is eager to back Wacha at this price. Wacha's record and statistics are no doubt impressive, but that "1" in his record is credited to the Dodgers. They are the team that gave him his lone defeat this season. That was Wacha's worst performance of the season as he lasted under 6 innings giving up 4 runs while walking 3. That outing also happens to be the last time he saw action on the mound. Knowing that he has a chance to redeem himself, could add some extra motivation to his cause tonight, but it could also put a lot of pressure on his shoulders as he tries to perform. He'll want to atone and make up for a poor showing and that can sometimes have a snowball effect when he simply tries too hard to pitch perfectly and instead ends up making a mistake. 

Unlike Wacha, Dodgers pitcher Carlos Frias put on a beautiful performance against St Louis in that matchup as he went 7 strong innings giving up a total of just 5 hits. Prior to that start Frias had been coming off a miserable performance giving up 10 earned runs in just 4 innings against the Padres. The fact that he bounced back from that outing and threw a gem against what can be a hard hitting Cardinals team shows just how mentally strong this kid is. His performance against the Cardinals will have no doubt given him confidence in navigating this batting order and we wouldn't be surprised to see him duplicate those numbers in this start tonight. 

The Dodgers should also come into this contest with some extra motivation tonight given the way their game last night against the Colorado Rockies played out. The Dodgers has a 6-4 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning last night Yimi Garcia came into the game and had a complete meltdown on the mound allowing the Rockies to score 3 runs and win the game. It was a performance that left the Dodger's players stunned as all they could do was stand in the dugout and watch the game slip through their fingers. It was a frustrating way to lose a game, but we expect that they will use that frustration as fuel tonight to take their aggression out on the Cardinals. Let’s not forget that the Dodgers are back home tonight, a place where they have proven to be particularly tough to beat. 

While home field advantage isn't nearly as prevalent in major league baseball as it is in other sports such as basketball and football, the LA Dodgers have been a team that has seemingly made it a point to protect their home field. LA is 21-7 this season at Dodger stadium, which next to the St Louis Cardinals is the best home record in the Majors. In their last 57 home games, which extends back to last season, they are an impressive 37-14. Winning at Dodger Stadium has proven to be no easy task and given the way LA lost last night’s game we don't expect they will be looking to show any mercy in front of their home fans tonight. 

The Dodgers will be looking will certainly be looking for revenge from the way this series played out in St Louis. Looking at some of the matchups the Cardinals have had recently they have been on the fortunate that they have not needed their offense to produce many runs and have been on the fortunate end of some low scoring games. We believe that may hurt them in this contest tonight. The Dodgers lineup is full of explosive bats and is an offense that has shown their ability to put runs on the board, even against some of the best pitchers in the league. Michael Wacha may have an impressive record, however the Dodgers bats have proven their ability to rattle him on the mound and we expect that they do it again tonight as their offense musters just enough runs to come away with the closely contested victory. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Dodgers are 13-7 after a loss this season. 
  • St. Louis is 1-5 in their last six games as an underdog!  
  • St. Louis is 2-5 in their last seven games in Los Angeles.
  • Dodgers are 7-0 at home against a team with a winning road record!



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