July 28, 2015 (Posted at 5:00 PM ET)
Take NY Mets (-131) on the Money Line against San Diego Padres risking 3% of the bankroll.
(Syndergaard and Shields must start for wager to have action)
This is the point in the season where teams have big decisions to make in regards to how the rest of the season leading up to the playoffs plays out. Teams either turn into "Buyers" or "Sellers" at the Trade deadline, either attempting to make a late push into playoff contention or simply sell off some of their talent, essentially giving up on the current season and turning their focus to the future. This matchup tonight between the Mets and Padres features two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum and we believe that will weigh heavily into how this game tonight plays out.
After bolstering their team in the offseason, the San Diego Padres are looking to turn themselves into sellers at this year’s trade deadline and it just so happens that the Mets could be one of the landing spots for one of the players that they are looking to offload. The Mets could certainly use another offensive weapon to help bolster their batting order and Padre's slugger Justin Upton has been one of the names being tossed around. The Mets have already gotten some early returns on a trade they made last week with the Atlanta Braves as Juan sealed a victory off his former team, the LA Dodgers with a walk-off hit for the Mets on Sunday night and rumor is that they are still in line for more offensive help. Besides Upton, the team is eyeing the likes of Jay Bruce. This has to have them excited as a team and likely has allowed for a renewed sense of confidence which is something this team displayed earlier in the season.
James Shields will get the start tonight and he is yet another big name player that could be traded come the deadline later this week. While Shields is certainly an Ace on many rosters, being the subject of trade rumors and having so many unknowns in place can certainly occupy a lot of space in a pitcher's mind. Since going 7-0 with 2.51 walks per nine innings and a 7.2 run-support average in his first 12 starts to the season things have certainly tailed off for the right hander as he is just 1-3 with 4.56 walks per nine innings and a 2.8 RSA in his last nine starts. Shields also hasn't lasted past the sixth in any of his last three starts and has struggled on the road this season where his ERA elevates to an unimpressive 5.01 in 11 starts.
Noah Syndergaard will take the mound for the Mets tonight and he has certainly cemented his place in the rotation this season. With guys like Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom leading the way, Syndergaard adds another quality arm to the rotation and has gone 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA with 34 strikeouts over 34 innings in his last five starts. Like the Mets themselves, he has been particularly outstanding at home, going 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA this season. This is also a chance for the young pitcher to get revenge as it was the Padres who were responsible for his worst outing of the season when they tagged him for 7 runs over just four innings back in June! We expect Syndergaard to have a bounce back performance in this contest.
The Padres are also a team that has struggled offensively this season, especially on the road San Diego ranks 29th in the league in team batting average at .236 while hitting .239 on the road. The Padres on-base percentage sits at .293, which puts them at 30th in the league and they have a team slugging percentage of .370. They have also scored just 10 runs over their last five games and are scoring just 2.5 runs per game in their last 10 road games. San Diego may come into this game with a 3 game winning streak; however they have not been overly impressive in any of those outings. Meanwhile the Mets exploded for 15 runs over the weekend and even managed to get a win off of Zack Greinke in their last contest, something many team have not been able to do this season. New York should come into this contest confident and come away with a closely contest win to keep their momentum going. They have been an extremely tough team at CitiField this season having gone 34-16 on the season. It's worth noting that the Mets haven't lost a home series to the Padres since 2009 and we believe they will get a leg up in this series by winning the opener.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Mets are 13-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season!
- Mets are 25-6 in home games after a win this season.
- Padres are 1-5 when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.
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